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Offline matt608

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bitUSD marketcap
« on: October 28, 2014, 11:00:54 AM »

On coinmarketcap today I saw the bitUSD market cap went up from around $380,000 to over $1million, what's going on there?

Offline svk

Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2014, 11:24:00 AM »
There was some huge shorting action yesterday that more than tripled the current supply of bitUSD.

http://bitsharesblocks.com/blocks/block?id=858831

PS. I'm not sure about the price ratios etc of asset transactions after all the recent changes to shorting mechanics, I'm gonna have to go over them and make sure everything is still correct. Anyway the short answer is lots of shorting happened, so market cap went up.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 11:25:51 AM by svk »
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Offline 天籁

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2014, 11:38:08 AM »

Short    44.4745   34,240,435.40141    769,889.159

Bid        43.5169   16,101,215.99579    369,999.4489
BTS account: disneyland
PLAY account: playone

Offline matt608

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2014, 12:03:08 PM »
There was some huge shorting action yesterday that more than tripled the current supply of bitUSD.

http://bitsharesblocks.com/blocks/block?id=858831

PS. I'm not sure about the price ratios etc of asset transactions after all the recent changes to shorting mechanics, I'm gonna have to go over them and make sure everything is still correct. Anyway the short answer is lots of shorting happened, so market cap went up.

Ok so these bitUSD which have been shorted are mostly still for sale? (trying to understand).  It's not new money flowing in to bitUSD, it's someone who already had a big position in BTSX borrowing bitUSD and then putting up for sale i.e. shorting bitUSD, with the believe that BTSX would go down and they would be able to buy them back for a smaller amount of BTSX than they paid to borrow them?  It's happened on the same day as a big dump  went down on bter.  Could it be the same person deliberately planning to dump BTSX to profit from shorting bitUSD?  What is the likely cause of this action?

« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 12:06:08 PM by matt608 »

Offline mf-tzo

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2014, 12:08:31 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Offline matt608

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2014, 12:10:38 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken. 
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 12:17:14 PM by matt608 »

Offline Chuckone

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2014, 12:12:05 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

Offline matt608

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2014, 12:17:35 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

Ok so the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is because someone thinks BTSX will rise, but someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they?  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not that any new money/users are entering?
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 12:22:47 PM by matt608 »

Offline Chuckone

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2014, 12:25:57 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.

Offline matt608

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2014, 12:28:24 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.

Ok that makes sense, thanks.

Offline tonyk

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2014, 01:47:08 PM »
Observations:
One huge short (bitUSD) order was placed with relatively low interest rate (but not 0% interest); 5 min later a bitUSD buyer bought
close to 50% of that order worth of bitUSD.


Theory...

-I3 bought themselves about 370,000 BitUSD (in a single transaction, probably more total including some smaller ones);

Why?

- BM has stated that he does his accounting in USD (bitUSD) and is going to pay everybody in bitUSD; so having USDs is not an issue or opinion on the price movement of BTSX;
- Why 370K? This is pretty close to the total amount of all grandfathered shorts ,in my estimate, (so their existence is no longer an issue for the good market peg behavior).
-Why yesterday? Combination of several beneficial conditions - the new versions fixes (supposedly) the wrong yield calculations for the shorts; possibility to short at low interest rate, that the market presented;


Now if the above is all true the observations and questions that remain for me are:
It seems that the increase in the supply of bitUSD happened mainly during the last price drop of BTSX... Why those people still remain in bitUSD? I have several theories (aside from the most obvious one) but none of them is anywhere provable or too interesting.

@Svk - I believe you link is to the opening of a short order not to the execution of one.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 01:55:36 PM by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline biophil

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2014, 02:22:39 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.

You can buy bitUSD on Bter. Not a great onramp, but onramp no less.

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2


Offline Chuckone

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2014, 02:50:18 PM »
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.


Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.

You can buy bitUSD on Bter. Not a great onramp, but onramp no less.

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2

True. But with a 24h volume of 0.0BTC, I avoid mentioning it as useable on-ramp ;)

Offline marcelus

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2014, 06:11:44 PM »
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.


Offline matt608

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Re: bitUSD marketcap
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2014, 06:16:31 PM »
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Where has this emerged?
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 06:20:02 PM by matt608 »

 

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