Bitcoin is going nuts today

[Ander]

Bitcoin heading up once again, and this time BTSX looks like it might be moving up with it.  Lets hope.

[busygin]

My guess is that hedge fund money is accumulating and positioning for a drive to $10k/BTC once the ETFs are live.

You will see the log charts all over the media guaranteeing $10k per coin based on previous bubbles.

Retail investors will throw a few bucks into the ETFs and it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Next leg up to $100k will be retail + institutional + sovereign wealth trying to jump on the train, say 2-3 years.

By then BTS will be mature, investors will have gotten a taste of crypto-riches and the moon rocket will launch.

5 years BTC could be $100k and BTS could be $100.

That's too good to be true 
Historically, all financial bubbles didn't live for longer than a few years. Bitcoin doesn't have enough utility to justify such valuations, it's basically a ZX Spectrum computer in a growing PC market. If the price goes high enough, it will be easier for speculators to profit from shorting than from pumping it further. Actually, I do want BTC to go to ATH again, it would indeed spread the "taste of crypto-riches" and helped other crypto projects, including Bitshares. I just don't see it happening...

[oldman]

My guess is that hedge fund money is accumulating and positioning for a drive to $10k/BTC once the ETFs are live.

You will see the log charts all over the media guaranteeing $10k per coin based on previous bubbles.

Retail investors will throw a few bucks into the ETFs and it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Next leg up to $100k will be retail + institutional + sovereign wealth trying to jump on the train, say 2-3 years.

By then BTS will be mature, investors will have gotten a taste of crypto-riches and the moon rocket will launch.

5 years BTC could be $100k and BTS could be $100.

[busygin]

Bitcoin has about 3000BTC/day selling pressure from mining, so it's a matter of time when it takes over the flow of new money willing to buy. At $400 BTC needs about $1.2M per day of new money just to maintain the price (and "per day" includes all weekends and holidays around the globe!) Is there a really stable organic fiat inflow into bitcoin of this magnitude? I highly doubt. Wait a few weeks and the downtrend will resume.

Not everyone sells... in general aslong as volume is atleast $12M price is sustainable at that price. That is my general rule of thumb.

Not everyone sells on the same day as they mined them, that's true. But those who "hodl" are still potential sellers and are prone to panic if the price moves down fast.

[busygin]

Is there a really stable organic fiat inflow into bitcoin of this magnitude? I highly doubt. Wait a few weeks and the downtrend will resume.

I believe there is (at this 400 level).  Things have turned and they are now going to hype it up into a new bubble.  The massive money inflow will be able to absorb the mining coins for a while. 

Yes, but by "stable organic" I didn't mean coming from speculation. My wild guess is that the current inflow comes from Russia as it was discussed here
http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog-rouble-collpase-could-fuel-next-bitcion-run-153153403.html
Ones they have moved their bitcoins overseas, they will want to sell it for dollars. And if it happens together with a new downtrend beginning, they will want their dollars very fast 

[jsidhu]

Chessnut has said repeatedly that 3000cny is the med target and then wave V should come after that...

Until he changed his primary count today due to this price action.

I'm not an elliot wave expert or anything, I'm just following chessnut because he seems very good.  If he now says that 275 was the bottom, I now believe 275 was the bottom.

Oh.. I don't believe that he should because he's been on it for months... so funny he would change it based on an impulse.. but I agree he is good so if he says it... it must have merit... but I personally think we will be back anyway... gluck

[jsidhu]

Bitcoin has about 3000BTC/day selling pressure from mining, so it's a matter of time when it takes over the flow of new money willing to buy. At $400 BTC needs about $1.2M per day of new money just to maintain the price (and "per day" includes all weekends and holidays around the globe!) Is there a really stable organic fiat inflow into bitcoin of this magnitude? I highly doubt. Wait a few weeks and the downtrend will resume.

Not everyone sells... in general aslong as volume is atleast $12M price is sustainable at that price. That is my general rule of thumb.

[Ander]

At $400 BTC needs about $1.2M per day of new money just to maintain the price (and "per day" includes all weekends and holidays around the globe!)

Yes, thats why its been in a downtrend for 12 months.

Is there a really stable organic fiat inflow into bitcoin of this magnitude? I highly doubt. Wait a few weeks and the downtrend will resume.

I believe there is (at this 400 level).  Things have turned and they are now going to hype it up into a new bubble.  The massive money inflow will be able to absorb the mining coins for a while. 

Of course, after that occurs and the price is a lot higher, as soon as the incoming money dries up the mining coins will keep coming, and it will cause another bear market. 

This is just the nature of the bitcoin cycle.

[busygin]

Bitcoin has about 3000BTC/day selling pressure from mining, so it's a matter of time when it takes over the flow of new money willing to buy. At $400 BTC needs about $1.2M per day of new money just to maintain the price (and "per day" includes all weekends and holidays around the globe!) Is there a really stable organic fiat inflow into bitcoin of this magnitude? I highly doubt. Wait a few weeks and the downtrend will resume.

[liondani]

It's because Etherium was "ported" to Counterparty.

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11291.0

[Ander]

Chessnut has said repeatedly that 3000cny is the med target and then wave V should come after that...

Until he changed his primary count today due to this price action.

I'm not an elliot wave expert or anything, I'm just following chessnut because he seems very good.  If he now says that 275 was the bottom, I now believe 275 was the bottom.

[jsidhu]

We haven't had a wave V yet. But yea maybe... the seloff in alts seems the same as when it hit $1200.. bts taking a beating.

Truncated wave 5 after a blowout wave 3, that was the end of the bear market.

I didnt make this count, chessnut on the bitcointalk forum did, but I now believe it after the price action today.  I do not think we will return to sub 300 bitcoin.  Ever.

Chessnut has said repeatedly that 3000cny is the med target and then wave V should come after that...

LTC didn't hit target either... $2.xx so I think we will revisit once more.

[Method-X]

It's because Etherium was "ported" to Counterparty.

[vlight]

Is there anyone doing Glenn Neely type wave analysis for Bitcoin ?

[Ander]

We haven't had a wave V yet. But yea maybe... the seloff in alts seems the same as when it hit $1200.. bts taking a beating.

Truncated wave 5 after a blowout wave 3, that was the end of the bear market.

I didnt make this count, chessnut on the bitcointalk forum did, but I now believe it after the price action today.  I do not think we will return to sub 300 bitcoin.  Ever.