Author Topic: 100% delegate pay in USD could be $200/month due to slippage  (Read 7973 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.


Offline toast

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4001
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: nikolai
You are right and it is more valuable to think of it in terms of how much direct buying pressure you need to have to sustain the price (roughly income = expenses). If BTS doesn't have real income then it depends on continuous positive speculation until it is profitable. Brutal =[
Do not use this post as information for making any important decisions. The only agreements I ever make are informal and non-binding. Take the same precautions as when dealing with a compromised account, scammer, sockpuppet, etc.

Offline monsterer

I also counted the 80BTC+ at BTS/CNY at BTC38. I am counting 20 BTC at BTER now, and 18 BTC at BTS/BTC at BTC38.  All within 10%.

Ok, so if you cash out using every exchange possible and in every currency possible and somehow all manage to get this into USD (we didn't even consider the slippage going from BTC->USD), maybe you can do so within 10% of the best price. For 20, 100% delegates.

But it isn't going to be easy, by any definition. The whole point of this thread is to get people to realise that best price valuations are misleading at best, and meaningless at worst.
My opinions do not represent those of metaexchange unless explicitly stated.
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline CLains

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2606
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: clains
I also counted the 80BTC+ at BTS/CNY at BTC38. I am counting 20 BTC at BTER now, and 18 BTC at BTS/BTC at BTC38.  All within 10%.

Offline monsterer

In practice if you go 10% down on the orderbook at BTC38 and BTER you can sell BTS for 100 BTC. So if 20 100% delegates decide to cash our their monthly earnings in one instant they go 10% below price.

Last time I checked on BTER, the entire buy side orderbook for BTS/BTC was only ~40 BTC deep. Looking at BTC38, the situation isn't much different.
My opinions do not represent those of metaexchange unless explicitly stated.
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline CLains

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2606
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: clains
In practice if you go 10% down on the orderbook at BTC38 and BTER you can sell BTS for 100 BTC. So if 20 100% delegates decide to cash our their monthly earnings in one instant they go 10% below price.

Offline monsterer

So yes if you sell everything into the buyorderbook in one go then you get that price, but it will instantly bounce back, and if you put a sellorder it will be gobbled up within the day.

Your other points are all about speculation. The point of this thread is to discuss the difference between using the best price as the value estimator, which assumes there is infinite liquidity and doing all it 'correctly' by considering the volume at each price level.

Your claims about the the behavior of the orderbook, 'bouncing back' depend heavily on the liquidity and resilience of the orderbook in the market in question. BTS is a very illiquid market, so I wouldn't expect the behavior you're claiming to be true in practice.
My opinions do not represent those of metaexchange unless explicitly stated.
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline CLains

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2606
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: clains
Market price is information about what each share is worth. It is not just some random price floating in the air.

Market price depends on the volume you are trying to sell/buy. If you are using the best price, you have to understand that is the best possible estimate and is heavily biased, especially in liquid markets.

Volume increases when the price moves up or down. Think for a second about the whale at Bitstamp who sold 20 000 Bitcoin in one go. There was certainly not 20 000 worth of BTC in the buyorder book. In fact,



The whale put that sellorder at less than 10% below the market price, and it was gobbled up within the day. If someone sees a sellorder that they judge to be valued too low, they buy it - expecting profit. Arbitrage happens not just between assets, but also across time for the same asset, in the sense that if a price is artificially low then the gap will be rapidly plugged by traders.

So yes if you sell everything into the buyorderbook in one go then you get that price, but it will instantly bounce back, and if you put a sellorder it will be gobbled up within the day.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2014, 12:33:29 pm by CLains »

Offline Riverhead

Are you saying spreads and trading fees will net a 100% delegate $200 a month when their gross pay of $2200?  Or are you saying they lose $200 due fees and spreads differences in market orders?
He's saying the price isn't real because there isn't enough depth currently to support high pay delegates cashing out to fiat.

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

Ggozzo

  • Guest
Are you saying spreads and trading fees will net a 100% delegate $200 a month when their gross pay of $2200?  Or are you saying they lose $200 due fees and spreads differences in market orders?

Offline fluxer555

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 749
    • View Profile
You're also off in that Delegates won't be selling once a month. They can sell multiple times a day.

Also, you get a 1% boost when depositing on Bter. Might want to factor that into calculations.

Offline monsterer

Current prices are around .105 CNY per BTS, or about 1.71 cents.

128300 * .0171 = $2194 a month. 

So around 2200 bucks a month for a full pay delegate at current prices of BTS, on the most liquid market.

Your 700 number is way off. ;)

Please, please read the first post in this thread. :)
My opinions do not represent those of metaexchange unless explicitly stated.
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

pollux

  • Guest
Realistically, delegates who need to liquidate pay will set limit orders on exchanges or will hedge with bit assets out of savings or by using credit to borrow until bitAssets are more liquid.

As soon as you set a limit order you become a speculator. This is incompatible with the need to convert to fiat.

Every delegate is paid in BTS already. There's risk relative to fiat in holding BTS for any time. Following your logic delegates are all speculators whose choices are incompatible with the need to convert to fiat.

I respect the original point, but I think that an argument appealing to the moral hazard of "speculation" is absurd. We all speculating anytime we make any financial choice.

Offline Ander

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3506
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: Ander
A calculation of current max pay rate:


There are 360 blocks per hour.  The delegate gets 1/101 of these, and thus creates 3.564 blocks per hour.

Each time they create a block they get 50 BTS.  Therefore they get 178.2 BTS per hour. 

178.2 * 24 hour/day * 30 day/month =  128300 BTS per month for a full pay delegate.

Current prices are around .105 CNY per BTS, or about 1.71 cents.

128300 * .0171 = $2194 a month. 


So around 2200 bucks a month for a full pay delegate at current prices of BTS, on the most liquid market.

Your 700 number is way off. ;)
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline monsterer

You need to not look at the lowest volume market.

Nobody has any USD on bter, thats why there is no volume in that market.

Which is why I did my maths with the BTS/BTC market on BTER. And if you read this thread through, you'll see that using CNY on bt38.com yields somewhere near $700 / month at 100% pay rate.
My opinions do not represent those of metaexchange unless explicitly stated.
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads