Why BTS is falling like this?

[Ander]

These are the overlaid market caps from the last 30 days. NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice the massive positive correlation

Indeed, our correlation with NXT is even stronger than our correlation with Bitcoin.

Perhaps because NXT is the most similar thing out there to Bitshares.  Transparent forging is the most similar algorithm to DPoS, and both have user assets.

[cass]

I've given up trying to understand price movements of crypto currencies.. The only thing I'm certain of is that I'll always buy and/or sell at the wrong time, so for now I'm just holding... If I could I'd just never look at the price, but the downside to working on bitsharesblocks is that I end up seeing the recent price history chart very often!

yup same on my side here .. 

[jsidhu]

Here is the test... we've hit support (0.096cny) now we either make a new low and fall like a sinking ship or we rise from here... lets see what smart money wants to do.

[monsterer]

You're partly right. I see it in trading, where they compare how 'correlated' two things are. And though I can't do the maths, I do see BTSX is highly correlated to BTC and then other 2.0 vs. just an independent price.

Here's the evidence, and this was a PITA to do, so hope you appreciate it!



These are the overlaid market caps from the last 30 days. NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice the massive positive correlation

[liondani]

We badly need market maker bots in the bitUSD market providing liquidity.

Even if they operate at a loss for a while, the positive impact that it would have on bitshares is well worth it.

Just look at Nubits.  Everyone thinks nubits works great and is an amazing technology, simply because they are providing liquidity to the market.  Everyone thinks bitAssets barely work at all, and Nubits is way better, because we dont provide any liquidity.


If there was actual liquidity in the market, then people could use it, they could actually create shorts, and so on.

This is why we are working on relative bid/ask orders to help aid the creation of liquidity.

 

thanks you are reminding this to us when ever you can!
With this implementation we will be all market makers 

PS An estimation when this future gets implemented on the client ? I can't wait ! 

[bytemaster]

We badly need market maker bots in the bitUSD market providing liquidity.

Even if they operate at a loss for a while, the positive impact that it would have on bitshares is well worth it.

Just look at Nubits.  Everyone thinks nubits works great and is an amazing technology, simply because they are providing liquidity to the market.  Everyone thinks bitAssets barely work at all, and Nubits is way better, because we dont provide any liquidity.


If there was actual liquidity in the market, then people could use it, they could actually create shorts, and so on.

This is why we are working on relative bid/ask orders to help aid the creation of liquidity.

[Ander]

We badly need market maker bots in the bitUSD market providing liquidity.

Even if they operate at a loss for a while, the positive impact that it would have on bitshares is well worth it.

Just look at Nubits.  Everyone thinks nubits works great and is an amazing technology, simply because they are providing liquidity to the market.  Everyone thinks bitAssets barely work at all, and Nubits is way better, because we dont provide any liquidity.


If there was actual liquidity in the market, then people could use it, they could actually create shorts, and so on.

[matt608]

 - Post-dilution/sharedrop fallout and confusion
 - Whales dumping in such a small market can suppress the price or pump it even while majority market sentiment remains largely unchanged
 - Clarification from devs that the light clients/mobile wallets/other upgrades wont allow marketing to start until early next year


Bitcoin going up or down isn't any stronger a factor now than it was while bitshares was outpacing the alt coins in an upward direction.  Bitcoin has a big influence on BTS price but is not important in deciding why the price is going down consistently and faster than most other alts which also rise and fall with the bitcoin tide.

All in all the immediate future (rest of 2014) is uncertain, but that's not long at all and you never know how cautious people are to not miss the expected rise.  With such as small cap it only takes a few million to flow into BTS to raise the price massively.  A successful marketing campaign that raises bitasset usage and volume up dramatically will call the attention of a giant pile of money come running and pour itself into BTS.  That's what I am betting on.

[liondani]

I want to buy as much as I can at these levels and I can't. I am trying to sort bitusd but my orders don't complete since there is no much demand for new bitusd to be created? I think we should find a way to short bitusd whenever we want by pledging BTS collateral...But then again I am still missing the full details of the market engine and how it works so this may be ok as it works right now..

I think that's  a big problem for BTS to grow. I had shorts with 14% interest for days without luck to execute! That's insane.... Would it be maybe a good idea to give priority to shorts  if they give more than X% interest? For example more than 5%,or better more than the average interest of the last year !!!!.... I think in that way the market cap of bit-assets will grow rapidly and the average interest for bit-assets  will increase dramatically... so the demand for them also...

[Ander]

A good quote from Paul Tudor Jones "Do the trade that makes you wan't to puke"...  I havn't seen many BTS bulls looking for the barf bags lately

Really?  When I bought at .90 CNY at the start of october I felt so bad I wanted to die.  And I feel about the same now, and I have a buy order in. 

Prices are back where they were before bitassets were even released.  Essentially the market is discounting everything that has happened in bitshares since the summer.


Its so bad, that I have learned not to market buy, and not even to put in a limit order at the current offer price, but to put an order 5% under the current offer.  Because no matter how ridiculous I think the price is, those buys below the offer ALWAYS get hit.  Dumpers always come in and push the price down 5-10% in one large sell.


I think the main problem is that there are probably only a hundred or so people in the world that actually understand the BTS paid delegates plan, and its benefits, and all of us are on this message board.  And there are thousands of crypto investors out there who bought BTS who have literally no clue what is going on with it, and they just see 'dilution' and the price declining, and they just dump and dump. 


At this point we really need the marketing campaign, we need the bitshares info website back up, and we need press releases explaining what has happened and what is coming next, and getting people interested and researching bitshares again.  Once this happens we should get a lot of buying power and the price should rise.  Until it happens we will just keep going lower. 

[hpenvy]

It's been falling since this thread & it's impact started setting in...

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9603.0

What the market really wants is what BTSX was.

I doubt this is it. Bitshares just launched and the price started to move up passing coins that were there for a year. When people saw it on CMC passing other currency most probably bought it without even knowing what it is or understanding it. Probably with fear of "missing the train". Now those people looking to make a quick buck are bailing and the people who actually believe in it are left.

So essentially it was a pump and dumb.

I think the same thing would have happened with or without all of those proposals.

 

[Mysto]

It's been falling since this thread & it's impact started setting in...

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9603.0

What the market really wants is what BTSX was.

I doubt this is it. Bitshares just launched and the price started to move up passing coins that were there for a year. When people saw it on CMC passing other currency most probably bought it without even knowing what it is or understanding it. Probably with fear of "missing the train". Now those people looking to make a quick buck are bailing and the people who actually believe in it are left.

So essentially it was a pump and dumb.

I think the same thing would have happened with or without all of those proposals.

[clout]

It's been falling since this thread & it's impact started setting in...

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9603.0

I expect it to recover & still have a great shot unless they unleash a clearly flawed sharedrop strategy. BitAssets are just so freaking awesome, outside of development though, the direction BitShares has taken to keep key talent involved, passionate & not feeling constrained has come at a high short term price. They're probably worth it though. But if there's a credible competitor that looks pretty much exactly like Daniel's original vision for BTSX, BTS could be in trouble imo.

i missed this thread... its somehow weird, looks like MLM scheme

i think some people leaving  because of concept change, look here
http://www.coindesk.com/bitshares-p2p-trading-platform-to-offer-dividends-on-bitcoins/
this article of august 2013 promoted P2P trading platform aka forex broker engine,
that was initial concept, now its transformed to open sourced system which have no value if there no liquidity,
liquidity can be achieved only through partnering with large brokers (as i see this)
if we going to avoid to compete with forex by changing concept i see no point to wait when BTS fall to Vaporware category
oh..i forgot there are 2 years until development will be finished..its our main milestone for now?

PS by forex engine i mean possibility to trade eur/usd straight without btsx in a middle because its impossible and useless for average Joe to predict how btsx rate will move over USD

The concept has not changed at all... the point is that the system does not need a broker. The blockchain is a broker which stores the value of these assets but has no ties to the underlying.

[jsidhu]

All alts falling in prep for btc rally which wont come yet.. they will be back.

We need to see bts btc rise here if its going to take the throne... we are one strong annoincement away.

[Crossover]

It's been falling since this thread & it's impact started setting in...

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9603.0

I expect it to recover & still have a great shot unless they unleash a clearly flawed sharedrop strategy. BitAssets are just so freaking awesome, outside of development though, the direction BitShares has taken to keep key talent involved, passionate & not feeling constrained has come at a high short term price. They're probably worth it though. But if there's a credible competitor that looks pretty much exactly like Daniel's original vision for BTSX, BTS could be in trouble imo.

i missed this thread... its somehow weird, looks like MLM scheme

i think some people leaving  because of concept change, look here
http://www.coindesk.com/bitshares-p2p-trading-platform-to-offer-dividends-on-bitcoins/
this article of august 2013 promoted P2P trading platform aka forex broker engine,
that was initial concept, now its transformed to open sourced system which have no value if there no liquidity,
liquidity can be achieved only through partnering with large brokers (as i see this)
if we going to avoid to compete with forex by changing concept i see no point to wait when BTS fall to Vaporware category
oh..i forgot there are 2 years until development will be finished..its our main milestone for now?

PS by forex engine i mean possibility to trade eur/usd straight without btsx in a middle because its impossible and useless for average Joe to predict how btsx rate will move over USD