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Offline toast


How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.
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Offline monsterer

Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2014, 10:36:17 PM »
How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:



Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.
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Offline toast

Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2014, 10:39:52 PM »
Ok, now how do you estimate how actually adding $x of sell pressure per unit time will affect the price? Can we only inflate and immediately sell as the cap is rising or not?
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Offline bytemaster

Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2014, 10:46:00 PM »
Ok, now how do you estimate how actually adding $x of sell pressure per unit time will affect the price? Can we only inflate and immediately sell as the cap is rising or not?

You can estimate ability of the market to handle sell pressure as a percentage of daily volume.   A development team funded at $100K per month would be able to liquidate in a single day and move the price at most a percent or two.  The rest of the month would see normal price action.   

In reality dilution at these levels has no meaningful effect on the price.   In theory developers should commit to keeping over 50% of their pay in BTS and thus the "sell pressure" should only be half the dilution rate.   
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Offline luckybit

Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2014, 10:52:04 PM »
How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

I think the floor is around 20-25 million market cap. When we are in the same range as Dogecoin then I'd say that is the floor.

That means hold onto your BitUSD if you're going to wait it out or slowly buy BitUSD over the next few weeks. The only way I see something breaking us out of this is if marketing kicks in and new people enter the market. No need blood and people will drain their stashes because there is an opportunity cost to holding BitUSD.
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Offline Ander

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2014, 10:53:49 PM »
I think that as soon as the marketing campaign actually starts that there should be enough incoming buy pressure that any sells from dilution should be negligible.

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Offline Ander

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2014, 11:03:47 PM »
Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:

Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.

I agree that the dominant factor was probably just the crypto bear market, not inflation.  But inflation did probably have some effect (there were definitely a couple periods where we dropped 10% more than other cryptos, right after dilution announcements and plan changes.


Also, while BTS performed similarly to NXT recently, both have performed weakly relative to the average altcoin during this period, and both actually had periods of terrible PR during this period.  NXT was plagued by horrible PR during the whole bluemeanie theft fiasco. 

(People were accusing him of stealing a million NXT by not delivering on what he promised to develop, he claimed he wasnt paid, he then revealed personal info of prominent NXT community members including calling their workplace and trying to get them fired from jobs, etc).

I was following NXT at the time because I had some, and it was approximately as horrible as all the FUD in bitshares, where we had all these posters saying I3 was a scam and had robbed them and calling bytemaster 'the bug' and so on.


Compare that to the charts of altcoins that have had good PR during this time, such as Counterparty and Ripple.  I do think the bad PR had some effect.  I would say that you are correct in saying it wasnt the #1 cause however.
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Offline mf-tzo

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2014, 11:14:31 PM »
Right...If long term members in this community expect the low to be $20-$25 mil then the low will be $5 - $10 mil... Great...
Am I the only one in here shorting bitusd?? What's wrong with you people?? Is this such a bad move integrating DNS and Vote in BTS with 20% dilution??  Imagine what will happen if in the future for some reason there is a proposal to further inflate BTS by acquiring Music or Play..
lol..The business plan doesn't work very well currently...

Offline Ander

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2014, 11:20:46 PM »
Right...If long term members in this community expect the low to be $20-$25 mil then the low will be $5 - $10 mil... Great...

I thought the low would be 2 cents, and then it wasnt, so I had to accept the new reality. :)
I've learned better than to think there is some price which it is impossible to go below.  In anything. 
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Offline Empirical1.1

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2014, 11:26:09 PM »
How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:



Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.

That's wrong. Look at the 180 day graph of NXT vs. that of BitShares.

NXT has been in a long term downtrend since June. All you've done is overlay two equities that currently happen to be in a downtrend. As they're both priced in & effected by BTC a lot of the variance in their downtrend will be highly correlated.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2014, 11:40:25 PM by Empirical1.1 »

Offline liondani

Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2014, 11:37:02 PM »
Right...If long term members in this community expect the low to be $20-$25 mil then the low will be $5 - $10 mil... Great...
Am I the only one in here shorting bitusd?? What's wrong with you people?? Is this such a bad move integrating DNS and Vote in BTS with 20% dilution??  Imagine what will happen if in the future for some reason there is a proposal to further inflate BTS by acquiring Music or Play..
lol..The business plan doesn't work very well currently...

My only hope is that, because I witness a lot of depression from many of us the last days (me included), that maybe in reality its the right  time we MUST buy more BTS(or short bitAssets like mf-tzo)... just saying...
(please don't blame me if I am proven in future to be wrong... )
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Offline Ander

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2014, 11:37:17 PM »
Ok, now how do you estimate how actually adding $x of sell pressure per unit time will affect the price? Can we only inflate and immediately sell as the cap is rising or not?

If you are talking about the effect of one single paid delegate selling all their shares into the market as they get them, the effect is negligible. 

If you are talking about what would happen if 101 full pay delegates all sold all their shares into the market as soon as they got them, then lets take a look:


btc38 has roughly 10 million shares in volume per day.  101 full paid delegates would get 432000 BTS per day.   They would represent ~4% of the daily volume in terms of new sell pressure.  I think that this would be enough to impact the market, but not completely tank it.


Obviously, you get more value for your shares if you dilute when prices are high, during a bull cycle, rather than diluting deep in a bear market.  (I dont think anyone could argue that we are deep in a bear market, even if you think its going to get even worse). 

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Offline arhag

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2014, 11:42:33 PM »
How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:



Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.

I created a nicer plot if you want to compare the price of BTSX vs NXT. They are all priced in USD but I also included BTC (or at least BTC/10000) in the plot for comparison as well. This is over a time period of the last 90 days.


Offline liondani

Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2014, 11:44:35 PM »
Ok, now how do you estimate how actually adding $x of sell pressure per unit time will affect the price? Can we only inflate and immediately sell as the cap is rising or not?

If you are talking about the effect of one single paid delegate selling all their shares into the market as they get them, the effect is negligible. 

If you are talking about what would happen if 101 full pay delegates all sold all their shares into the market as soon as they got them, then lets take a look:


btc38 has roughly 10 million shares in volume per day.  101 full paid delegates would get 432000 BTS per day.   They would represent ~4% of the daily volume in terms of new sell pressure.  I think that this would be enough to impact the market, but not completely tank it.


Obviously, you get more value for your shares if you dilute when prices are high, during a bull cycle, rather than diluting deep in a bear market.  (I dont think anyone could argue that we are deep in a bear market, even if you think its going to get even worse).

the scenario that all delegates sell all their paid bts (with this prices) every month is at least ... "science fiction"... please...
(and consider the average payrate for all delegates will be low even in a couple of months....)
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Offline Ander

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Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2014, 11:47:33 PM »
the scenario that all delegates sell all their paid bts (with this prices) every month is at least ... "science fiction"... please...
(and consider the average payrate for all delegates will be low even in a couple of months....)

I agree. I didnt mean to imply that this would occur.

The reality is that the dilution is very tame, and should have only a small impact, especially if we only have 10 or 20 paid delegates.  Even if they are all selling.
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