Author Topic: Is this the bottom?  (Read 10960 times)

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Offline Ander

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Price action so far is very bullish!


Also: more whale signalling sighted.  Someone bought 400k shares at .094 and put up a 1.5 million buy wall there.  Then a 6 million sell wall appeared at .095 and .096, and then disappeared again within seconds.  Then the First guy moved his 1.5M buy wall down to .090.  Then someone bought 300k up to .097.    Very interesting, I wish I knew what it meant.

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Offline Ander

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A closeup of wave V of C (this week).

Note the positive divergence on MACD.  This is what makes me think the decline might be over.

There is also a positive divergence on 4h MACD, between the recent .081 low and the .084 low at the beginning of november. 


My final piece of evidence that this might be the bottom is that when bitcoin tanked an hour ago, from 365 to 350, BTS not only didnt drop with it, but actually managed to rise from .083 to .087.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2014, 02:46:00 am by Ander »
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zerosum

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I used other highly unscientific methods to call the bottom as well.
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11569.msg152504#msg152504

'Other', because I consider the technical analyses voodoo science, sorry nothing personal; actually I think they are helpful if you put like 10-15% weight on the technical analyses results.

But honestly - I have no clue, if this is indeed the bottom.

Offline Ander

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I think there is a good chance that this is the bottom in BTS or very close to it.

The elliot wave count at this point looks simple enough that even I, an amateur, can count it:



I labeled the august rise as a I, because it was the first major move up since BTS began trading this summer.  Of course, people paid various prices for their BTS by donating to AGS or donating PTS, but I dont know how to count all that. 

The entire decline since August looks like like a 3-3-5 ABC.  Wave 3 of C extended due to the terrible sentiment at that time, due to the dilution and merger and all the associated pain.

Note the divergence in he MACD.  We are at a slightly lower low for wave 5 of C of II, but the MACD is much higher. 

The blue wave III arrow is not meant to indicate a timeframe or a price target, it only indicates that the next rise has begun.


Note that wave 5 of C is not necessarily complete yet.  We could continue down into new lows to complete 5 of C.  The decline could be over but it is not necessarily completed yet. 
A rise above .117 CNY or so should indicate that 5 of C was finished and we are in wave 3. 
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