Author Topic: ripple rally  (Read 44803 times)

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Offline pendragon3

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Ok, I misunderstood your answer. I thought you were saying swift only transferred $22M / day! So, what is the true daily volume?

I don't know that answer but still... even if it is trillions a swift message will  cost you $20 irrespective of how much money you transfer..

The whole argument here is I am trying to compare "swift" as a company with "ripple" as a company (which obviously will provide a better and much cheaper service than swift in the future) and Bitshares company..

So if "swift" as a company is worth now $20 - $40 bil then "ripple" as a company worthing $2.5 bil is overvalued..
BTS as a company worth anything below $500 mil is way undervalued... Now which one of these have the most upside potential with the least risk? that is the question to be answered and i think the answer is obvious...

I think that's over complicating matters; to get a ballpark idea of the relative valuations, just using transaction volume alone will give you some idea. Then you can use the same metric to compare bitshares current valuation to what it would be if it replaced n% of the transaction volume of swift/ripple.

I don't think ripple XRP will replace Swift anytime soon, if ever. Swift is evolving and adapting, and the shareholders of Swift are the very institutions that use it. And if the value of replacing Swift with ripple ever grew large enough to make it worthwhile, institutions would just create their own fork rather than give up all the value.

Offline bluebit

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How far are the developers in getting BTC to be directly sent to a BTS address?

I'm working on it :)

Check my progress here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=12317.0

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Offline fuzzy

How far are the developers in getting BTC to be directly sent to a BTS address?

I'm working on it :)

Check my progress here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=12317.0

Keep rocking it Monsterer   +5%
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Offline monsterer

How far are the developers in getting BTC to be directly sent to a BTS address?

I'm working on it :)

Check my progress here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=12317.0
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Offline bluebit

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How far are the developers in getting BTC to be directly sent to a BTS address?
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Offline mf-tzo

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anyway... the important thing is one. Ripple is expensive, BTS is cheap. So everyone should buy BTS now or  :'( later..

Offline monsterer

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Ok, I misunderstood your answer. I thought you were saying swift only transferred $22M / day! So, what is the true daily volume?

I don't know that answer but still... even if it is trillions a swift message will  cost you $20 irrespective of how much money you transfer..

The whole argument here is I am trying to compare "swift" as a company with "ripple" as a company (which obviously will provide a better and much cheaper service than swift in the future) and Bitshares company..

So if "swift" as a company is worth now $20 - $40 bil then "ripple" as a company worthing $2.5 bil is overvalued..
BTS as a company worth anything below $500 mil is way undervalued... Now which one of these have the most upside potential with the least risk? that is the question to be answered and i think the answer is obvious...

I think that's over complicating matters; to get a ballpark idea of the relative valuations, just using transaction volume alone will give you some idea. Then you can use the same metric to compare bitshares current valuation to what it would be if it replaced n% of the transaction volume of swift/ripple.
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Offline mf-tzo

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Quote
Ok, I misunderstood your answer. I thought you were saying swift only transferred $22M / day! So, what is the true daily volume?

I don't know that answer but still... even if it is trillions a swift message will  cost you $20 irrespective of how much money you transfer..

The whole argument here is I am trying to compare "swift" as a company with "ripple" as a company (which obviously will provide a better and much cheaper service than swift in the future) and Bitshares company..

So if "swift" as a company is worth now $20 - $40 bil then "ripple" as a company worthing $2.5 bil is overvalued..
BTS as a company worth anything below $500 mil is way undervalued... Now which one of these have the most upside potential with the least risk? that is the question to be answered and i think the answer is obvious... 
« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 02:32:35 pm by mf-tzo »

Offline monsterer

Swift payment 22 mil daily messages transfer billions worldwide.

Ok, I misunderstood your answer. I thought you were saying swift only transferred $22M / day! So, what is the true daily volume?
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Offline mf-tzo

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Swift payment 22 mil daily messages transfer billions worldwide. Banks charge $20 per message their clients for that message.

Ripple 42 mil daily volume transfer now at its peak $3-$4 millions and charge something like $0.0000001 or something for per transfer in the form of destroying xrps as dividends...

Swift generates $440 mil per day income and for simplicity this is the income that is split between banks and the "swift" company so total worth $130 bill market per annum and if we split this by the number of who actually asks for swift confimration etc etc the whole swift system shouldn't be worth more than $40 bil.. and if we take into account actual costs for swift then the whole swift shouldn't be worth more than $20 bil maybe.. That is why I think that XRP as a payment protocol is way overvalued now..



« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 02:26:03 pm by mf-tzo »

Offline monsterer

I may have it wrong but I took the c22 mil daily swift messages from the official data of swift website.

I don't think that this volume can be compared with the 42 mil volume of ripple to judge if ripple is undervalued or not since it is different things.

How are they different things? Transaction volume is transaction volume. The market cap will be proportional to that.
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Offline mf-tzo

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I may have it wrong but I took the c22 mil daily swift messages from the official data of swift website.

I don't think that this volume can be compared with the 42 mil volume of ripple to judge if ripple is undervalued or not since it is different things.

But ripple as a company doesn't generate income. The only profitability comes from 1) burning xrps at each transaction (dividends to shareholders) 2) pure speculation about how much this service should be worth.. That is why although ripple is amazing and will be in our day lives in the future I am not convinced that it is not a huge bubble now ready to pop.

Taking into account the quality and number of the gateways, the fact that initial shareholders can dump xrps anytime and crash the market I think ripple is very expensive (cough cough...ripple FUD)...

Now let's see BTS... That monster will be served as a secured decentralized bank that no one can confiscate your assets, it will become user friendly and easy for forex trading as ripple and will be by protocol a profitable company, it's future potential will be affected by future demand and speculation as ripple. It is way undervalued now and has the potential to be worth trillions assuming half of the people in earth decide to use this platform as a bank instead of current banks.

Of course if xrp becomes adopted as a reserve currency as usd then it is a completely different story and ripple will be worth trillions as well..

Please someone correct me if my logic is not correct. If I underestimate ripple and I overestimate BTSI would like to be proven wrong now rather than next year...

Offline bitsapphire

Would there be any interest for a ripple gateway of BTS and bitAssets? Looks simple enough to setup, no large R&D required. I think bitUSD, bitCNY, etc might be a hit on ripple and it would get decent liquidity into Bitshares.
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Offline monsterer

Average daily transactions using swift is c. 21 - 22 mil

That low, eh? Well in that case ripple is already overvalued because the ripple daily transaction volume is $42M.
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Offline mf-tzo

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Average daily transactions using swift is c. 21 - 22 mil and assuming that a bank will charge something like $20 per swift message to their clients and assuming that everyone is asking for that is it correct to assume a daily income of $440 mil x 300 days p.a so maximum of $132 bil?
Now take from that number other operational costs and that at least half of people will not ask for a swift confirmation Swift market cap as a technology should not be worth more than $40 bil right?

So would it be fair to assume that ripple maximum market cap, assuming that it completely replace swift to all banks will never reach more than $40 bil? And currently valued at c$2.5 bil. So isn't it a bit unrealistic for someone to believe that by investing in ripple now he may have x 15 his investment only and if ripple fully replaces swift and is used by all banks?

Now do you want me to run some arbitrary numbers about BTS potential market cap? I bet that x15 of the investment will be much more realistic than the above scenario, since BTS is intended to be a dentralized bank for forex trading and not just a payment replacement system and protocol..

Of course I may have it all wrong so I would like to hear your thoughts...