Author Topic: Vitalik on stable currencies and POS  (Read 28997 times)

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Offline vbuterin

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Why should the MoE and the UoA be screwed (what does "screwed" mean here?) in case of a recession. I assume by recession you mean that the productivity goes down and everyone tries to get hold of the SoV (SoV as Dan described it). Do you mean that the deflation would change prices too much so that the SoV would not fulfill its function as a MoE and a UoA anymore?

By "screwed" I mean the following chain of events:

1. Recession hits. People get scared of business, pile into "safe" assets, ie. the SoV
2. SoV price goes up
3. MoE/UoA price goes up at the same time as a consequence, leading to expensive consequences like having to renegotiate wages, prices being out of whack for a time, debts becoming unexpectedly unsustainable, etc.

So basically yes.

Offline santaclause102

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The basic macroeconomic reason not to have a fixed-supply asset simultaneously be an store-of-value, medium-of-exchange and unit-of-account is so that if a recession hits and the SoV becomes a safe haven asset you don't have the MoE and UoA getting screwed up as well.
Why should the MoE and the UoA be screwed (what does "screwed" mean here?) in case of a recession. I assume by recession you mean that the productivity goes down and everyone tries to get hold of the SoV (SoV as Dan described it). Do you mean that the deflation would change prices too much so that the SoV would not fulfill its function as a MoE and a UoA anymore?
If I interpreted that right I would argue that it comes down to how people perceive money and what they expect form it. Dan's position that a price stable currency is unsustainable long term is reasonable to me. Therefore price stable money with the UoA function as implied by you might not be something that people could want if there was no externalizing of costs by a state. I guess people want a price stable money (-> UoA as implicitly defined by you) because they are used to it but do not see the long term negative effect it has.

To me the all interesting question is how exactly debt based money and the structural necessity for the circumstance that "the rich (the lenders) are getting richer and the poor (the borrowers) are getting poorer to a degree where the poor can not pay back the debt" are connected. "The poor" in the statement above mostly equal the tax payers since the state is the biggest borrower.

If the state/the FED has the stated goal of price stability (let's assume 0% inflation; inflation here in the sense that the same money buys the same basket of goods) and the economy grows to some degree then there will be inflation in the sense of an increase in money supply at the rate the economy grows (given the fed can estimate eco. growth accurately). So everyone would be better of under these circumstances to invest the money into the growing economy instead of holding it.

Now there are two reasons why "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer": 1) The "rich" have more resources to invest better than the the investors they compete with (more education, time, connections/inside knowledge, the the ability to hold assets for a long time / no need to cash out to buy food/housing etc., scalability effects of capital (paying someone to invest for you is more efficient with more money)). 2) The inflation of the money supply equals debt of the government which is very likely to result in the self-reinforcing "the rich get richer effect" because any state where the people are uneducated about the trade off decisions of their government (including the impossibility to realize those trade offs for the voter / public due to the complexity of decisions) and/or where particularistic interests rule the state and/or where costs can be socialized is likely to increase the debt to a degree (this is now the case in US/EU/JP I strongly guess) where it is not possible anymore to pay back the debt because the the ratio of interest rates on government debt, the height of the debt and the economic growth (also compared to other developing markets that grow stronger and have better returns for the investor) has gotten out of balance (momentarily covered by issuance of new debt/money). And since the tax payers are the indirect borrowers of the government debt they suffer in the end.

The dramatic implication of debt based money - like with any case where the majority of wealth is debt although I can only imagine government issued debt based money to lead to such a system wide circulation of debt (can you think of other circumstances that produce that much debt aside from bailout protected bank issued money?) - is that it creates a system wide necessity to make profits at ANY costs for humans and the environment to pay back the debt and it corrupts governments to favor economic growth even if it is at odds with protecting public goods which is one of the basic functions a state has.

Conclusion: Money issuance and monetary policy should not be a function of a state.

Here are two related quotes from the two articles that I find essential:
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With debt based money price deflation often means the collateral behind the debt is falling in value and that the borrowers will have a harder time earning the money required to pay off the debt.

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If you make the currency a “constant purchasing power” then the average man ends up having to make investment decisions he is not qualified to make.

https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/12/31/silos/
I highly appreciate your vote for diversity and recognizing that diversity and friendly cooperation are not contradictory. I would go further and say that anyone with a mindset that does not allow for separation with respect to how different people perceive the world (especially within the own peer group (the world, crypto, bitshares/ethereum)) is advocating absolutism and despotism. The difference in how we perceive the world can become an evidence for that we are all the same in our core (we have the same basic needs).
« Last Edit: January 02, 2015, 11:03:17 pm by delulo »

Offline bytemaster

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They exclude entire asset classes that have experienced the greatest inflation (stock market)

Well, the CPI is supposed to exclude the stock market, that makes sense. The point is to estimate cost of living. Stocks are not a living expense, they are an investment. To put it another way, imagine two parallel universes where in universe A dividends didn't exist and buybacks are used and in B buybacks don't exist and dividends are used. Both universes are libertarian utopias so no tax considerations exist. A and B are economically equivalent as Dan has pointed out many times, but A will have higher stock market rate growth than B, so the stock-market-included CPIs of the two would be different, which makes no sense.




I recently reflected on the topic whether asset inflation should be a component of price inflation indexes, and I believe there is a strong case for inclusion. When buying into an ever rising (and substantially rising) stock market the expected long-term investment returns deteorate significantly, compared with a range-bound or slowly rising stock market. This implies that the cost of ensuring decent pension income is rising dramatically for the younger population, who started to invest comparably late. Pension income is going to be high for older folks, who will sooner tend to spend it, therefore creating some upward pressure on consumer prices. Younger folks have to withdraw consumption now, in order to save enough in a low expected return environment, but for them pension savings are definitely a part of their  "living expenditures". So, on both fronts - in terms of leading to future upward consumer price pressures, and in terms of representing the current cost of living, asset prices should not be ignored!

http://bytemaster.bitshares.org/article/2015/01/03/Should-stocks-be-included-in-the-CPI/
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Offline kisa

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They exclude entire asset classes that have experienced the greatest inflation (stock market)

Well, the CPI is supposed to exclude the stock market, that makes sense. The point is to estimate cost of living. Stocks are not a living expense, they are an investment. To put it another way, imagine two parallel universes where in universe A dividends didn't exist and buybacks are used and in B buybacks don't exist and dividends are used. Both universes are libertarian utopias so no tax considerations exist. A and B are economically equivalent as Dan has pointed out many times, but A will have higher stock market rate growth than B, so the stock-market-included CPIs of the two would be different, which makes no sense.


I recently reflected on the topic whether asset inflation should be a component of price inflation indexes, and I believe there is a strong case for inclusion. When buying into an ever rising (and substantially rising) stock market the expected long-term investment returns deteorate significantly, compared with a range-bound or slowly rising stock market. This implies that the cost of ensuring decent pension income is rising dramatically for the younger population, who started to invest comparably late. Pension income is going to be high for older folks, who will sooner tend to spend it, therefore creating some upward pressure on consumer prices. Younger folks have to withdraw consumption now, in order to save enough in a low expected return environment, but for them pension savings are definitely a part of their  "living expenditures". So, on both fronts - in terms of leading to future upward consumer price pressures, and in terms of representing the current cost of living, asset prices should not be ignored!
« Last Edit: January 02, 2015, 03:20:46 pm by kisa »

Offline vbuterin

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Quote
They exclude entire asset classes that have experienced the greatest inflation (stock market)

Well, the CPI is supposed to exclude the stock market, that makes sense. The point is to estimate cost of living. Stocks are not a living expense, they are an investment. To put it another way, imagine two parallel universes where in universe A dividends didn't exist and buybacks are used and in B buybacks don't exist and dividends are used. Both universes are libertarian utopias so no tax considerations exist. A and B are economically equivalent as Dan has pointed out many times, but A will have higher stock market rate growth than B, so the stock-market-included CPIs of the two would be different, which makes no sense.

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They fail to account for economic growth that would normally lead to falling prices

I'm confused about what this actually means. Can you elaborate?

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They are fully centralized and lack a consensus process.

Sure, that's reasonable.

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t is undesirable because we want the average individual to be able to “invest in the economy” simply by saving the money of the economy without having to take any risks.

So, you want there to exist an easy-to-use investment vehicle that corresponds to "investing in all of society". Makes sense. But why not just make an easy button for simultaneously investing in every stock in proportion to its market cap? We already have basically that in the form of the S&P500 and the like.

The basic macroeconomic reason not to have a fixed-supply asset simultaneously be an store-of-value, medium-of-exchange and unit-of-account is so that if a recession hits and the SoV becomes a safe haven asset you don't have the MoE and UoA getting screwed up as well.

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Offline Empirical1.1

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I'm not great with economics but to me while this looks like an interesting academic exercise, there’s low/no market value in StableCoin short to medium term.

Ethereum will already have risk attached and this new StableCoin system even more so. The downside of being a StableCoin early adopter is you could lose a lot and the upside is that if it works you just get to maintain your relative purchasing power. So you will probably be required to pay a lot of interest to attract any demand. Especially when limited crypto-currencies and currently suppressed gold/silver, exposure to which is available via BitAssets give people currency options that are likely to explode in relative purchasing power if there’s significant problems with the global financial system and major fiat currencies.

Purchasing power stability is also relative to specific countries based on their economic situation and government policies. So even if you achieve a greater degree of average global stability you will be locally unstable over long periods so any marginal benefit you may ideally achieve over current options will be in practical terms largely negated. 

In terms of pricing goods, people are looking at their expenses which are currently priced in national currencies. So if you’re working on tight margins & budgets that’s the kind of stability and predictability you’re after which is available via BitCurrencies. Any deviations the StableCoin makes to a currency people are working in, (provided it's not very inflationary - then anything else is better) will be a negative to this market. 

So from my POV StableCoin is unstable at a local level  & unstable for businesses even if it works while being high risk for very limited reward.  Unlike BitAssets, the system will require years to prove it’s efficacy to the market. I also think it's quite likely that after years of work, StableCoin will just be seen as an alternative to a CPI or commodity basket ETF.

Gold historically functions very well both in terms of volatility and stability when adopted on a large scale in a currency role & referencing the volatility of gold now that it has been demonitised is quite misleading imo. When this fiat system implodes, gold will take on a significant monetary role again and clearly many countries are preparing for that outcome. Few will place their trust in anything other than limited money after that event imo and certainly not a new oracle/prediction market.  A low/no dilution crypto-currency may grow very rapidly in this period and one day perform a similar role to a monetised gold if it gets large & widely used enough. Due to crypto-currency transparency and accountability, it's even possible it may ultimately be viewed as superior to gold and be very beneficial to mankind. So that's where I think the future is. (BitGold, BitSilver and low/no dilution cryto-currency. BitUSD and other BitCurrencies will be very popular in the interim.)

 
« Last Edit: January 02, 2015, 01:35:42 am by Empirical1.1 »

Offline bytemaster

http://bytemaster.bitshares.org/article/2015/01/01/How-to-create-a-stable-decentralized-crypto-currency/
Quote
Based upon this analysis the goal of BitShares is for BTS to become a global currency in its own right and for the dilution that we experience today to fund development to taper off until we have a fixed supply

rip BTSX

This is no longer a currency, it's shares. Isn't it up to shareholders to decide whether to dilute BTS?

It is... but by the time it gets to be a global "currency" trx fees will be more than enough.
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Offline vlight

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http://bytemaster.bitshares.org/article/2015/01/01/How-to-create-a-stable-decentralized-crypto-currency/
Quote
Based upon this analysis the goal of BitShares is for BTS to become a global currency in its own right and for the dilution that we experience today to fund development to taper off until we have a fixed supply

rip BTSX

This is no longer a currency, it's shares. Isn't it up to shareholders to decide whether to dilute BTS?

Offline jsidhu

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Tying in prediction market to a cpi like indiciator...  +5%

This takes the best of both worlds.. tying inflation to an indicator and not having that indicator based on stats.. everyone agrees because they are part of the prediction consensus!

"and which ever entity is responsible for estimating inflation would be completely in control of monetary policy"

Should be every not ever
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Offline fluxer555

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Double negative. Should be, "isn't centralized or stable."

Alternatively,

"pegging to a fiat currency isn’t decentralized nor is it stable."

Also, loved the article!!

Offline werneo

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    • chronicle of the precession of simulacra
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2nd Paragraph:

"For all practical purposes a the dollar is ..."


3rd Paragraph, last sentence:

"and can be sold and the market price within 30 days."

Also sited -> cited.

Pull requested.

EDIT: Liked the post, btw.

last sentence of the first paragraph:

Quote
pegging to a fiat currency isn’t decentralized nor stable.

Double negative. Should be, "isn't centralized or stable."

Offline Troglodactyl

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2nd Paragraph:

"For all practical purposes a the dollar is ..."


3rd Paragraph, last sentence:

"and can be sold and the market price within 30 days."

Also sited -> cited.

Pull requested.

EDIT: Liked the post, btw.

Offline fluxer555

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2nd Paragraph:

"For all practical purposes a the dollar is ..."


3rd Paragraph, last sentence:

"and can be sold and the market price within 30 days."
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 04:26:04 pm by fluxer555 »

Offline kisa

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http://bytemaster.bitshares.org/article/2015/01/01/How-to-create-a-stable-decentralized-crypto-currency/

Amazing.  This article is from the future.
+5%

@Dan, even on New Year's eve you work like a highly efficient blog-writing machine! ;)
Happy New Year to you - we all wish that 2015 becomes great year for BitShares!
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 04:25:07 pm by kisa »