Author Topic: The bitcoin death spiral has begun?  (Read 5322 times)

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Offline starspirit

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Sorry, but I don't see any new issue apart from a very deep bear market raising every band-wagon criticism possible as the herd gets very emotional. I'm not defending bitcoin here, just rationality.

From the perspective of establishing a global digital money, I don't see any problem with the following:

Volatility. Volatility is an unavoidable phenomenon in the early growth stages of any coin established by the free market that is vying for use as a global money. That is because it is not backed by any other form of existing money, and needs to establish its own value through use in exchange, with all the future uncertainty surrounding that. Any PoS, DPoS, or other coin with a similar aim would (and does) experience similar volatility. The only potential exception to this I can think of is if a coin is backed by a commoditised digital service, allowing initial stability till it finds greater use in exchange. Can anybody show another way that a free market digital money could be established without volatility, and without merely being a derivative of established money like fiat? The only argument I can see here is that it is just not possible for the free market to establish its own digital money, and I hope that's wrong.

Miners losing money. Gold was the best money standard for thousands of years. When the gold price rose relative to other commodities, it sent a profit signal to the market to explore/mine/extract more of it, thus bringing the price back into line with other goods in the economy. When the gold price fell relative to other commodities, it created losses for miners (e.g. if gold falls relative to energy costs of extraction). This incentivises miners to curtail supply in line with the reduced demand. Some might even stop operations, and dump any pre-mined gold on the market. Unfortunately business intentions are only implemented with a lag to market prices, so it takes time for supply and demand to smooth out. None of this has meant the gold mining industry has collapsed gold as a result. With Bitcoin there will be a similar dynamic. Too much mining capacity was put in place - now it is being necessarily consolidated. This also means many miners are dumping their BTC. But this is just part of a natural business cycle to be expected for mining - what's new in this situation?

Network security costs greater than adoption. All networks have a security cost (even DPoS), and whenever there is a bear market in currency price, the value attributed to the network by new adopters is by definition not covering this cost. Again this is unavoidable during bear cycles (which are themselves unavoidable - see volatility above). If Bitcoin is adopted by the mainstream, its network security costs will fall dramatically over time as a percentage of the network value. The real issue right now is the rate of adoption, not the network security costs (e.g. inflation to cover network costs only explains 10% of the fall in a year).

Merchants dumping bitcoin. Merchants never could hold the bitcoin! - they always keep limited funds on hand and need to recycle their revenues into new supplies. One could argue that merchants "dump" USD when they take their sales proceeds and buy new supplies. Besides that, they only sustain earning revenues in bitcoin if people buy bitcoin to use for this purpose.

On the other hand, possible valid criticisms are:

Network integrity can be maintained at much lower cost.
Transaction times are too long.
Centralisation of mining can affect the integrity of the network.
Scalability problems.
Other?

But note that these are NOT the current criticisms doing the rounds on the blogs and in the media - which leads me to think this is nothing more than a bear market, albeit deep, and with many emotions attached.

1. Volatiliy - The free market can establish a large digital money by building one off the back of BitAssets.


Thanks for coming back on these points Empirical.

Re 1, are you saying here that a bitAsset like bitUSD could become so popular that eventually it can drop its anchoring to USD and float freely, much as fiat did when the gold standard was removed? If so, how is that possible given its backed by BTS (or would this be removed too?)

Or do you mean BTS could become this global money, based on growth in demand for bitAssets? If so, how would BTS be any less volatile than bitcoin given its own future uncertainty (BTS currently very volatile too).


2. Mining - Bitcoin is gold mining with a pan in a river. Those miners have largely been replaced by far more efficient forms of mining as technology improved. That's what will happen here, if Bitcoin is an inefficient and wasteful form of mining by comparison to alternatives, which it is, there's a good chance it will be replaced.


I agree with this. But I don't consider it a failure of Bitcoin as money, or a death knell, just as the cost of mining was not what killed the gold standard. There just may be better options. But I guess its possible that the existence of superior options could gradually kill Bitcoin, rather than the failure of mining per se.


3. No inflation of 10% doesn't just cost you 10% imo.  New coins are sold onto the market and eat into the buy wall. In a bear market with no buying demand that inflation rate can have a much larger depressing effect on the price.


This is context specific. You've just said - "in a bear market with no buying demand", so you've made this argument in the context where there are other negative factors already impinging on that lack of demand. The cost of the inflation is the increase in money supply. The impact of that on prices at any time is variable with market depth as you say. Now its greater than 10%. In 2013 it was less than 10%.


4. In the beginning the merchants and purchases made in Bitcoin was neglible that's why it was less noticeable. Now there are 100 000 businesses+ with annual sales probably in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Businesses don't 'dump' dollars when they spend it on supplies imo. In that example those dollars are re-circulating in the economy in the Bitcoin analogy the Dollars are being dumped for Yen as soon as businesses get them.

This analogy does not work. Somebody has to use the USD to keep buying the goods, and the businesses need to sell their yen for new supplies. Round and round. the real issue is market sentiment, not merchants.

If market sentiment is already bearish, either bitcoin holders dump their coins on the market, or they buy goods from merchants for the merchants to dump them on the market - result is the same. The existence of the merchant only provides an alternate route, not an extra form of market pressure. If market sentiment is neutral, consumers take up the coins disposed of by the merchants to buy more goods. Again no impact. This is only a flow of money.

I'm interested to know what people would propose these businesses accepting bitcoin actually do with their bitcoin proceeds - hoard it and stop running their business? What other option do they have but to sell it? The coin must re-circulate for business to go on.

Offline oldman

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BTC is a perfect fit for TPTB: highly centralized, high barriers to entry, easily regulated, easily monitored (white/black coins/addys), wasteful, poorly distributed and generally exactly what you would expect were big banks, big corp and big gov to get together and think up what a global currency should look like.

BTC will hit $10k then $100k then $1M. Call me a looney, but I've been around too long. Too many governments that are insolvent, too much instability in the global power balance.

Central banks are out of ammo. QE and NIRP are failing spectacularly. M2 velocity is through the floor. Real GDP growth is non-existent. Unfunded liabilities are at all-time highs.

Bitcoin is going nowhere.

The millions of coins that have sat patiently and mysteriously for the last 5 years will be distributed to central banks around the world in a giant reset of the global economy.

Just sayin' I'm down with tinfoil.

Offline Akado

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and the true winner of this so called crash is... The Swiss franc!

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30829917

That moment when the share supply is 1 CHF
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Offline santaclause102

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Quote
inflation to cover network costs only explains 10% of the fall in a year)
that would only be true if markets that form the price were influenced by all bitcoinholders equally  (i.e. everyone would be selling or buying). Instead I assume that miners (the ones that get the 10%) are trading more actively then the rest of all bitcoin holders.

Offline Empirical1.1

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Sorry, but I don't see any new issue apart from a very deep bear market raising every band-wagon criticism possible as the herd gets very emotional. I'm not defending bitcoin here, just rationality.

From the perspective of establishing a global digital money, I don't see any problem with the following:

Volatility. Volatility is an unavoidable phenomenon in the early growth stages of any coin established by the free market that is vying for use as a global money. That is because it is not backed by any other form of existing money, and needs to establish its own value through use in exchange, with all the future uncertainty surrounding that. Any PoS, DPoS, or other coin with a similar aim would (and does) experience similar volatility. The only potential exception to this I can think of is if a coin is backed by a commoditised digital service, allowing initial stability till it finds greater use in exchange. Can anybody show another way that a free market digital money could be established without volatility, and without merely being a derivative of established money like fiat? The only argument I can see here is that it is just not possible for the free market to establish its own digital money, and I hope that's wrong.

Miners losing money. Gold was the best money standard for thousands of years. When the gold price rose relative to other commodities, it sent a profit signal to the market to explore/mine/extract more of it, thus bringing the price back into line with other goods in the economy. When the gold price fell relative to other commodities, it created losses for miners (e.g. if gold falls relative to energy costs of extraction). This incentivises miners to curtail supply in line with the reduced demand. Some might even stop operations, and dump any pre-mined gold on the market. Unfortunately business intentions are only implemented with a lag to market prices, so it takes time for supply and demand to smooth out. None of this has meant the gold mining industry has collapsed gold as a result. With Bitcoin there will be a similar dynamic. Too much mining capacity was put in place - now it is being necessarily consolidated. This also means many miners are dumping their BTC. But this is just part of a natural business cycle to be expected for mining - what's new in this situation?

Network security costs greater than adoption. All networks have a security cost (even DPoS), and whenever there is a bear market in currency price, the value attributed to the network by new adopters is by definition not covering this cost. Again this is unavoidable during bear cycles (which are themselves unavoidable - see volatility above). If Bitcoin is adopted by the mainstream, its network security costs will fall dramatically over time as a percentage of the network value. The real issue right now is the rate of adoption, not the network security costs (e.g. inflation to cover network costs only explains 10% of the fall in a year).

Merchants dumping bitcoin. Merchants never could hold the bitcoin! - they always keep limited funds on hand and need to recycle their revenues into new supplies. One could argue that merchants "dump" USD when they take their sales proceeds and buy new supplies. Besides that, they only sustain earning revenues in bitcoin if people buy bitcoin to use for this purpose.

On the other hand, possible valid criticisms are:

Network integrity can be maintained at much lower cost.
Transaction times are too long.
Centralisation of mining can affect the integrity of the network.
Scalability problems.
Other?

But note that these are NOT the current criticisms doing the rounds on the blogs and in the media - which leads me to think this is nothing more than a bear market, albeit deep, and with many emotions attached.

1. Volatiliy - The free market can establish a large digital money by building one off the back of BitAssets.

2. Mining - Bitcoin is gold mining with a pan in a river. Those miners have largely been replaced by far more efficient forms of mining as technology improved. That's what will happen here, if Bitcoin is an inefficient and wasteful form of mining by comparison to alternatives, which it is, there's a good chance it will be replaced.

3. No inflation of 10% doesn't just cost you 10% imo.  New coins are sold onto the market and eat into the buy wall. In a bear market with no buying demand that inflation rate can have a much larger depressing effect on the price.

4. In the beginning the merchants and purchases made in Bitcoin was neglible that's why it was less noticeable. Now there are 100 000 businesses+ with annual sales probably in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Businesses don't 'dump' dollars when they spend it on supplies imo. In that example those dollars are re-circulating in the economy in the Bitcoin analogy the Dollars are being dumped for Yen as soon as businesses get them.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 09:15:44 am by Empirical1.1 »

Offline Empirical1.1

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I think if bitcoin drops that low, a new era for other cryptos will start. Bitcoin has been suppressing other alts with superior technology from going further, this might just be an opportunity for that to end and other projects can flourish, or at least, I like to think so.

Yes provided we communicate, how we don't have these 2hr confirmation problems and are a better system

Offline roadscape

I think if bitcoin drops that low, a new era for other cryptos will start. Bitcoin has been suppressing other alts with superior technology from going further, this might just be an opportunity for that to end and other projects can flourish, or at least, I like to think so.
That. The Bitcoin Cult is a collective delusion that prevents people from looking objectively at the crypto landscape. A massive slap in the face is needed to break the spell and force Bitcoin cultists to reassess their beliefs and eventually shift paradigm. Let us hope this crash will be the wake up signal for most of the bitcoiners. Paradoxically, Bitcoin will be doing much better as a currency once people have dropped their unrealistic expectations.

They don't need a slap, they need a guiding hand :)
We don't want them to leave the crypto economy.

All they need to know is that BTS will be there for them (when they're ready).
And we won't make fun of them for being slow :P

It's like Parenting 101.. Bitcoin is fuelled by hormones!
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Offline klosure

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I think if bitcoin drops that low, a new era for other cryptos will start. Bitcoin has been suppressing other alts with superior technology from going further, this might just be an opportunity for that to end and other projects can flourish, or at least, I like to think so.
That. The Bitcoin Cult is a collective delusion that prevents people from looking objectively at the crypto landscape. A massive slap in the face is needed to break the spell and force Bitcoin cultists to reassess their beliefs and eventually shift paradigm. Let us hope this crash will be the wake up signal for most of the bitcoiners. Paradoxically, Bitcoin will be doing much better as a currency once people have dropped their unrealistic expectations.

Offline Ander

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Someone just bought 2.5 million BTS on bter.  I've seen that on btc38 before but never bter.
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Offline mint chocolate chip

Saw this venn diagram today, too funny not to share...


Offline xiahui135

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Just a panic crash (which may not be over).  Bitcoin has seen worse in 2011 and recovered.
Bitcoin have no such competition in 2011.  Now btc seems more and more useless because new tech appear and work better than btc.

Offline xiahui135

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I think btc is going to die, because it is so replaceable.  Some new ones will take its place with lower cost and better efficiency.
I feel btc will have several drop this year.  And hope bts can get rid of affect by btc.

Offline Stan

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Haha thanks. It's just that the price has been going so low...you start to doubt yourself.



Look on the bright side:
We have never been this close to third place!

« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 02:14:28 am by Stan »
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract of any kind.   These are merely my opinions which I reserve the right to change at any time.

Offline starspirit

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Sorry, but I don't see any new issue apart from a very deep bear market raising every band-wagon criticism possible as the herd gets very emotional. I'm not defending bitcoin here, just rationality.

From the perspective of establishing a global digital money, I don't see any problem with the following:

Volatility. Volatility is an unavoidable phenomenon in the early growth stages of any coin established by the free market that is vying for use as a global money. That is because it is not backed by any other form of existing money, and needs to establish its own value through use in exchange, with all the future uncertainty surrounding that. Any PoS, DPoS, or other coin with a similar aim would (and does) experience similar volatility. The only potential exception to this I can think of is if a coin is backed by a commoditised digital service, allowing initial stability till it finds greater use in exchange. Can anybody show another way that a free market digital money could be established without volatility, and without merely being a derivative of established money like fiat? The only argument I can see here is that it is just not possible for the free market to establish its own digital money, and I hope that's wrong.

Miners losing money. Gold was the best money standard for thousands of years. When the gold price rose relative to other commodities, it sent a profit signal to the market to explore/mine/extract more of it, thus bringing the price back into line with other goods in the economy. When the gold price fell relative to other commodities, it created losses for miners (e.g. if gold falls relative to energy costs of extraction). This incentivises miners to curtail supply in line with the reduced demand. Some might even stop operations, and dump any pre-mined gold on the market. Unfortunately business intentions are only implemented with a lag to market prices, so it takes time for supply and demand to smooth out. None of this has meant the gold mining industry has collapsed gold as a result. With Bitcoin there will be a similar dynamic. Too much mining capacity was put in place - now it is being necessarily consolidated. This also means many miners are dumping their BTC. But this is just part of a natural business cycle to be expected for mining - what's new in this situation?

Network security costs greater than adoption. All networks have a security cost (even DPoS), and whenever there is a bear market in currency price, the value attributed to the network by new adopters is by definition not covering this cost. Again this is unavoidable during bear cycles (which are themselves unavoidable - see volatility above). If Bitcoin is adopted by the mainstream, its network security costs will fall dramatically over time as a percentage of the network value. The real issue right now is the rate of adoption, not the network security costs (e.g. inflation to cover network costs only explains 10% of the fall in a year).

Merchants dumping bitcoin. Merchants never could hold the bitcoin! - they always keep limited funds on hand and need to recycle their revenues into new supplies. One could argue that merchants "dump" USD when they take their sales proceeds and buy new supplies. Besides that, they only sustain earning revenues in bitcoin if people buy bitcoin to use for this purpose.

On the other hand, possible valid criticisms are:

Network integrity can be maintained at much lower cost.
Transaction times are too long.
Centralisation of mining can affect the integrity of the network.
Scalability problems.
Other?

But note that these are NOT the current criticisms doing the rounds on the blogs and in the media - which leads me to think this is nothing more than a bear market, albeit deep, and with many emotions attached.


Offline islandking

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Should people sell BTS to buy bitUSD until the bloodbath ends?


Exactly. We can only "guess" what *may *happen to the price. Nobody knows for sure. This is why short term trading is gambling unless you are a professional. It is much better to pick a long term investment and just hold for 2-3 years instead of day trading as a newbie.

Haha thanks. It's just that the price has been going so low...you start to doubt yourself.
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