Author Topic: Don't pay to hold SWISS FRANCS !!!  (Read 4615 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline triox

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 170
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: triox
If they keep holding on to the USD peg the inevitable cataclysm as a result will be much worse, so, they have to do it.

"Inevitable" assumes a static world. Technological progress already reshaped the world economy once in our lifetime (the Internet revolution).
We can have a breakthrough in cold fusion tomorrow and an instant multiplication of the standard of living of every household on earth. We can have US and Russia nuke each other out. Or a benevolent AI take over. Or a thousand other things.

If governments can stall for time they will.

Offline Akado

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2752
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: akado
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Xeldal

  • Guest
The result of killing US demand is a sharp recession in China as the means of production are reconfigured to meet the needs of a different market.

More like a serious depression. Which could bring down the Chinese government. And that's why they won't do it.

If they keep holding on to the USD peg the inevitable cataclysm as a result will be much worse, so, they have to do it.

Offline donkeypong

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2329
    • View Profile
The result of killing US demand is a sharp recession in China as the means of production are reconfigured to meet the needs of a different market.

More like a serious depression. Which could bring down the Chinese government. And that's why they won't do it.

Offline bytemaster

.. holds a significant portion of the US debt through treasuries, and has an export-driven economy that would grind to a halt if it de-coupled from the US. Pretty simple case of dependency.

I can't help but disagree. All China needs to do is to dump its massive holdings of dollars it has in reserve or from the sale of US dollar-dominated financial instruments. The Fed can print dollars with which to purchase the dumped Chinese holdings, but the Fed cannot print foreign currencies with which to buy up the dumped dollars. The massive supply of dollars dumped in the exchange market by China would have no takers. The dollar’s value would collapse. Washington could no longer pay its bills by printing money. Americans living in an import-dependent country, thanks to jobs offshoring, would be faced with high prices that would seriously erode their living standard.

If the Chinese can produce it, they can afford it. Its the Chinese government that is stealing their purchasing power and giving it to Americans to buy the goods being imported. Its really the Americans who cant afford it in my opinion.

Would love to hear BMs take on this.

I think you are somewhat correct.  True wealth is not measured in currency but in raw materials and the means of production.  Consumers are not necessary, but producers are.   

That said China is currently producing what American consumers want which is very different than what China consumers want.   The result of killing US demand is a sharp recession in China as the means of production are reconfigured to meet the needs of a different market.   
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline mike623317

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 637
    • View Profile
.. holds a significant portion of the US debt through treasuries, and has an export-driven economy that would grind to a halt if it de-coupled from the US. Pretty simple case of dependency.

I can't help but disagree. All China needs to do is to dump its massive holdings of dollars it has in reserve or from the sale of US dollar-dominated financial instruments. The Fed can print dollars with which to purchase the dumped Chinese holdings, but the Fed cannot print foreign currencies with which to buy up the dumped dollars. The massive supply of dollars dumped in the exchange market by China would have no takers. The dollar’s value would collapse. Washington could no longer pay its bills by printing money. Americans living in an import-dependent country, thanks to jobs offshoring, would be faced with high prices that would seriously erode their living standard.

If the Chinese can produce it, they can afford it. Its the Chinese government that is stealing their purchasing power and giving it to Americans to buy the goods being imported. Its really the Americans who cant afford it in my opinion.

Would love to hear BMs take on this.

Offline Akado

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2752
    • View Profile
  • BitShares: akado
This would be a nice example for a future blog from BM!  +5% Then we could post it around on reddit! It should catch some attention
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Xeldal

  • Guest
The U.S. dollar, first and foremost, is linked to energy costs. Oil is denominated in dollars, until it isn't. Currently, the U.S. has cheap domestic sources of oil and gas, thanks to the shale oil boom which will last anywhere from another year or two to another thirty years, depending on who you believe. China has a huge trade imbalance with the US, holds a significant portion of the US debt through treasuries, and has an export-driven economy that would grind to a halt if it de-coupled from the US. Pretty simple case of dependency.

Just like the swiss with the Euro.  The sooner china goes through the pain of decoupling the better for china(and everyone else).  As Peter Schiff always says.  " A currency war is a war you don't want to win"  The US is the front runner, and the whole world is racing to catch up.

Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94O6nkQgQiQ

Offline donkeypong

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2329
    • View Profile
The U.S. dollar, first and foremost, is linked to energy costs. Oil is denominated in dollars, until it isn't. Currently, the U.S. has cheap domestic sources of oil and gas, thanks to the shale oil boom which will last anywhere from another year or two to another thirty years, depending on who you believe. China has a huge trade imbalance with the US, holds a significant portion of the US debt through treasuries, and has an export-driven economy that would grind to a halt if it de-coupled from the US. Pretty simple case of dependency.

Offline mike623317

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 637
    • View Profile

How very true. I love the army knife image.

If I were going to peg to any fiat via bitshares the Swiss franc, Singapore dollar or RMB would be my choice. Be interesting when the Chinese unpeg from the usd.

Not very likely. If they did this, it would kill China's export economy. The most they'll do is loosen the peg again and allow it to trade within a broader range, as they did a few years ago under intense diplomatic pressure. But that change would only come when the dollar is weak against the yuan + there's lots of political will to get the Chinese to change it. Right now, the situation is the opposite (strong dollar).

Remember when the Swiss franc was trading at 5:1 on its way to parity with the USD, then the USD won't even buy a Swiss franc. I think it's ultimately the same story with the YUAN. I think it's overplayed that China needs the US, the average American is maxed out. I recently read how most Chinese car sales are purchased with cash whereas in the us car loans are now as long as 7 years.

My point is the USD is overvalued and, sure there is a lot of politics being played with Russia, China and India all moving away from the USD and buying gold and silver. In my opinion, that half of the worlds population will prosper and that's why I would own Bit-gold, silver, yuan and Swiss francs.

I just don't think you can print 4 times as many dollars and expect it to retain value in the longer term.


Offline donkeypong

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2329
    • View Profile

How very true. I love the army knife image.

If I were going to peg to any fiat via bitshares the Swiss franc, Singapore dollar or RMB would be my choice. Be interesting when the Chinese unpeg from the usd.

Not very likely. If they did this, it would kill China's export economy. The most they'll do is loosen the peg again and allow it to trade within a broader range, as they did a few years ago under intense diplomatic pressure. But that change would only come when the dollar is weak against the yuan + there's lots of political will to get the Chinese to change it. Right now, the situation is the opposite (strong dollar).

Offline liondani

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3737
  • Inch by inch, play by play
    • View Profile
    • My detailed info
  • BitShares: liondani
  • GitHub: liondani

How very true. I love the army knife image.

If I were going to peg to any fiat via bitshares the Swiss franc, Singapore dollar or RMB would be my choice. Be interesting when the Chinese unpeg from the usd.

Wow! I didn't know that was the case!   :D

Offline liondani

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3737
  • Inch by inch, play by play
    • View Profile
    • My detailed info
  • BitShares: liondani
  • GitHub: liondani
Check it out, you can buy 100 CHF right now with +5% annual yield !!!

You are quick guys!


Code: [Select]
CALL PRICE         INTEREST RATE           QUANTITY(CHF)    COLLATERAL(BTS)              EXPIRATION
218.1893           5.00                    100.00             32,728.39158                  30 Days
« Last Edit: January 19, 2015, 05:49:56 am by liondani »

Offline mike623317

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 637
    • View Profile

How very true. I love the army knife image.

If I were going to peg to any fiat via bitshares the Swiss franc, Singapore dollar or RMB would be my choice. Be interesting when the Chinese unpeg from the usd.