Author Topic: Simple Binary Prediction Market Discussion  (Read 24577 times)

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Offline klosure

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If both parties have equal amount of collateral tied up you could force them to settle quicker by applying demurrage to the collateral. The longer they wait the less they will get back at the time where they close the bet position. Demurrage rate could be applied in different proportion based on the VWAP of the last price on the market. Since all the honest betters will have settled earlier the VWAP will be difficult to manipulate. For instance, if demurrage rate is 2% per day and the vwap is 0.9, the loser will bear 0.9*2=1.8% demurrage whereas the winner will bear only 0.1*2=0.2% demurrage. In this condition, the loser is better off settling quickly.

Whatever the specific way this is inplemented, the counter-incentive of waiting should always be higher than the incentive of waiting so that the equilibrium will form on (tell the truth,settle early).
« Last Edit: February 12, 2015, 04:06:43 am by klosure »

Offline Akado

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Prediction markets are cool, margin trading  is great.

But not finishing what one have started is truly stupid and regrettable. 90% of the killer BTC apps is already developed by Bitshares. What is left to do is make this the killer app... pun intended as it will  sucking 1/3 of the BTC market cap, while solving the 2 of the biggest weaknesses of bitcoin - it being traded with counterparty risk and its volatility.

What we need first is BTC wallet :
-with built in truly decentralized exchange.
-with truly no counterparty risk conversion of everybody's bitcoin to stable non volatile , blockchain-based asset of her choice - gold, euro, dollar. The true savings account as Stan used to say, that people keep their money up to seconds before they need to spend those funds.

Price of the project 250-300 man-hours.
and yes we will truly regret if we do not do it and jump on other pet projects that someone finds cooler or more interesting to their always seeking the next challenge minds...
+5%
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Offline bytemaster

It is really simple to vote on it.  Create a delegate that will pay for it.  If they get elected then work begins.
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Offline speedy

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Mobile wallet should be a simple recompile ;)

... and then fighting the iTunes gatekeepers to get your app approved.

Offline bytemaster

Agreed... we are not going to rush this in.  Focusing on BitAsset adoption and light wallets.

Good +5%

EDIT: plus mobile wallet

Mobile wallet should be a simple recompile ;)
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
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Offline clayop

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Agreed... we are not going to rush this in.  Focusing on BitAsset adoption and light wallets.

Good +5%

EDIT: plus mobile wallet
Bitshares Korea - http://www.bitshares.kr
Vote for me and see Korean Bitshares community grows
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Offline arhag

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Agreed... we are not going to rush this in.  Focusing on BitAsset adoption and light wallets.

Yes.

After those, I think proposal voting and prediction markets are the top 2 priorities.  Not sure what order.

Proposal voting, so that stakeholders can then vote on what they think is important to work on next  :).

Offline Ander

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Agreed... we are not going to rush this in.  Focusing on BitAsset adoption and light wallets.

Yes.

After those, I think proposal voting and prediction markets are the top 2 priorities.  Not sure what order.
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Offline bytemaster

Agreed... we are not going to rush this in.  Focusing on BitAsset adoption and light wallets.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline Rune

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Prediction markets are extremely important and we will regret not being the first

We will regret it, or would regret it? Any chance BTS can still move into prediction markets timely?

We've already gone all in on bitassets. Doing prediction markets wouldn't just be a matter of developing it, more importantly it would require strong marketing to get a large enough userbase to make the markets active. There's no chance we will gain anything from rushing into prediction markets at this point. It's better to focus on our core product and make it useable through web and light wallets. Once we have a network effect from the advantages that bitassets give then we can begin exploring other fancy features (though I think it would be better to work on integrating the Ethereum Virtual Machine and then build the prediction markets through scripting rather than hardcoding them into the blockchain).

zerosum

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Unfortunately most are happy with attaching shapeshift like centralized bridge to achieve that.
I on the other hand envision -truly no counterparty risk conversion BTC <-> bitWhatever.

No counterparty risk conversion between BTC and BitAssets? How would you manage that? The closest I've been able to get to that is GATEBTC managed by the delegates (BitShares Standard Gateway), and even that isn't counterparty risk free but simply decentralizes the counterparty slightly. And is it really worth the effort considering that the counterparty risk only exists for the short amount of time (and small amount of money being converted) that it takes to actually do the conversion?

Edit: I suppose it is possible through atomic cross chain trading between BitBTC and BTC, but users don't want to deal with that hassle.

In short, using the existing, but modified to serve this function, [open] cover orders as a fall off (aka guarantee) in case the counter party responsible for the BTC transfer does not follow through with its obligation to transfer the BTC.

Offline nomoreheroes7

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Prediction markets are extremely important and we will regret not being the first

We will regret it, or would regret it? Any chance BTS can still move into prediction markets timely?

Offline arhag

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Unfortunately most are happy with attaching shapeshift like centralized bridge to achieve that.
I on the other hand envision -truly no counterparty risk conversion BTC <-> bitWhatever.

No counterparty risk conversion between BTC and BitAssets? How would you manage that? The closest I've been able to get to that is GATEBTC managed by the delegates (BitShares Standard Gateway), and even that isn't counterparty risk free but simply decentralizes the counterparty slightly. And is it really worth the effort considering that the counterparty risk only exists for the short amount of time (and small amount of money being converted) that it takes to actually do the conversion?

Edit: I suppose it is possible through atomic cross chain trading between BitBTC and BTC, but users don't want to deal with that hassle.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2015, 06:27:24 pm by arhag »

Offline vegolino

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Prediction markets are extremely important and we will regret not being the first
  +5%

zerosum

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Prediction markets are cool, margin trading  is great.

But not finishing what one have started is truly stupid and regrettable. 90% of the killer BTC apps is already developed by Bitshares. What is left to do is make this the killer app... pun intended as it will  sucking 1/3 of the BTC market cap, while solving the 2 of the biggest weaknesses of bitcoin - it being traded with counterparty risk and its volatility.

What we need first is BTC wallet :
-with built in truly decentralized exchange.
-with truly no counterparty risk conversion of everybody's bitcoin to stable non volatile , blockchain-based asset of her choice - gold, euro, dollar. The true savings account as Stan used to say, that people keep their money up to seconds before they need to spend those funds.

Price of the project 250-300 man-hours.
and yes we will truly regret if we do not do it and jump on other pet projects that someone finds cooler or more interesting to their always seeking the next challenge minds...

I think the BTC wallet is one of the most popular projects atm on NullStreet and they seem to be really co-ordinating well around it. I think they will be able to find and get a developer elected to work on that.


I am aware that a lot of people have similar ideas/dreams in their heads. And I am happy that I am not the only daydreamer considering such a product extremely valuable. Unfortunately most are happy with attaching shapeshift like centralized bridge to achieve that.
I on the other hand envision -truly no counterparty risk conversion BTC <-> bitWhatever.

The foundation for my approach are already in the BTS code and an elegant solution is achievable with mere modification to it, but... And it is a big 'but', those modification need to be done by the core dev. team and are not something you just attach to the existing BTS core.
(I have written a couple of pages explanation if any core dev is remotely interested and no I am not posting it here as the spelling and grammar of said writing are unbelievably bad)