Author [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] Topic: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/  (Read 1373 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline luckybit


http://www.augur.net/blog/augur-at-sxsw-s-startupdebut
http://www.augur.net/

Robin Hanson is involved and he's probably the thought leader in prediction markets.

Bitshares was supposed to be a prediction market. What happened?
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline btswildpig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1423
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2015, 05:43:54 AM »
http://www.augur.net/blog/augur-at-sxsw-s-startupdebut
http://www.augur.net/

Robin Hanson is involved and he's probably the thought leader in prediction markets.

Bitshares was supposed to be a prediction market. What happened?

you can't jump to the moon without a solid infrastructure .
Function is easy , stability and performance is hard .
You can add a lot of function in it . But then again , even the current load of function is buggy as it is , you don't want to rush for more and fix it later  .
这个是私人账号,表达的一切言论均不代表任何团队和任何人。This is my personal account , anything I said with this account will be my opinion alone and has nothing to do with any group.

Offline luckybit

https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline cube

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1404
  • Bit by bit, we will get there!
    • View Profile
  • BTS: bitcube
  • Witness: bitcube
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2015, 05:58:30 AM »
http://www.augur.net/blog/augur-at-sxsw-s-startupdebut
http://www.augur.net/

Robin Hanson is involved and he's probably the thought leader in prediction markets.

Bitshares was supposed to be a prediction market. What happened?

Augur seems to have a creditable team to help it succeed. 

Is BitShares into prediction market too?  Are you referring to the Vote merger?
ID: bitcube
bitcube is a dedicated witness and committe member. Please vote for bitcube.

Offline starspirit

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 948
  • Financial markets pro over 20 years
    • View Profile
  • BTS: starspirit
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2015, 06:57:08 AM »
Sounds like an interesting one to keep an eye on, perhaps even have a discussion with on areas of cross-fertilisation. From my glancing through the whitepaper, sounds like they want to create a cash-like coin, dubbed USD coin, for betting. The whitepaper suggests this would be done by printing more of the token when demand is high (and price above $1), and ceasing to print when demand is low (price below $1). Of course this is only asymmetric flexibility in the supply, and does not peg to a USD when demand is falling. Maybe they could be approached on using bitUSD instead.

Offline hrossik

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 36
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2015, 09:27:24 AM »
They are working with Ethereum...

http://www.augur.net/blog/why-ethereum
BTS: hr0550

Offline jsidhu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1337
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2015, 04:28:59 PM »
I dont think pm will work for mpa that bitshares solved... I think the prediction market capability should be solved and then ported into bitshares.. We prob would need turing complete scripts with smartncontracts also... Then we simply copy logic over.. Let them do the research work and testing first.

Under why decentralize whitepaper says that easiest way is to have oracles that update events... Then it becomes a trivial problem howver in bitcoin why would you trust some iracles over others? So they have to develop ability to update events on every node and inventisize updates... While with bitshares we simply updste events like price feeds... So we solve the first problem of trusted oracles that update events whom everyone trusts... It would really test integrity of the delegate system too

Because no delegates augur developed the reputation system which entitles ppl to post event results.. And obliged to checkin every 8 weeks.. To sync up blockchain to reality... This is also a pressure point that can break and if thr theory of delegate holds up then solved by bitshares... Essentially it boils down to craete a new asset type and allow ppl to buy those assets based on how pms work.. The ppl who guess right win money.. Should be as simple as that.. The only question is who would create the predictions and what kind of fee to create these assets?
« Last Edit: March 15, 2015, 04:45:42 PM by jsidhu »
Hired by blockchain | Developer
delegate: dev.sidhujag

Offline jsidhu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1337
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2015, 04:50:32 PM »
Our competitive advantage is the delegates.. No other projects solved the problems like us so we should leverage this advantage as much as possible.. This is just another avenue to leverage and benefit from our delegates that will help us get network effect. Web services and other things should also be considered to be able to port centralized services which are cool and alot of ppl use.. Essentially decentralizing it.
Hired by blockchain | Developer
delegate: dev.sidhujag

Offline Ander

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3507
    • View Profile
  • BTS: Ander
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2015, 04:58:57 PM »
While with bitshares we simply update events like price feeds...

Yes this.

Bitshares can do prediction markets quite well.

We elect judge delegates who we trust to run the prediction market, and they provide results in the way that delegates now provide price feeds. 

The judges would be elected by shareholders, and if you do not trust them for some reason then you don't use our prediction market. 
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline jsidhu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1337
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2015, 05:31:00 PM »
While with bitshares we simply update events like price feeds...

Yes this.

Bitshares can do prediction markets quite well.

We elect judge delegates who we trust to run the prediction market, and they provide results in the way that delegates now provide price feeds. 

The judges would be elected by shareholders, and if you do not trust them for some reason then you don't use our prediction market.
I think we would have delegates checkin and update events... A delegate is a delegate..msoon as you get different delegates doing different things you break the decentralization concept and have issues with security and other attacks..mwhatever we do it shouldnbe generalized and easy to do for all delegates...

If people screw around with bad data they get voted out.. In both systems someone high on delegate list or with good reputation points can end up gaming the system one time and losing repuation or delegate... But if alot of money on line maybe it will be done so we need a way to try to fix thAt.

Perhaps one way is to limit markcap of these markets and grow them as a percentage of overall marketcap to reduce these oneoff manipulations.. Delegate wont give up his pay if he only wins say 1 month worth of salary by manipulation... These kinds of things we can do but others cant
« Last Edit: March 15, 2015, 05:35:41 PM by jsidhu »
Hired by blockchain | Developer
delegate: dev.sidhujag

Offline Bitcoinfan

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 235
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2015, 05:44:54 PM »
What happen edwas that Bytemaster ignored the Truthcoin proposal.  fyi augur's origins was truthcoin.  I want you all to remember this could have been part of bitshares...  And this wont be the only prediction market in development that will compete hard against bitshares. 

And delegates for prediction markets are a core disadvantage.  Its a disaster waiting to happen.  I would not trust millions of dollars of trading to transparent delegates that can collude together. 

However...  if Bitshares can pivot quickly to scripting, and thats a big if they can do fast enough, bitshares can replicate and win out. 
« Last Edit: March 15, 2015, 05:51:23 PM by Bitcoinfan »

Offline jsidhu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1337
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2015, 05:52:13 PM »
What happen was that Bytemaster ignored the Truthcoin proposal.  fyi augur's origins was truthcoin.  I want you all to remember this could have been part of bitshares...  This also wont be the only prediction market in development that will compete hard against bitshares. 

And delegates for prediction markets are a core disadvantage.  Its a disaster waiting to happen.  I would not trust millions of dollars of trading to transparent delegates that can collude together.

But then wouldnt the same arugment apply when your talking about signing blocks worth alot of money? Isnt it the card we are playing here? Otherwise whats the advantage here if any? I dont think we were at a point to implement truth coin... And its better research is done in another chain before we integrate... I dont think siegnorage coins should be done via prediction markets... With their model they have to...
Hired by blockchain | Developer
delegate: dev.sidhujag

Offline Bitcoinfan

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 235
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2015, 05:59:46 PM »
What happen was that Bytemaster ignored the Truthcoin proposal.  fyi augur's origins was truthcoin.  I want you all to remember this could have been part of bitshares...  This also wont be the only prediction market in development that will compete hard against bitshares. 

And delegates for prediction markets are a core disadvantage.  Its a disaster waiting to happen.  I would not trust millions of dollars of trading to transparent delegates that can collude together.

But then wouldnt the same arugment apply when your talking about signing blocks worth alot of money? Isnt it the card we are playing here? Otherwise whats the advantage here if any? I dont think we were at a point to implement truth coin... And its better research is done in another chain before we integrate... I dont think siegnorage coins should be done via prediction markets... With their model they have to...

No because delegates only have the power to stunt the signed message from transmitting.  It just makes the transaction not go through.  Delegates with the power to decide resolutions, gives them the power to allocate winnings where they please, if they choose to collude. 

Look, truthcoins implementation is much simplier than bitshares.  So to get to a siegnorage coin won't be difficult.

Offline jsidhu

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1337
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2015, 07:25:57 PM »
What happen was that Bytemaster ignored the Truthcoin proposal.  fyi augur's origins was truthcoin.  I want you all to remember this could have been part of bitshares...  This also wont be the only prediction market in development that will compete hard against bitshares. 

And delegates for prediction markets are a core disadvantage.  Its a disaster waiting to happen.  I would not trust millions of dollars of trading to transparent delegates that can collude together.

But then wouldnt the same arugment apply when your talking about signing blocks worth alot of money? Isnt it the card we are playing here? Otherwise whats the advantage here if any? I dont think we were at a point to implement truth coin... And its better research is done in another chain before we integrate... I dont think siegnorage coins should be done via prediction markets... With their model they have to...

No because delegates only have the power to stunt the signed message from transmitting.  It just makes the transaction not go through.  Delegates with the power to decide resolutions, gives them the power to allocate winnings where they please, if they choose to collude. 

Look, truthcoins implementation is much simplier than bitshares.  So to get to a siegnorage coin won't be difficult.
No it isnt.. the reputation system is complex.

What if we vest the winnings over time so that would eliminate colluding. This way any manipulation wont be economical for delegates.
Hired by blockchain | Developer
delegate: dev.sidhujag

Offline Bitcoinfan

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 235
    • View Profile
Re: Bitshares has some serious competition: http://www.augur.net/
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2015, 07:36:07 PM »
Truthcoin is so complicated-- yet their are several teams churning out versions by June.  By June its possible 3 different teams will have the capability of replicating the entire public stock market.  And after a year and a half, what do we have with Bitshares?  We haven't yet received what we were sold on, the polymorphic digital asset.

Your effectively doing the same thing truthcoin is trying to do.  Make the delegates have skin in the game.  With Truthcoin the share ownership is their vested winnings.  And with that your protecting identities as well making the system censorship resistent. 

 

Google+