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Offline luckybit

BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« on: March 21, 2015, 01:13:16 PM »

Of course no one believed me when I called bottom some days ago.
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=15021.msg194235#msg194235
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=14862.msg194026#msg194026

BTS is still overpriced right now but not by much. It's close to bottom but in my opinion could dip to $15 million or below near the launch of Ethereum.

I admit the Darkcoin rise I didn't predict but Ethereum is launching soon along with Maidsafe which both could decrease the market cap of BTS to $15 million or even as low as $13 million.

These dips to $15 million or $13 million will likely be temporary and anyone who is wise already has their BitUSD or BitGLD in expectation of these coming events.

We are in for a rough summer where the price of BTS is now lower than what most of us paid for them during the PTS era. This means if you haven't stored in BitUSD or BitGLD you may actually be losing money right now with the hope and gamble that Bitshares will remain competitive.

Now would be a good time for a sober and realistic analysis of the BTS price.
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Online sudo

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2015, 01:17:29 PM »
what is wrong with the market

Offline luckybit

Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2015, 01:19:44 PM »
For the record I really really want BTS to rise in price but I know what phase we are in. We are in a crypto recession where money is leaving crypto in general. Money which remains is consolidating around projects which are edgey or which threaten the status quo (like Darkcoin) or just flowing straight to Bitcoin due to the fact that Bitcoin seems to be centralizing the whole industry.

Bitshares devs have to keep innovating, keep building, keep improving the software to maintain any possible advantage over Ethereum, NXT, Maidsafe, Omni/Factom, Counterparty.

Competition in the industry is now as fierce as it was when there were several search engines like Yahoo, Excite, Dogpile but no Google. Bitcoin isn't the Google of the industry but it wants to be. Bitcoin isn't naturally scalable but with developer effort it will be and the marketing effort and fact that Bitcoin is becoming synonymous with all Bitcash is going to make for interesting times.

I think when the crypto recession is over Bitshares will rise very quickly. We've seen it happen before in 2013 so we know how quickly the tide can turn and how fast millions or even billions of dollars can flow in our direction.

what is wrong with the market

We are in a crypto recession. When no new money is flowing into the ecosystem every community starts to consolidate itself. So now when new products launch people tend to sell their BTS to buy into those new projects. It's the need to diversify which makes people sell BTS.

Also BTS is centralizing around some really huge holders. This means these huge holders can sell the price down for way less than what most of us paid to get BTS. If you look at the peak of PTS and how much you donated in $ value to get the BTS you have it's more than the $ value of the BTS you currently hold unless you were smart enough to buy BitUSD and hold it all this time.

The people who have lots of BTS or who held BitUSD this whole time can now diversify by selling large amounts of BTS to buy into Ethereum, Maidsafe, Darkcoin, or Bitcoin if it looks like Bitcoin is going to rise.

This happens partially because BTS doesn't have BitEther, BitSafecoin, BitDarkcoin etc. It doesn't have that because there isn't enough liquidity to create it. So as a result people have to buy the real thing rather than trading on the BTS internal market.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2015, 01:24:13 PM by luckybit »
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Offline nomoreheroes7

Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2015, 01:26:12 PM »
This means if you haven't stored in BitUSD or BitGLD you may actually be losing money right now with the hope and gamble that Bitshares will remain competitive.

I'm pretty sure there's a very, very large number of us who have already lost money. lol I'm already down like what, 68% on my BTS. Anyone who bought after the markets first opened for trade is officially losing money at this price.

At this point, for me personally, it's a hodl or crash/burn situation. There's a good chance the bottom is right around $16 mil, but hell that's only like 16% from the current price. I ain't about to play the market at this point, considering all the losses I've already weathered. I'll just keep hodling and pray for a miracle I guess.

Some awesome new development/news/anything right about now would be nice, though  :P.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2015, 01:28:32 PM by nomoreheroes7 »

Offline luckybit

Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2015, 01:42:59 PM »
This means if you haven't stored in BitUSD or BitGLD you may actually be losing money right now with the hope and gamble that Bitshares will remain competitive.

I'm pretty sure there's a very, very large number of us who have already lost money. lol I'm already down like what, 68% on my BTS. Anyone who bought after the markets first opened for trade is officially losing money at this price.

At this point, for me personally, it's a hodl or crash/burn situation. There's a good chance the bottom is right around $16 mil, but hell that's only like 16% from the current price. I ain't about to play the market at this point, considering all the losses I've already weathered. I'll just keep hodling and pray for a miracle I guess.

Some awesome new development/news/anything right about now would be nice, though  :P.

I'll reveal a secret. Success in engineering is about how resilient your design is to change. The reason I have faith in Bitshares is because I've watched step by step how the design was made and I can see that it is one of the most adaptable designs right now.

The only two competitors in terms of adaptability are Ethereum and NXT.  Everyone else is going to be copying or reacting.

The reason being adaptable to change is so important is because an adaptive system must be able to survive under uncertain market conditions. So for example the fact that Bitshares allows us to save our profits in BitUSD or BitGLD is a huge advantage over NXT, Bitcoin and the other volatile "currencies" which don't allow this. The fact that Bitshares has a mechanism for self funding is a good thing even if I don't really think the method is the best or most efficient way it's at least there and this means Bitshares can be developed even during a recession.

Strategically if Bitshares is developed to take advantage of the next wave then we'll all win when and if there is a next wave. If we have another year like 2013 in 2016 then Bitshares by that time should be in a great position to increase it's market cap into the single digit billions. Ethereum might be competitive but Litecoin of all things had a marketcap which hit a billion dollars at one point, and then there was Ripple Auroracoin and a bunch of others.

If Bitshares makes it into the billions of marketcap then it's designed to accelerate. Of course if that happens again with the market cap now you know to immediately buy your BitUSD.
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Offline Empirical1.2

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2015, 02:13:31 PM »
I predicted that if you broke the 0.5 CNY and $20 million seal you could see BTS dip quite sharply.

There seems to be some significant buying support though, even at this level. I'm assuming it's in anticipation of Moonstone.

The new BitShares however has never generated gains. That was BitSharesX.

If you put Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, DarkCoin, NXT and BitShares in a group. BitShares would be the odd one out.

If you want to take the island burn the boats

Offline inarizushi

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2015, 02:23:33 PM »
If nothing is done NOW, it's impossible to short, the market peg won't hold, and it's over for us all. But nobody seems to really care... lol. Worst crisis handling ever.
Please have a bit of empathy for the stupid ones who have kept shorting all the way down.
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Offline kenCode

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2015, 03:04:58 PM »
I too would like to see updates from the Delegates that are responsible for fixing bugs found, especially emergency bugs like the one with shorting. I have not tried shorting yet, so I can't comment, but it concerns me if a bug in the software is causing me to lose money. Not cool. Maybe they have a blog or something on github where we can monitor the changes being made for said bug?

On a lighter note, I am happy to keep on buying right to the bottom.. bts and bitassets. ive been moving and keeping 80% of my bts in bitassets. Bitshares won't be as 'big' as ripple, nxt or btc for a while yet, but thats ok with me, i know i wont get rich overnight.

i'm in this for the long haul. the technology developed is the value. the gui's will come, then the masses will follow, but right now, i'm gonna quietly sit here and invest for our future. bts can ultimately win over the btc'ers imo. especially once wall street crashes again.
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Offline luckybit

Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2015, 03:11:05 PM »
I predicted that if you broke the 0.5 CNY and $20 million seal you could see BTS dip quite sharply.

There seems to be some significant buying support though, even at this level. I'm assuming it's in anticipation of Moonstone.

The new BitShares however has never generated gains. That was BitSharesX.

If you put Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, DarkCoin, NXT and BitShares in a group. BitShares would be the odd one out.
I agree with you and it might have to do with the fact that the new Bitshares is designed to dilute us by a certain percentage each year.  In fact I had my reservations as did Cob and others about this process not so much because I'm against it but because we are in a recession and the market is looking for a safe place to park wealth to weather the storm. BTS is safe only if you know exactly how to use it and know to buy BitUSD or BitGLD immediately.

Why aren't more people trading on it? Because not enough liquidity. I think Moonstone can help but Moonstone wont provide price support for several months even if it is a critical piece to the puzzle.

I would say anyone who has money left after going through these losses should consider donating to Moonstone. It's in everyone's best interest to give as much as they can and I see it as another Angelshares type deal where it could be that by strategically donating to Moonstone now we can not only possibly get our money back with 15% to make up for the dilution we experienced but also help save the marketcap in the long term.

Moonstone is quite risky though and unlike with the original Angelshares --> Bitshares donation this one is during a recession where a lot more is perceived to be at stake. When Bitshares was being built there wasn't anything else like it so it was a no-brainer at the time to put everything into it. Also Protoshares didn't really seem like it would ever become anything if Angelshares weren't a success.

Now Bitshares might hinge it's success on Moonstone. If Moonstone isn't the best wallet then Bitshares will have a very difficult time with Ethereum and NXT both could have superior specs and more momentum. Do not underestimate the momentum of having Turing complete scripting languages or the fact that NXT is based on Java which is a language almost every comp sci student knows.

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Offline luckybit

Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2015, 03:22:27 PM »
I too would like to see updates from the Delegates that are responsible for fixing bugs found, especially emergency bugs like the one with shorting. I have not tried shorting yet, so I can't comment, but it concerns me if a bug in the software is causing me to lose money. Not cool. Maybe they have a blog or something on github where we can monitor the changes being made for said bug?

On a lighter note, I am happy to keep on buying right to the bottom.. bts and bitassets. ive been moving and keeping 80% of my bts in bitassets. Bitshares won't be as 'big' as ripple, nxt or btc for a while yet, but thats ok with me, i know i wont get rich overnight.

i'm in this for the long haul. the technology developed is the value. the gui's will come, then the masses will follow, but right now, i'm gonna quietly sit here and invest for our future. bts can ultimately win over the btc'ers imo. especially once wall street crashes again.

You do realize if you don't predict the right bottom you could lose money. It all depends on when you went 80% into BitAssets. If you did it months ago then I must commend you for your sagacity.
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Offline donkeypong

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2015, 03:39:45 PM »
All in and staying in. Thick and thin.

Offline JA

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2015, 03:46:12 PM »
All in and staying in. Thick and thin.
YEAH my brother!  8)
Take it like a man.

Offline kenCode

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2015, 04:06:13 PM »
Moonstone and the wallet.bitshares.org will bring bts to the masses.
Peertracks *the musicians friend* will hit facebook and tweeters like a firestorm, a major gig.
The voting thing is awesome too.
Most importantly tho ultimately, bts can replace wall street. thats what, a 500 trillion dollar market.. how about the cac and dax and other markets that will also crash in the next couple years.. dont sweat guys, theres a huge place for bts in the coming months, dont be so antsy.
get the wiki done and keep a designated Delegate on it, offer up dns services, get the api's to every dapp possible, keep buying and posting tidbits on twitter, disqus, fb, gplus, reddit etc. bts isnt dying by any means. how long did it take to build the first stable version of linux.. a lot more than 1 year thats for sure.
yes, i know im losing money buying bts on its way down. i dont care. the number of bitshares i own wont change. i buy on every dip and transfer most of it to bitassets, done. i know most of you have been waiting longer than me but youll never get rich quick in this game. this is a buy and hold for me.
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Offline nomoreheroes7

Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2015, 04:08:41 PM »
i buy on every dip and transfer most of it to bitassets, done.

...isn't buying then transferring to stable bitassets the same as...not buying? Well I guess it supports the system, but still. If you're transferring large amounts to bitassets then it doesn't really matter when you buy BTS, on the dips or otherwise, right?

Offline kenCode

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Re: BTS price, where is the bottom? Prediction: $15-18 million.
« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2015, 04:23:00 PM »
yeah, kinda, i just buy it as i can afford it. i keep some in bts so i have money to play with in the volatility, but most of it just goes into bitassets. the banks are paying squat, arbitrage isnt working yet and at least bitassets are getting me 2 percent or so. the api should allow all the arbitrage bots to sync up with bts too, that would really up the cap i think.
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