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Offline Chuckone

Bitshares price discussion
« on: June 12, 2015, 04:05:43 PM »

First of all, I know that a lot of you (me as well included) are here for the long run, so short term price is not a pressing concern in the sense that we're not waiting for a rise to dump our holding and make a quick profit. I'm hoarding and accumulating because I really believe in the long term success of the platform, economically and idealogically, even more since the announcement of Bitshares 2.0. At some point I wasn't totally convinced it could go mainstream, but now it's totally clear in my mind Bitshares will become real big at some point.

That being said, I'm still wondering why the price has dropped since the announcement? Other than "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of answer, is there a logical explanation to the current situation?

In 2014 at some point we had a marketcap of more than 60-70M$ with a real buggy client and not even half the features that will come up with 2.0.

Was it all only hype and speculation, or is it because Bitshares is seriously undervalued right now?

Part of it may be because the market hasn't realized yet the potential of Bitshares 2.0 and that all those close to the project are actually already fully invested?

I'd like to have the perspective of traders (and everybody else also) on the subject!
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Offline lil_jay890

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2015, 04:15:16 PM »
The June 8th announcement was detailed on what could happen, but lacked when this would be put into effect.  Right now it sounds like it may be 3-5 months out.  Most crypto traders don't have that sort of time frame and hot money will start to filter out as bts stagnates around this market cap.

Remember NXT had a value of near 100million last year as well and they are down to 11million.  Ripple was worth near 1billion and has lost 75%.  Crypto is full of pump and dumps because liquidity is thin.

Offline Permie

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2015, 04:16:53 PM »
I haven't been here that long so I'm not so well informed but from reading comments on bitcointalk etc most people are simply uninformed about BitShares and were put off by the numerous hard forks and no clear direction.
I understand that all the changes were done for the good of the ecosystem but I don't think that message has permeated through yet and solid evidence in support is yet to come.
If everything in 2.0 works as described and the referral program starts paying marketers then the brand awareness problem will disappear!
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Offline Ander

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2015, 04:21:42 PM »
Remember NXT had a value of near 100million last year as well and they are down to 11million.  Ripple was worth near 1billion and has lost 75%.  Crypto is full of pump and dumps because liquidity is thin.

...Vertcoin was worth 10M two days ago now its worth 3.5. :P
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Offline xeroc

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2015, 04:24:18 PM »
I haven't been here that long so I'm not so well informed but from reading comments on bitcointalk etc most people are simply uninformed about BitShares and were put off by the numerous hard forks and no clear direction.
I understand that all the changes were done for the good of the ecosystem but I don't think that message has permeated through yet and solid evidence in support is yet to come.
If everything in 2.0 works as described and the referral program starts paying marketers then the brand awareness problem will disappear!
This .. + no one knows there will be powerful scripting in bts2.0 too ..
that .. in combo with bitUSD = world domination ... harharhar :P
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Offline bitmeat

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2015, 04:35:39 PM »
First of all, I know that a lot of you (me as well included) are here for the long run, so short term price is not a pressing concern in the sense that we're not waiting for a rise to dump our holding and make a quick profit. I'm hoarding and accumulating because I really believe in the long term success of the platform, economically and idealogically, even more since the announcement of Bitshares 2.0. At some point I wasn't totally convinced it could go mainstream, but now it's totally clear in my mind Bitshares will become real big at some point.

That being said, I'm still wondering why the price has dropped since the announcement? Other than "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of answer, is there a logical explanation to the current situation?

In 2014 at some point we had a marketcap of more than 60-70M$ with a real buggy client and not even half the features that will come up with 2.0.

Was it all only hype and speculation, or is it because Bitshares is seriously undervalued right now?

Part of it may be because the market hasn't realized yet the potential of Bitshares 2.0 and that all those close to the project are actually already fully invested?

I'd like to have the perspective of traders (and everybody else also) on the subject!

The announcement lacks a LOT of detail. So it's really a glorified wishlist. Not that it's a bad thing, but there are a lot of moving parts and a lot that could go wrong. It also lacks whitepapers and peer reviews / security analysis. That's just what I see as a risk, which perhaps is being priced in.

The other thing is that this project keeps changing things and is constantly course correcting, not that this is a bad thing, but it's hard to take it seriously. Would you trust holding $10M in BitUSD with it? I know I wouldn't just yet.

Offline karnal

Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2015, 04:46:50 PM »
I too am holding because I really believe BitShares will be revolutionary. Momentarily I had my doubts because of the removal of TITAN (it would go from revolutionary to enabling economic totalitariasm a la ripple), but BM has said he has some sweet plans in the privacy arena, and so far I don't doubt the man.

When the new client hits, we must all do our best to spread the word and inform the masses. This technology is simply better than anything else there is, and if the code matches the promises being made, I do believe the project has a very solid foundation.

Then we just need people getting paid in SmartCoins, merchants accepting them, and normal people using the system.
The market cap will explode upwards - it has to.


Offline Ander

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2015, 04:59:55 PM »
That being said, I'm still wondering why the price has dropped since the announcement? Other than "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of answer, is there a logical explanation to the current situation?

Thats actually a pretty logical explanation actually.  Its definitely a thing that happens.  Look at the coinbase bitcoin pump in January to 300, then crashed as soon as the news actually came out.

Another explanation:
You could also say that after a rise from .02 to .052, this is a perferctly normal correction.  A 50% retracement would be pretty normal and that was around .036.  We were very close to hitting it exactly.

If you look at the chart for the past several months, it looks like a huge cup and handle.  The big decline and rally is the cup, and the recent smaller decline to .036 and rally is the handle.  This is very very bullish if we manage to go back up and break to new highs, which I expect to happen eventually.

For the short term, we are still in a corrective pattern waiting for the next rally to get going.  Corrections are often in an ABC format (down-up-down).  We had the A, the B, and we are in the C, so it could be almost over.  (On the other hand, sometimes C drags on a long time, so who knows). 

The correction could be about over now (looking like a symmetrical triangle - a triangle with a lower high and a higher low), or take us back to .036 CNY again before finishing (a descending triangle).  While triangles are usually continuation patterns, which would indicate it should break up since we are now in an uptrend, descending triangles often break downward.  If that happened we would go to around .032, for a .618 fib retracement.


From an elliot wave perspective, the recent move from .0198 to .0527 looks clearly impulsive, that is, its a 5 wave move with strong volume.  Wave 3 (the push in mid may up to .04) was largest and had the most volume, which fits.  The move ended at .0527.  This was a big wave I of a new bull market move in BTS.  The fact that it is very clearly an impulse indicates that another move up must follow it.  We are currently in wave 2 which is taking a triangle shape as described above.  Wave 2s often retrace sharply.  A lot of traders dont trust the price rise after such a terrible decline before, so they are quick to bail on the new uptrend.  That is what we have to get through now. 

A corrective wave often retraces into the area of the previous 4th wave of lower degree.  In our case that is the correction on May 22-23rd, from .0408 to .031.  We have already dropped into that range so we dont 'need' to fall further.  But we could drop as low as .031 and it would still be perfectly normal. 

If we manage to fall to the low .03s I would do everything you could to buy there.  It would probably be followed by a sharp rise back up and then rally far above the recent .0527 high.   Or you could just buy here in the low .04s, the drift lower that we are experiencing could end any time and be followed by a sharp rise. 



To summarize, the very strong volume of the recent rise, its sharpness relative to the pace of the recent downtrend (we recovered from .02 to .05 faster than we fell from .05 to .02), and the structure of the rise (three parts, with the strongest buying in the middle), are indicative that it was an impulse wave, and that it "must" be followed by another rise, according to the rules of elliot wave.  Our fundamental understanding of bitshares that good things are coming soon supports this view as well.  So I would buy as much as you can.  The only question is do you buy now, or wait, hoping for a price in the .03s to buy, but possibly risk missing out. 




Quote
In 2014 at some point we had a marketcap of more than 60-70M$ with a real buggy client and not even half the features that will come up with 2.0.

Was it all only hype and speculation, or is it because Bitshares is seriously undervalued right now?

Probably some of both, plus bitcoin dropped. 

Quote
Part of it may be because the market hasn't realized yet the potential of Bitshares 2.0 and that all those close to the project are actually already fully invested?

Yes I think so.  Those of us who have been here a while mostly bought already, we are buying more when we can of course.  We probably have most of the money we are willing to allocate to crypto in already.  We need to attract new investors to replace those that panic dumped over the past months.  But I think this is happening.  BTS had a huge push up indicative of new money coming in.  It also attracted some momentum traders who pushed it up higher but are now cashing back out because it stopped rising.  We just need to wait out their selling a bit longer and get a bit more new money and we will go up again.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 05:02:17 PM by Ander »
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Offline Chuckone

Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2015, 06:00:08 PM »

Thanks Ander for the technical analysis. I don't know much about that subject but I know enough to understand it's a powerful tool that needs to be considered seriously when you one want to predict short/mid term movements. Personnally I don't try to time my buys with the lowest of the lows in fear of missing out, so since we hit the bottom at 8.5M$ market cap I try to buy as much as I'm comfortable to before the next big push upward.

And with all the new gateways that popped up in the last months (Metaexchange, Blocktrades, CCEDK) Bitshares we'll be ready to receive all that new money!
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Offline jsidhu

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2015, 06:05:47 PM »
wasnt there one more (biggest) news promised by BM about an exchange or something coming (which wasnt CCEDK) that he said he would release news soonish near the announcement of bts 2.0?
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Offline infovortice2013

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2015, 06:08:59 PM »
wasnt there one more (biggest) news promised by BM about an exchange or something coming (which wasnt CCEDK) that he said he would release news soonish near the announcement of bts 2.0?

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Offline Shentist

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2015, 06:10:51 PM »
it was a big ANN but not what most of the people expected - at least not me!

I am still waiting for the ANN for the integration to the FIAT world, because bytemaster wrote the CCDEX was not the partner he will announce in this month.

For the future the proposal and changes will be hopefully good, the only concern i have is the really high transaction fees.

For example - I am from Germany - most of all bankaccounts are totaly free and you don't pay anything for transactions.Payments are routed in 24 hours. The competition is so brutal, some banks
will pay you for using your creditcards etc.. So the transaction costs are well hidden and it will be hard to convince the critical mass to get into crypto without a next financial crisis.


Offline mint chocolate chip

Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2015, 06:27:41 PM »
Bitcoin was worth double or triple what it is worth now, BitShares price is relative to Bitcoin's price, so that is partly responsible for the reason the total market cap in dollars is much lower than it once was.

Offline Ander

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2015, 06:29:35 PM »
wasnt there one more (biggest) news promised by BM about an exchange or something coming (which wasnt CCEDK) that he said he would release news soonish near the announcement of bts 2.0?

Hmm.  I thought it was CCEDK. 

To me the best news was 100k TPS, 1 second block time, with a new web client so people dont have to run the current slow bitshares client.  And the 'lessons learned' which resulted in improvements to many aspects of bitshares that currently arent working well enough.  And the referral program.  And the goal to generate fees to help bitshares become profitable (especially with the addition of the burn worker). 


Of course these are all things that are "coming this summer" but not yet released, so it makes sense that the market isnt sure that they are true yet.  When they release for real the price will probably react better.
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