Author Topic: Roger Ver reveals prediction market project-- Truthcoin  (Read 7799 times)

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Offline arhag

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How did bitshares ever let Roger Ver  sweep down and poach this project?

The answer to that is easy: Bitcoin maximalism.

The real question is why aren't we able to convince Augur to use our platform rather than the much slower Ethereum (plus we already have BitUSD working while they are still working on eDollar).

Why would you want Augur on your platform?   What makes you so sure Augur have the right talent when of all the groundwork was from Paul?

I would love it if Paul wanted to build a prediction market system for BitShares. I'm not holding my breath though. He seems to really dislike BitShares and pretty much any other system that could potentially compete with Bitcoin.

The Augur team seems less antagonistic against altcoins considering they're currently building their technology on Ethereum and also they are coin-agnostic as far as which coins their platform will support for betting.

Nevertheless, I predict the BitShares devs will have to end up doing the prediction market work all by themselves.

Offline Bitcoinfan

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How did bitshares ever let Roger Ver  sweep down and poach this project?

The answer to that is easy: Bitcoin maximalism.

The real question is why aren't we able to convince Augur to use our platform rather than the much slower Ethereum (plus we already have BitUSD working while they are still working on eDollar).

Why would you want Augur on your platform?   What makes you so sure Augur have the right talent when of all the groundwork was from Paul?

Offline Bitcoinfan

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prediction markets without smart coins don't work.    The volatility of the underlying asset overwhelms any profit or loss made by predicting the outcome of the event.

No-order book prediction markets can work only if the underlying asset is an IOU. That IOU in turn is only stable if it is a representation of another IOU. It needs to be a recursive system in time rather than a self-referential system. I can only think of one way how to do that on a blockchain.

No Truthcoin bets are not IOU's....  Its no different than having one market ask: what is the Bitcoin Price in Usd at the End of September, and who will win the first Monday Night Football game.  The crossroad of answers between these two is the winning bet.

Yes, we looked into doing these kinds of prediction markets.   I think it will work so long as the initial collateral is sufficient to handle the change in price over the period of the bet.

That's probably where the Liquidity Sensitive LSMR comes in handle.  Unless I'm mistaken, it doesn't matter as much what the initial collateral is. 

Offline Bitcoinfan

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There are disadvantages (you need to "sync" with usd price close time) but it's not nearly as bad as you're implying

I still haven't wrapped my head around the details of how combinatorial prediction markets compensate for the betting asset's price volatility (despite reading Paul's papers), but it still seems clear to me that it is the inferior solution compared to betting with stablecoins directly. For one, collateral levels backing BitUSD can continuously be updated over long periods of time as the collateral asset price drops significantly over this time. I am not sure how this would work in a combinatorial prediciton market, but I would imagine there should be some lower bound for how low the price could drop from the initial price at the start of the PM before the peg would break. Second, there can be considerable delay from the date at which the USD price is reported and the time the payments are actually settled. For example, in Augur it seems this delay is 2 months. Obviously the reporters cannot report a USD price that has not yet happened, so that means the earliest access the winners will have to the collateral asset is 2 months after the fair settlement price was determined. In those 2 months the price of the collateral asset could have dropped even more relative to USD. Also, they would be forced to dump it in exchange for USD as soon as possible after settlement to no longer be exposed to the price changes of the collateral asset, whereas with BitUSD the holders can take their time to incrementally trade fractions of their BitUSD holdings into USD (via the collateral asset if necessary), assuming they even want to bother when they already have the option of just holding it as BitUSD, without needing to worry as much about slippage in the market.

TLDR

Short answer is look at this demo.  Any of these markets can be combined combinatorially.  Therefore QID10 can be combined with QID7&/QID6. Since the bet requires two answers (DJIA Price) and (Who wins Superbowl), you get the market for sports betting with the stability of DJIA.   

https://lyoshenka.ocpu.io/truthcoindemo/www/


Offline bytemaster

prediction markets without smart coins don't work.    The volatility of the underlying asset overwhelms any profit or loss made by predicting the outcome of the event.

No-order book prediction markets can work only if the underlying asset is an IOU. That IOU in turn is only stable if it is a representation of another IOU. It needs to be a recursive system in time rather than a self-referential system. I can only think of one way how to do that on a blockchain.

No Truthcoin bets are not IOU's....  Its no different than having one market ask: what is the Bitcoin Price in Usd at the End of September, and who will win the first Monday Night Football game.  The crossroad of answers between these two is the winning bet.

Yes, we looked into doing these kinds of prediction markets.   I think it will work so long as the initial collateral is sufficient to handle the change in price over the period of the bet.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline Bitcoinfan

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prediction markets without smart coins don't work.    The volatility of the underlying asset overwhelms any profit or loss made by predicting the outcome of the event.

No-order book prediction markets can work only if the underlying asset is an IOU. That IOU in turn is only stable if it is a representation of another IOU. It needs to be a recursive system in time rather than a self-referential system. I can only think of one way how to do that on a blockchain.

No Truthcoin bets are not IOU's....  Its no different than having one market ask: what is the Bitcoin Price in Usd at the End of September, and who will win the first Monday Night Football game.  The crossroad of answers between these two is the winning bet.

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aaannnnd that's the reason I'm moving on.  Good luck friends.



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Offline bitsapphire

How did bitshares ever let Roger Ver  sweep down and poach this project?

The answer to that is easy: Bitcoin maximalism.

The real question is why aren't we able to convince Augur to use our platform rather than the much slower Ethereum (plus we already have BitUSD working while they are still working on eDollar).


As far as I am informed they aren't actually building on top of Etheruem. They plan on forking Ethereum and doing an ethereum-bitcoin sidechain that supports both eth sha3 as well as btc sha2.

Additionally the Ethereum VM is being used for experimentation purposes by most institutions looking into blockchain tech at this point as the barriers to entry are practically zero. It's developing into a standard. That said, based on what I've read so far on BTS2.0, the technical decisions that have gone into 2.0 are superior in almost every way to the EVM.
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Offline bitsapphire

prediction markets without smart coins don't work.    The volatility of the underlying asset overwhelms any profit or loss made by predicting the outcome of the event.

No-order book prediction markets can work only if the underlying asset is an IOU. That IOU in turn is only stable if it is a representation of another IOU. It needs to be a recursive system in time rather than a self-referential system. I can only think of one way how to do that on a blockchain.

A no-order book prediction market has several advantages to the smartcoin setup for actual predictive value. As far as I am up to date, the current smartcoin setup isn't technically a *prediction" market as it has no predictive value, it's more like an advanced schelling coin setup which pushed all market members towards a information focal point.
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Offline cass

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IMHO, Roger Ver has always come across as a pompous ass.

i'm disagree with your opinion here!
█║▌║║█  - - -  The quieter you become, the more you are able to hear  - - -  █║▌║║█

Tuck Fheman

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IMHO, Roger Ver has always come across as a pompous ass.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Do you know Roger personally or are you commenting on his online persona (tweets/post)?

Offline luckybit

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prediction markets without smart coins don't work.    The volatility of the underlying asset overwhelms any profit or loss made by predicting the outcome of the event.

Where is your twitter account? You should tweet that.
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Offline phillyguy

IMHO, Roger Ver has always come across as a pompous ass.


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Offline arhag

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There are disadvantages (you need to "sync" with usd price close time) but it's not nearly as bad as you're implying

I still haven't wrapped my head around the details of how combinatorial prediction markets compensate for the betting asset's price volatility (despite reading Paul's papers), but it still seems clear to me that it is the inferior solution compared to betting with stablecoins directly. For one, collateral levels backing BitUSD can continuously be updated over long periods of time as the collateral asset price drops significantly over this time. I am not sure how this would work in a combinatorial prediciton market, but I would imagine there should be some lower bound for how low the price could drop from the initial price at the start of the PM before the peg would break. Second, there can be considerable delay from the date at which the USD price is reported and the time the payments are actually settled. For example, in Augur it seems this delay is 2 months. Obviously the reporters cannot report a USD price that has not yet happened, so that means the earliest access the winners will have to the collateral asset is 2 months after the fair settlement price was determined. In those 2 months the price of the collateral asset could have dropped even more relative to USD. Also, they would be forced to dump it in exchange for USD as soon as possible after settlement to no longer be exposed to the price changes of the collateral asset, whereas with BitUSD the holders can take their time to incrementally trade fractions of their BitUSD holdings into USD (via the collateral asset if necessary), assuming they even want to bother when they already have the option of just holding it as BitUSD, without needing to worry as much about slippage in the market.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2015, 10:35:19 pm by arhag »

Offline bytemaster

prediction markets without smart coins don't work.    The volatility of the underlying asset overwhelms any profit or loss made by predicting the outcome of the event.
That's what the multidemnsional msr is for. The interface can handle making it look like a dollar-denominated bet for a single event. There are disadvantages (you need to "sync" with usd price close time) but it's not nearly as bad as you're implying

Can you explain how MD MSR work?
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Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.