Author Topic: Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets trading  (Read 2962 times)

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Offline morpheus

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Both Crude Oil and S&P 500 Prediction Market (Binary Option) assets still trading


S&P 500 testing resistance at the 50 dma after double bottom near 1810.




Oil in a similar situation testing its 50 dma trying to break up its seemingly relentless downtrend.


Offline morpheus

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Futures down sharply this morning.  Both S&P 500 and oil testing lower support.






Quote
It is not just DB: as we have been warning for the past month, and especially last Friday, the blow out across the entire European bank sector is starting to resemble Lehman levels
Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds



The super bowl prediction market asset was successfully settled.  Check it out to get an idea of how these assets trade.http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPORTS.SBLAFC
Openledger

Offline morpheus

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Lets see if the correlation lasts
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For nearly all of 2016 so far, the narrative has been that if you want to know which way stocks are going, just ask crude.
S&P 500 And Crude Oil Back On Track


We have had our first few trades now in WTICRUDECheck it out

Offline morpheus

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Some help keeping the btctalk thread on the first page would be greatly appreciated.  I have bumped it about as much as I can without getting annoying.  We need to keep bts in people's minds at btctalk.

I plan to post commentary on occasion about these assets.  We will see how much interest we get.

Offline morpheus

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How to gain synthetic leverage with bitshares binary options.

If the S&P 500 is trading at or near 1875, then the SPFIVE binary option should trade around 0.5 bts/SPFIVE as it would be considered ‘at the money’.  Of course the actual price is dependent on liquidity and market participants.  Suppose you take out a short position at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE and suppose the S&P 500 loses half its value to trade at 937.5 by October.  At that point, SPFIVE market participants would likely determine that the chances are very low that the S&P 500 would get back to 1875 and they would subsequently price the option very low.  Suppose you could then buy your SPFIVE back at 0.1 bts (or lower) to cover the short position you took at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE.  That gives you a gain of 80% using the binary option trade vs a 50% gain with a standard, non-leveraged short.  Holding the option until expiration will give you a 100% gain.  However, if the S&P 500 finishes above 1875 at the end of the year, then you lose 100% if you are still short any SPFIVE, but this risk profile is similar to any other kind of leveraged financial product.  The point is binary options are inherently more volatile than the underlying asset, giving traders synthetic leverage, especially as the contract gets closer to the expiration date.

Greeks are often used to gauge the theoretical values of options as derived from performance of the underlying asset and time constraints.  I don’t fully understand them and don’t use them personally as I don’t see the need but they are useful to many traders. 
« Last Edit: February 02, 2016, 06:26:23 am by morpheus »

Offline puppies

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Some help keeping the btctalk thread on the first page would be greatly appreciated.  I have bumped it about as much as I can without getting annoying.  We need to keep bts in people's minds at btctalk.
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline morpheus

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Interesting to see your technical analysis.
Personal offer : Would you be interested in collaborating on trading blue chip stocks ?
My personal forte has been fundamental analysis and am picking up on technical's.
I keep a personal fund of 100 USd, leverage at around 15 and make about 10-20 usd a day.
Would love to partner up and share info/thoughts.

I don't usually trade stocks, especially since I think they are mostly overvalued right now.  If anything I may short, but probably not.  Good luck though as I could be wrong.

Offline Xypher

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Some Technical Analysis:

Crude has come back within the long-term range from 10 to 40.  Will it stay there is the question, especially with all the debasement of fiat currencies.




S&P 500 long-term uptrend still intact




Death Cross with bullish divergence and weekly support.  Will we see some range-bound consolidation here?  Iffy


Interesting to see your technical analysis.
Personal offer : Would you be interested in collaborating on trading blue chip stocks ?
My personal forte has been fundamental analysis and am picking up on technical's.
I keep a personal fund of 100 USd, leverage at around 15 and make about 10-20 usd a day.
Would love to partner up and share info/thoughts.

Offline morpheus

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Some Technical Analysis:

Crude has come back within the long-term range from 10 to 40.  Will it stay there is the question, especially with all the debasement of fiat currencies.




S&P 500 long-term uptrend still intact




Death Cross with bullish divergence and weekly support.  Will we see some range-bound consolidation here?  Iffy


Offline morpheus

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This thread is on bitcointalk and I am also posting it here. 

The following Prediction Market assets are available for trading.

SPFIVE - If the S&P 500 is at or above $1875.00 on December 30th 2016 then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the S&P 500 is below $1875.00 then this asset will be worth 0BTS.

WTICRUDE - If the price of WTI Crude oil is greater or equal to $40.00 on December 30th at 4PM eastern time. (UTC-5) then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the price is below $40.00 this asset will be worth 0BTS. If you believe that the price will be above $40.00 buy and hold. If you beleive the price will be below $40.00 borrow and sell.

Click here for more information on how this Prediction Market works.

To trade:
1.    create an account on the OpenLedger platform
2.   Fund the account with bitshares – other assets are less liquid at the moment but should eventually be available for trading.  So for now, you will probably have to use the native currency, bts
3.   Navigate to your market of choice:



4.   Place your bets

Disclaimer:  I am in no way responsible for any problems or financial loss that may occur when using this (still experimental) system.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2016, 05:03:05 pm by morpheus »