Market Talk – September 2nd, 2015

[Tuck Fheman]

Nice job completely dismantling Martin Armstrong!

You seem to have selectively missed my earlier post, in which I logically took on the points he'd made. No rebuttal from you on that one. I posted again only because you tried to hold him out again as some kind of credible authority. If he's an authority, then so is the guy drinking at the bar who can tell you his views on nearly anything. I'd like to see Mr. Armstrong's evidence for these cycles of empire and how he arbitrarily chooses dates. Because if he uses the life of an empire as the cycle, then he should be using almost 500 years for the Roman Empire, not 86. If that's the true benchmark, then the U.S. monetary system empire should have another 200-300 years remaining (even though I think it's idiotic to think everything will last the same length of time). On the flipside, if he's measuring the decline only, then why include the U.S.' glory years in his decline cycle? The last 86 years of the Roman Empire definitely do not include many of its best years. Dude makes no sense.

All systems tend to collapse in ten 8.6-year waves,

What is the author's basis for this statement? The only "system" I see mentioned is the Roman Empire, which lasted closer to 500 years than 86 years. Even if he arbitrarily picked a date when it's "decline" began, it's fairly simple to date that when it is one system. How much historical data does he have on other empires to come up with his 86 years? And measuring the U.S. decline with its "socialism", including even our greatest years in his measurement of the decline? Sorry, man, but that's just laughable. There's a lot of crap on the Internet along with some good stuff. Look for better stuff than this.

Perhaps some background on who he is will help : https://youtu.be/iJNEjq7I5Is

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

I did reply to your earlier post, see above.

If you'd like to debate Martin Armstrong or find out why he believes what he believes feel free to contact him with your questions and ideas.

I'm sure he'd be more than happy to answer your questions on his methods, but I am not his spokesperson. I provided a link to an article as a jab at Ander.

Martin's story is interesting, which led me to research why he was, "in prison over 7 years for failure to surrender various assets, including the source code for his company's economic model".

Apparently something about what he has to say disturbs you, why is that, if you are so confident in your own current "world view"?


Edit: Also, I'm not sure but I think you created a strawman to argue with based off of a one paragraph summary of a shitload of data and twisted possibilities into definites.

But perhaps I'm misunderstanding your argument, so I'll leave you and Mr. Armstrong to figure that out. 

All systems tend to collapse in ten 8.6-year waves, and the last 4.3 years are typically the worst. That is what we should see between 2015.75 and 2020.05. By comparison, the Roman Emperor Valerian I was the first emperor captured by the enemy. He was used as a footstool while wearing the purple robe of an emperor. When he died, he was stuffed like a trophy. That was in 260 AD. The next four years saw a complete collapse of everything, including religion. Romans prayed but nothing happened; this is when Christianity took off.

We are now approaching that same last 4.3-year leg in socialism from 1934. This is the peak in confidence in government and it will evaporate rapidly as it did in 260 AD. This is not the end of the world, but it will be a chance to push back to restore our liberty. It will get bad at first because government will fight hard going into 2017. By mid-2018, we should begin to see the trend with more clarity for once and all.

[donkeypong]

Nice job completely dismantling Martin Armstrong!

You seem to have selectively missed my earlier post, in which I logically took on the points he'd made. No rebuttal from you on that one. I posted again only because you tried to hold him out again as some kind of credible authority. If he's an authority, then so is the guy drinking at the bar who can tell you his views on nearly anything. I'd like to see Mr. Armstrong's evidence for these cycles of empire and how he arbitrarily chooses dates. Because if he uses the life of an empire as the cycle, then he should be using almost 500 years for the Roman Empire, not 86. If that's the true benchmark, then the U.S. monetary system empire should have another 200-300 years remaining (even though I think it's idiotic to think everything will last the same length of time). On the flipside, if he's measuring the decline only, then why include the U.S.' glory years in his decline cycle? The last 86 years of the Roman Empire definitely do not include many of its best years. Dude makes no sense.

[Tuck Fheman]

ftfm

[mint chocolate chip]

[Tuck Fheman]

He's a clown. If you're looking for Internet sources to re-enforce your worldview, then a Google search or two should turn up some more credible sources.

Person A presents an argument.
Person B attacks person A's character.
Therefore person A's argument is invalid.

Nice job completely dismantling Martin Armstrong!


Debate Team Victory Dance

[mint chocolate chip]

"What to do as an investor? Recognize that the above recommendations are politically Pollyannaish. The Merkel dominated EU will not change any time soon, nor will Bernie Sanders be elected U.S. President. Global fiscal (and monetary) policy is not now constructive nor growth enhancing, nor is it likely to be. If that be the case, then equity market capital gains and future returns are likely to be limited if not downward sloping. High quality global bond markets offer little reward relative to durational risk. Private equity and hedge related returns cannot long prosper if global growth remains anemic. Cash or better yet “near cash” such as 1-2 year corporate bonds are my best idea of appropriate risks/reward investments. The reward is not much, but as Will Rogers once said during the Great Depression – “I’m not so much concerned about the return on my money as the return of my money."

"In the long run though, the return of your money will likely not pay for college, healthcare, or retirement liabilities. That is the near global conundrum we are faced with as near zero percent interest rates limit capital gains in the future, and if raised too high, will lead to redzone losses. Not much else to say here. Finance based capitalism with its zero bound interest rates has now produced global imbalances that impair productive growth and with it the chances for “old normal” prosperity. Whether you are tall or short, or your portfolio big or small (better to be big!), they’re not going up as much as you hope they would over the foreseeable future." - Bill Gross

[donkeypong]

He's a clown. If you're looking for Internet sources to re-enforce your worldview, then a Google search or two should turn up some more credible sources.

[puppies]

That does not make me think he is any less of a crank.

[Tuck Fheman]

All systems tend to collapse in ten 8.6-year waves,

What is the author's basis for this statement? The only "system" I see mentioned is the Roman Empire, which lasted closer to 500 years than 86 years. Even if he arbitrarily picked a date when it's "decline" began, it's fairly simple to date that when it is one system. How much historical data does he have on other empires to come up with his 86 years? And measuring the U.S. decline with its "socialism", including even our greatest years in his measurement of the decline? Sorry, man, but that's just laughable. There's a lot of crap on the Internet along with some good stuff. Look for better stuff than this.

Perhaps some background on who he is will help : https://youtu.be/iJNEjq7I5Is

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

[lil_jay890]

Interesting article from cointelegraph on how we are weeks away from an epic collapse

http://cointelegraph.com/news/115204/the-shemitah-are-we-just-days-away-from-global-economic-destruction-op-ed-

[donkeypong]

All systems tend to collapse in ten 8.6-year waves,

What is the author's basis for this statement? The only "system" I see mentioned is the Roman Empire, which lasted closer to 500 years than 86 years. Even if he arbitrarily picked a date when it's "decline" began, it's fairly simple to date that when it is one system. How much historical data does he have on other empires to come up with his 86 years? And measuring the U.S. decline with its "socialism", including even our greatest years in his measurement of the decline? Sorry, man, but that's just laughable. There's a lot of crap on the Internet along with some good stuff. Look for better stuff than this.

[Ander]

lol

[Tuck Fheman]

Tuck Fheman fighting Ander with economies at stake!

I can dodge collapsing economies just like Neo! 



Yes Ander, that makes you Morpheus. 

[CLains]

Tuck Fheman fighting Ander with economies at stake!

[Tuck Fheman]

QUESTION: What will happen after 2015.75? Can you share anything?

ANSWER: All systems tend to collapse in ten 8.6-year waves, and the last 4.3 years are typically the worst. That is what we should see between 2015.75 and 2020.05. By comparison, the Roman Emperor Valerian I was the first emperor captured by the enemy. He was used as a footstool while wearing the purple robe of an emperor. When he died, he was stuffed like a trophy. That was in 260 AD. The next four years saw a complete collapse of everything, including religion. Romans prayed but nothing happened; this is when Christianity took off.

We are now approaching that same last 4.3-year leg in socialism from 1934. This is the peak in confidence in government and it will evaporate rapidly as it did in 260 AD. This is not the end of the world, but it will be a chance to push back to restore our liberty. It will get bad at first because government will fight hard going into 2017. By mid-2018, we should begin to see the trend with more clarity for once and all.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36790

@Ander , "let's discuss this on Twitter at #megloatingearly" 

#GotBitShares?