Let's talk - decentralized betting/prediction market! Possibility of a next FBA!

[puppies]

I think I picked the wrong thing to predict in my test prediction market.  Btc is down $50 since I posted it Wednesday.

[sports-owner]

I have created a second prediction market.  This tracks the winner of SuperBowl 50.  http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPORTS.SBLAFC If the AFC wins SuperBowl 50 then this asset will be worth 1BTS if the NFC wins SuperBowl 50 then this asset will be worth 0BTS.  Short and buy accordingly. 

Have Fun.

Shouldn't you close the market some days before the outcome in order to avoid manipulation? Does augur do this? If they do, it would be an interesting approach if we didn't, we could get preference from some because of that

Really excited about this. Hope everything goes well with these first prediction markets so we also get more exposure and hopefully someone to develop a service and interface for PMs

I don't think its really needed.  The odds will be adjusting the price up until the start of the game.  Anyone that has a losing bet still on the books after the the result is obvious, but before the market can be closed deserves what they get. 

[Akado]

I have created a second prediction market.  This tracks the winner of SuperBowl 50.  http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPORTS.SBLAFC If the AFC wins SuperBowl 50 then this asset will be worth 1BTS if the NFC wins SuperBowl 50 then this asset will be worth 0BTS.  Short and buy accordingly. 

Have Fun.

Shouldn't you close the market some days before the outcome in order to avoid manipulation? Does augur do this? If they do, it would be an interesting approach if we didn't, we could get preference from some because of that

Really excited about this. Hope everything goes well with these first prediction markets so we also get more exposure and hopefully someone to develop a service and interface for PMs

[sports-owner]

I have created a second prediction market.  This tracks the winner of SuperBowl 50.  http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPORTS.SBLAFC If the AFC wins SuperBowl 50 then this asset will be worth 1BTS if the NFC wins SuperBowl 50 then this asset will be worth 0BTS.  Short and buy accordingly. 

Have Fun.

[Xypher]

I noticed this message on Telegram from @Xypher .  I wanted to pass it along:

"Crypted Xypher
If you are working on prediction markets. PLEASE contact me as am working on a betting project and I can really use help there. I'd be glad to plugnin your product to what we are building"

Indeed, I'd like to confirm this.
I've been "hunting' for documentation on prediction markets for a while. Since one of our projects does interact with "probabilities" of a certain event happening a lot, I believe PM's can be built into the product in a very efficient fashion. If there are individuals working on this, I'd be glad to work with them to see possibilities of a collaboration.

Regards

[TravelsAsia]

I noticed this message on Telegram from @Xypher .  I wanted to pass it along:

"Crypted Xypher
If you are working on prediction markets. PLEASE contact me as am working on a betting project and I can really use help there. I'd be glad to plugnin your product to what we are building"

[Akado]

I think first we should define who has the final saying on the outcome of an event. Witnesses, committee? Or does that add a work overload they they shouldn't have? Maybe if we create a new type of "status" or account type, like Prediction Witnesses or Oracles.

All of them should report the same outcome, the correct one.

People will argue against that saying with Augur lots of people decide it (if I got it right) and it's more decentralized.
We can counter that argument that shareholders can vote in and out Oracles who provide the correct outcomes.

I think the problem here is the incentive. In Augur or any other system, Oracles should have an incentive to provide the correct outcome. With BitShares we don't have that atm I think.

Possible solutions:
- They earn bts like witnesses for their efforts
- They earn a % of all the winnings of a certain event.

Say there's a prediction market about US Presidentials. Person P wins and there's an X amount to be distributed to all who participated on the market. a % of that could be divided through all the Oracles maybe?

[mf-tzo]

I really like gambling so if you guys create different prediction market assets in order not to lose track it would be nice if @cryptofresh they could seperate these assets in a category of their own "market prediction assets" and these assets have a description of the bet

[xeroc]

If we're gonna go the FBA route why don't we just have the top five hodlers of the FBA responsible for providing the correct result.  If they cheat then no one will use the system and their revenue stream will end.

No need for an FBA since the feature is already available and can be used any time .. so to speak BTS is the FBA .. except that you could either have the committe, the witnesses or an arbitrary set of accounts 'resolve' the bet .. all of this is already available ..

[lil_jay890]

If we're gonna go the FBA route why don't we just have the top five hodlers of the FBA responsible for providing the correct result.  If they cheat then no one will use the system and their revenue stream will end.

That's along the lines I was thinking... but I would prefer every FBA or UIA holder to have a chance at settling the disputed outcome.  This would hopefully entice smaller people to buy into the system and would provide further decentralization.

Lets say I call my UIA IBET.  I would like all IBET holders to have a chance to settle disputed outcomes.  Can I give each IBET a unique identifier that could randomly be selected by an algorithm?

[puppies]

If we're gonna go the FBA route why don't we just have the top five hodlers of the FBA responsible for providing the correct result.  If they cheat then no one will use the system and their revenue stream will end.

[MrJeans]

The probability of obtaining a bet to settle could be based on your percentage holding of the asset.
This could be 'gamed' where a large stake holder colludes with others who dispute the bet.
Perhaps some formula that takes both stake holding and reputation into account.

UIA holders colluding with other players is definitely possible, but this wouldn't be in the best interest of the asset holder.  It would damage the platform and make the associated UIA worth less, therefore hurting the holder.

I do like the idea of taking reputation into account, but it may add a layer of unnecessary complexity.  If the better was ever taken advantage of in your situation, he could always give negative feedback to both the player and UIA holder.  I would like to see an algorithm that randomly assigns the disputed bet judgement to a random UIA.  This would make the system very difficult to game.

The user would need to somehow indicate that they are available to settle (unlocked wallet?). And have a time period within which to act otherwise the bet moves to someone else to settle.

I find this interesting because it would be really nice to have a game that builds on bitshares. Any game. Something to make Bitshares fun. I think Bitshares is too way ahead of its time to be useful to many people.

[puppies]

Interestingly I had some thoughts about almost exactly the same idea yeaterday. Lets have a talk someday this week

Edit: everything needed for binary prediction markets is already there

In the CLI only?

http://cryptofresh.com/a/REPGENSIXTEEN

GUI will not allow you to short.  Please fix that.  Can short in CLI

Code Select Expand


borrow_asset account-name 1000 REPGENSIXTEEN 1000 true

collateral has to be 1 for 1.  I am willing to update asset owner to account that is controlled by multi-sig trusted parties.

Hmm.  Can't short cause there are no feeds.  BM said there shouldn't be any feeds though.  Is this just a GUI error?  I'll try to short in the CLI when I get a chance.  Unless we can get the GUI working I don't think this will catch on at all though. 

[lil_jay890]

The probability of obtaining a bet to settle could be based on your percentage holding of the asset.
This could be 'gamed' where a large stake holder colludes with others who dispute the bet.
Perhaps some formula that takes both stake holding and reputation into account.

UIA holders colluding with other players is definitely possible, but this wouldn't be in the best interest of the asset holder.  It would damage the platform and make the associated UIA worth less, therefore hurting the holder.

I do like the idea of taking reputation into account, but it may add a layer of unnecessary complexity.  If the better was ever taken advantage of in your situation, he could always give negative feedback to both the player and UIA holder.  I would like to see an algorithm that randomly assigns the disputed bet judgement to a random UIA.  This would make the system very difficult to game.

[sports-owner]

http://cryptofresh.com/a/REPGENSIXTEEN

GUI will not allow you to short.  Please fix that.  Can short in CLI

Code Select Expand


borrow_asset account-name 1000 REPGENSIXTEEN 1000 true

collateral has to be 1 for 1.  I am willing to update asset owner to account that is controlled by multi-sig trusted parties.