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Offline Empirical1

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Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« on: January 09, 2014, 04:02:16 PM »

I think a lot of people incl. myself have written about the fact that the PTS price could be suffering because of the BTC to AGS fund for numerous reasons. (Of course it is a short term speed bump, if Bitshares proves successful - whether your PTS cost you $15/$25 will be pretty irrelevant.) However I believe this was an unintended consequence that can be easily addressed...

Double/Triple Dip PTS to AGS Days

It will decrease the issuance period slightly but if you do some provably random thing each morning that has a 1/7 chance of hitting, where if it 'hits' then that day will be a double/triple dip PTS to AGS day. (So instead of the usual 5000 AGS awarded that day there will be 10/15000 in the PTS to AGS fund)

Why: A random double/triple dip promotion specifically for the PTS to AGS fund will be a great marketing hook for Bitshares to create excitement, demand & daily interest for AGS over the relatively long issuance period. While at the same time encouraging holders of PTS not to sell and encourage new investors to dip their toe into PTS, while having very little negative impact on the BTC to AGS fund.

I also think people who are interested in Bitshares-AGS will be encouraged if they see Bitshares-Protoshares rising in value as opposed to dropping 35%+ in the first week of the new year.

Thoughts?



« Last Edit: January 09, 2014, 04:04:39 PM by Empirical1 »

Offline ripplexiaoshan

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2014, 06:30:15 PM »
It sounds great, but I am afraid market  doesn't want to see any change, otherwise the original plan could be recognized as thoughtless...  thus affecting the reputation of 3I
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Offline AdamBLevine

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2014, 06:59:42 PM »
I really like this idea but I agree with the above post, when you create these promotions you need to be able to see the future because you're stuck with the decisions you make or risk your reputation
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Offline toast

Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2014, 07:18:13 PM »
This doesn't change the incentive structure one bit.

If you set it up so that you know at the start of the day that it's a double reward day, then people will just rebalance their contribution back towards protoshares on those days.
If you set it up so that you don't know until after the day is done, people will just rebalance their contributions to adjust to the new average PTS payout since most investors are dollar cost averaging anyway.

The only thing this does is make it "fun" for people who can't do math, while hurting I3's credibility.
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Offline Empirical1

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2014, 07:57:26 PM »
Believe me you are preaching to the converted about hurting I3's credibility.

I posted this when they first considered Angelshares -

Quote
We now need centralised Angelshares? Have you decided on a later date for 'Godshares' yet...   :)

Mastercoin really got a terrible reputation after their centralised issuance. Now you're going to do it too & worse, you're doing it after you already went the route of PTS funding first! Now I've seen it all!  :)

To be constructive though, despite the hiccup at the start, people probably feel that Protoshares have been issued in a fairly decentralised way. You would probably be able to decrease the stated Bitshare issuance thereby increasing the value of Protoshares as long as you only made such a huge market moving move ONCE...


This doesn't change the incentive structure one bit.

If you set it up so that you know at the start of the day that it's a double reward day, then people will just rebalance their contribution back towards protoshares on those days.

Um no, I don't thinks so. Part of the problem is that there isn't enough new demand for the BTC to AGS fund. It's about what 50 BTC a day at the moment? Given the fall in PTS price, I think most people have reached the conclusion that some of those BTC's are coming from PTS holders selling PTC for BTC when the ratio is more lucrative than PTS-AGS.

By using some mechanism to skew the total AGS issuance slightly in favour of the PTS-AGS fund. You should end up stimulating demand for PTS and help the price to recover.

(If that doesn't make sense to you, think of the extreme scenario where there would only be a PTS-AGS fund, any new demand would have to purchase PTS with their BTC to get AGS thereby driving up the price of PTS during the issuance period, my solution just adjusts that balance slightly, to help PTS regain pre-announcement value and gives an interesting marketing angle but I do share peoples concerns about messing with the format.) 

Offline AdamBLevine

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2014, 08:39:39 PM »
This doesn't change the incentive structure one bit.

If you set it up so that you know at the start of the day that it's a double reward day, then people will just rebalance their contribution back towards protoshares on those days.
If you set it up so that you don't know until after the day is done, people will just rebalance their contributions to adjust to the new average PTS payout since most investors are dollar cost averaging anyway.

The only thing this does is make it "fun" for people who can't do math, while hurting I3's credibility.

The point is, Invictus makes public announcements of long term plans.  If you change your mind every once in a while thats fine, you're adapting.  If, as a rule, your long term predictions are almost always changed to improve them than it is not worthwhile to participate early because the deal could change post-buy-in for reasons you might think are arbitrary.   

It's very important to not change the rules, for better or worse once they are set as the rules.  The rules need to be set in stone or your credibility is chipped away until it shatters.
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Offline toast

Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2014, 09:06:47 PM »

Um no, I don't thinks so. Part of the problem is that there isn't enough new demand for the BTC to AGS fund. It's about what 50 BTC a day at the moment? Given the fall in PTS price, I think most people have reached the conclusion that some of those BTC's are coming from PTS holders selling PTC for BTC when the ratio is more lucrative than PTS-AGS.

By using some mechanism to skew the total AGS issuance slightly in favour of the PTS-AGS fund. You should end up stimulating demand for PTS and help the price to recover.

(If that doesn't make sense to you, think of the extreme scenario where there would only be a PTS-AGS fund, any new demand would have to purchase PTS with their BTC to get AGS thereby driving up the price of PTS during the issuance period, my solution just adjusts that balance slightly, to help PTS regain pre-announcement value and gives an interesting marketing angle but I do share peoples concerns about messing with the format.)

Disagree. Assume (like you are assuming) that an equilibrium will be reached quickly for AGS between PTS dollar value per day and BTC dollar value per day. By increasing the AGS to PTS payout by say, 1.25x on average, you are increasing the value of each PTS by 1.25x. People who are DCAing their investments into AGS they would dump 12.5% of their protoshares in favor of bitcoin, because they would get more AGS per dollar by rebalancing.

Also, if you plan to have fewer PTS days because you still want to have 2,000,000 total BTS awarded for PTS, then this is even more useless because you are only temporarily inflating the price of PTS against BTC until PTS days stop but BTC days continue.

But yes, this is all a tangential discussion because Adam has already covered the reason we shouldn't be doing this.
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Offline Empirical1

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2014, 10:22:42 PM »
Cool I appreciate the responses and I guess I agree that it's best not too mess with it at this stage.

Quote
If, as a rule, your long term predictions are almost always changed to improve them than it is not worthwhile to participate early

But the opposite has occured. On the date of the AGS/Bitshares announcement and up to the start of the issuance PTS was 0.027-0.031 now it's as low as 0.016-18. New announcements that wipe 45% off share prices in 9 days are usually not welcome, while a change that corrects that might not be as negative as you suggest.


Quote
Also, if you plan to have fewer PTS days because you still want to have 2,000,000 total BTS awarded for PTS, then this is even more useless because you are only temporarily inflating the price of PTS against BTC until PTS days stop but BTC days continue.

I wouldn't have fewer PTS days. I would have suggested decreasing the length of the issuance period.

Quote
Disagree. Assume (like you are assuming) that an equilibrium will be reached quickly for AGS between PTS dollar value per day and BTC dollar value per day. By increasing the AGS to PTS payout by say, 1.25x on average, you are increasing the value of each PTS by 1.25x. People who are DCAing their investments into AGS they would dump 12.5% of their protoshares in favor of bitcoin, because they would get more AGS per dollar by rebalancing.

Again, I think if you adjust the example to the ridiculous the point becomes apparent.

If you had 100 000 AGS per day for PTS and only 80 AGS per day for BTC, It would only take 1 BTC donated that day to make each AGS in that fund cost $10 but it would take a lot PTS to make each AGS $10.

So personally I still believe, the greater the discrepancy between the funds in favour of PTS, the more likely it is that new demand would find better value using BTC to buy PTS than for PTS holders to sell for BTC.


 


 

Offline phoenix

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2014, 12:01:56 AM »
This is an interesting idea, that I think highlights one of 3I's biggest weaknesses, it's very difficult for them to improve their social contract. Anytime they try to improve it a little bit, somebody will say that they're going back on their word. The more obvious the improvement is, like when they gave 50% of BTS to PTS holders instead of 10%, the fewer people will fight it. I wouldn't be surprised if somebody just watched all the small proposed changes that 3I couldn't do because they already defined their social contract, and then started their own company with all those improvements, and then argue that their social contract is better. Of course, this would only work if it actually was better in some way, which would benefit everyone that's a part of the PTS social contract.
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Offline betax

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2014, 05:18:57 AM »
Simply run a vote with current ags holders.
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Offline bytemaster

Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2014, 09:00:37 AM »
Simply run a vote with current ags holders.

We don't support voting around here as a means of decision making.  The minority AGS holders have rights too.
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Offline luckybit

Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2014, 06:31:40 PM »
I think a lot of people incl. myself have written about the fact that the PTS price could be suffering because of the BTC to AGS fund for numerous reasons. (Of course it is a short term speed bump, if Bitshares proves successful - whether your PTS cost you $15/$25 will be pretty irrelevant.) However I believe this was an unintended consequence that can be easily addressed...

Double/Triple Dip PTS to AGS Days

It will decrease the issuance period slightly but if you do some provably random thing each morning that has a 1/7 chance of hitting, where if it 'hits' then that day will be a double/triple dip PTS to AGS day. (So instead of the usual 5000 AGS awarded that day there will be 10/15000 in the PTS to AGS fund)

Why: A random double/triple dip promotion specifically for the PTS to AGS fund will be a great marketing hook for Bitshares to create excitement, demand & daily interest for AGS over the relatively long issuance period. While at the same time encouraging holders of PTS not to sell and encourage new investors to dip their toe into PTS, while having very little negative impact on the BTC to AGS fund.

I also think people who are interested in Bitshares-AGS will be encouraged if they see Bitshares-Protoshares rising in value as opposed to dropping 35%+ in the first week of the new year.

Thoughts?

This is actually a good idea.
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Offline pariah99

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Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2014, 04:13:08 AM »
I disagree: I think that the proportional distribution with PTS and BTC is enough to get people to donate to AGS, regardless of the price of protoshares, and it also provides donors with some nice benefits.

The way I look at it from a long term perspective, if you send bitcoin into AGS, you're more than likely getting a ridiculously good deal on shares of future 3I DACs for a (relatively) common currency.  If you're sending PTS to AGS, it's kind of like a bond in that you're giving up your liquidity for a larger piece of the social contract pie (at least, as long as the donation threshold remains under 5000 PTS.)

Besides, if you add too much complexity to the rollout, it's going to drive away AGS donations.

Edit: Also, if you allocate more AGS shares, then you're effectively making everybody else suffer an inflation tax that was not clearly spelled out in the original terms.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2014, 04:14:48 AM by pariah99 »

Offline fuzzy

Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2014, 04:33:16 AM »
To me this is a simple concept and one with a large body of psychological evidence showing random stimulus to be the most effective attempting to incentivize a particular behavior.  This is psych 101. (or at the very most 201) and has roots in the Behaviorist school of thought--which is arguably the most important contribution Psychology has ever given to the science of Marketing. 

These proclivities for psychological-banter aside, however, I agree with those on both sides in this thread--especially about the considerations for a loss of trust in the social contract.  However, there is one thought I have not yet read in this thread and seems to me could make the arguments moot--aren't AngelShares issuance currently behind that of ProtoShares in total number?  As such, it should be possible to use the strategy proposed for a number of purposes:
     1)  Bring issuance of PTS/AGS into parity over time such that PTS/AGS are each 2mil/2mil @ launch of BitShares.
     2)  To incentivize an increase in donations
     3)  Increase price of PTS (as it is only 1 of 2 ways to purchase AGS)
     4)  Keep Social Contract Intact
     
The only people who could possibly lose out would be those who originally invested in PTS/BTC in  AGS.  However, that could be mediated by awarding everyone who invested in AGS up to the date of this proposal's launch a x2 award for each day invested (not random). 

If this were done, it should keep people's trust in Invictus' ability to deliver in line with their social contract.  People who would grow upset by contract "volatility" over time would likely tend to have more patience when those changes made by Invictus always offer immediate rewards for those invested before changes are made.  But it would also potentially provide a 5th benefit:  onlooking investors in this sector would see Invictus as a company that goes above and beyond their contract obligations...and to me the chance that I will earn unknown rewards if/when changes are implemented in the future would tend to make me feel more comfortable investing in a company that is going to NEED at least a modicum of adaptability. 

Just my two cents.  Hope others will let me know where my logic is lacking...or where it makes sense.   
« Last Edit: January 20, 2014, 01:12:50 AM by fuznuts »
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Offline bytemaster

Re: Marketing Idea: Double Dip PTS to AGS days?
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2014, 04:36:31 AM »
People already complain about AGS being too complicated, but I agree with you that random issuance would force people to be more active in following the project.

Not going to change anything, but something to consider for the future.
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