Estimated Price of 1 Bitshare

[johncitizen]

my 5%:

I just received a newsletter from Ethereum that didn't contain the news that was promised. IPO still postponed until further notice.

Counterparty is doing a great job at its Alpha release. Happily coding away on unforeseen problems that come with the concept of a distributed exchange. I'm quite sure the III team is watching and learning. XCP meanwhile is selling at 5x the IPO price. Which is nice of course for the fools that burned their money away, but also tells us the community is still very much anticipating DEX' advent. While Counterparty is the first functional DEX its very far from a finished product.

IDK where MSC and NXT are at at the moment but I think that should III manage to release a coherent, functional and user friendly DEX within the next 2-3 months or so you need not worry on the ROI of your Angelshares. Funding crypto IPO's is a very high risk business, and the market tends to reward bravery rather generously (NXT, MSC, XCP all made a minimum 500% ROI directly after the IPO).

Considering that all DEX related cryptos went through the Mt. Gox crash without a glimpse I don't really see where this could go wrong other than Bytemaster ODing on Twinkies and Mountain Dew.

IMO, PTS/AGS has provided us with some price discovery for bitshares or at least a better idea of where it will begin trading.  The offerings you mention didn't really have any.  MSC and XCP are trading well below where it opened.  People were buying XCP for .01 on the first day and now you can pay around .005.  Same with MSC and the price is still falling.

I follow NXT closely, the devs are quite on the forums but they are meeting all their investors expectations. I see a positive future for them at the current rate and can see a niche market for the technology. I cant see them as a threat. None of the others gain particular appeal from my observations but I like to keep my bases covered.

From an analytical view I do believe invictus have the ability to succeed. *Our largest obstacle may become legal/regulatory.

As for many of the others... I wish crypto the best, but I know some projects will possibly decay. This is a sad prospect but you have it or you don't.

[Mrrr]

I don't expect BTS to start trading for 0.045 (average BTC/AGS*5) but I do expect it, if BTS is properly released, to trade above 0.009 for the simple reason that people who are funding the IPO now are taking a sigificantly higher risk than people who will buy afterwards. For a change III has something more to vouch for it than a bitcointalk forum post so that negates the risk factor significantly, but I can't image an initial price below IPO.

Since its a small step from 0.009 to 0.016 I'll put my money where my mouth is and use BTC to buy more AGS, and then use more BTC to buy more PTS since they are, according to my own logic, currently undervalued.

[JakeThePanda]

my 5%:

I just received a newsletter from Ethereum that didn't contain the news that was promised. IPO still postponed until further notice.

Counterparty is doing a great job at its Alpha release. Happily coding away on unforeseen problems that come with the concept of a distributed exchange. I'm quite sure the III team is watching and learning. XCP meanwhile is selling at 5x the IPO price. Which is nice of course for the fools that burned their money away, but also tells us the community is still very much anticipating DEX' advent. While Counterparty is the first functional DEX its very far from a finished product.

IDK where MSC and NXT are at at the moment but I think that should III manage to release a coherent, functional and user friendly DEX within the next 2-3 months or so you need not worry on the ROI of your Angelshares. Funding crypto IPO's is a very high risk business, and the market tends to reward bravery rather generously (NXT, MSC, XCP all made a minimum 500% ROI directly after the IPO).

Considering that all DEX related cryptos went through the Mt. Gox crash without a glimpse I don't really see where this could go wrong other than Bytemaster ODing on Twinkies and Mountain Dew.

IMO, PTS/AGS has provided us with some price discovery for bitshares or at least a better idea of where it will begin trading.  The offerings you mention didn't really have any.  MSC and XCP are trading well below where it opened.  People were buying XCP for .01 on the first day and now you can pay around .005.  Same with MSC and the price is still falling.

[toast]

If it's under $5 I'm shorting bitUSD with 100% of my BTS

[Mrrr]

my 5%:

I just received a newsletter from Ethereum that didn't contain the news that was promised. IPO still postponed until further notice.

Counterparty is doing a great job at its Alpha release. Happily coding away on unforeseen problems that come with the concept of a distributed exchange. I'm quite sure the III team is watching and learning. XCP meanwhile is selling at 5x the IPO price. Which is nice of course for the fools that burned their money away, but also tells us the community is still very much anticipating DEX' advent. While Counterparty is the first functional DEX its very far from a finished product.

IDK where MSC and NXT are at at the moment but I think that should III manage to release a coherent, functional and user friendly DEX within the next 2-3 months or so you need not worry on the ROI of your Angelshares. Funding crypto IPO's is a very high risk business, and the market tends to reward bravery rather generously (NXT, MSC, XCP all made a minimum 500% ROI directly after the IPO).

Considering that all DEX related cryptos went through the Mt. Gox crash without a glimpse I don't really see where this could go wrong other than Bytemaster ODing on Twinkies and Mountain Dew.

[JakeThePanda]

$5-10 first few days, no investor will sell at negative ROI

I don't see it like that.  BitsharesX is the first dividend of owning PTS/AGS with the hope of many more to come.  There will definitely be some sellers at launch looking to fund some of their initial investment in PTS/AGS.  With any new offering, there are always buyers looking to flip it at the open. Bitshares isn't any different.

[Brent.Allsop]

What are people paying for them now?  I did a quick back of the napkin calculation and it seems people are getting the right to one Bitshare for about $1, using bitcoin to bid on Angel shares on an average day.  But I probably am missing something?

If that's true, I'd say somewhere between $1 and $5.  It will take a while to get the kinks worked out of the system, and build trust in the technology, all of which just takes time.  Once that is achieved, I think Bitshares could get on board with the "Law of the Crypto Coin" described here:

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2

I think it would be interesting to get all the arguments, for the different prices being predicted, concisely stated in camps, and then see how many people are in which camp, and track how this changes over time.

[toast]

$5-10 first few days, no investor will sell at negative ROI

[JakeThePanda]

It will open at about $5 or .007 BTC.

[sfinder]

15-20$ after launch and will increase to 50-60 in 3 months.  12 months later ,we will see 100$ per share

What do you think the price of a single Bitshare will be once it is launched?
How did you reach this conclusion?

After 4 pages this thread has received exactly two answers to the initial question.
Come on guys, its only a couple of weeks til the launch of Bitshare XT. Let's start a proper prediction (market):

johncitizen: 15 $
Giga: 200 $
and now me: 5 $

[Markus]

What do you think the price of a single Bitshare will be once it is launched?
How did you reach this conclusion?

After 4 pages this thread has received exactly two answers to the initial question.
Come on guys, its only a couple of weeks til the launch of Bitshare XT. Let's start a proper prediction (market):

johncitizen: 15 $
Giga: 200 $
and now me: 5 $

[jae208]

My hope and expectation is for each Bitshare to be worth about $200 on launch

You're going to be disappointed.  Let's think about this.  If they will be worth that much, than the price of PTS would be through the roof right now.  Look at where PTS is trading.  It will be worth less.

Sometimes weird stuff happens.

For example yesterday you could burn 1 BTC to have 1 000 XCP. Today trades happen at 100 XCP @ 1BTC, just because the burn period is over.

I also think that 200$ is too optimistic, but I don't think that PTS price is a good indicator.  Who knows what might happen once people realize that Bitshares supply is fixed.

I was just thinking that $1,000 was a bit too 'pessimistic'
Well not at launch obviously
The supply of Bitshares is only going to be a fraction of the Bitcoin supply AND it
will have much more advanced features too!

[jae208]

My hope and expectation is for each Bitshare to be worth about $200 on launch

You're going to be disappointed.  Let's think about this.  If they will be worth that much, than the price of PTS would be through the roof right now.  Look at where PTS is trading.  It will be worth less.

It may not be worth $200 on launch but I think that may be possible a year or two from now. The thing is that the mainstream has only just found out about Bitcoin and so I think it'll be a while before people find out about Bitshares. Once people find out about Bitshares and what it will do you will see the price go through the roof.

[pgbit]

My hope and expectation is for each Bitshare to be worth about $200 on launch

It's hard to judge the opening value. I've looked at the current price of Mastercoin and the total coin amount, from that you might easily estimate an approx price if the two were equivalent - but clearly they are not. My understanding is that Bitshares will be released with the immediate added DAC functions; how much people are aware of and appreciate the added benefits will add to the price. The timing of announcements about future DACs from III will be worth paying attention to, as if they announce more of these prior to Bitshares X release this might likely affect Bitshares PTS, with a flurry of accumulation likely to occur in the coming weeks. Its quite a smart system, as this could very positively influence the opening Bitshares X value.

[santaclause102]

I think Bitshares (and counterparty) have such tremendous potential and can get way bigger in market cap than bitcoin IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED. If Bitshares works you need A LOT OF COLLATERAL (Bitshares)...