Author Topic: Idea/Patent Markets  (Read 1184 times)

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Offline Markus

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clout

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Is it far-fetched to think that there should be idea markets instead of patents, whereby people get paid for the novelty and significance of their ideas? If I want to sell an idea, I will have an ipo for the stock in that idea, if the idea is innovative and feasible then people will be willing to pay for the "idea" as the price of the idea will appreciate as it comes into fruition. Otherwise no one will be willing to pay for the idea or I will only get a very cheap price on the idea.

For example if I created the idea market for robotic servants and the technology is nowhere close to allowing for the idea to manifest anytime soon. No one will buy except at a very low price. I could hold onto the "stock" but conceivably there would be a fee for holding it, so I would inevitably sell it to someone who was more willing to pay the fee. This fee would serve to impede individuals that would like to capitalize on innovation for which they have made no contributions toward. So if I am merely speculating that robot servants will be big in 20 years but no one is really working on the technology then I would be penalized for executing the ipo of that stock.

On the other end of the spectrum, if I knew that I was close to releasing the first robotic servants then I would have an ipo and as I released more and more relevant information about the technology and people started to use these robots in their homes the price of the idea would increase. Even if competitors enter the market after learning some of techniques for producing these robots they would only help expand the industry and thereby increase the price of the idea. In this way the person that first issues the stock as well as early stakeholders would get a piece of the revenue from a particular industry.

Essentially I could set up the prediction market to be the revenue/profit of an industry. In this instance I would predict that the revenue/profit of the industry is whatever I estimate as my revenue/profit in the coming year from release of these robots. I'd sell a minority stake in the stock as an ipo and then as the more people entered the industry and it became bigger the price of the stock would go up.

People that bought the stock would essentially be investing in the industry itself as the individuals with the largest stakes would most likely be those that are actively working on producing for that industry as they would have the most relevant information about the future revenue and profit.

I don't know if this ridiculous to suggest but I just think that with 7 billion people in the world there could be enough participation in prediction markets to make these "patent" markets liquid.