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Offline Troglodactyl

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BitShares Lotto
« on: March 16, 2014, 10:23:47 PM »

[Regarding BitShares Bingo vs BitShares Lotto]

They are separate dacs, lotto is simpler and will come first

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For ease of implementation and competition, I'm guessing BitShares Lotto is basically decentralized satoshidice except the only house edge is the transaction fees?

Offline bytemaster

Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2014, 03:03:41 AM »
[Regarding BitShares Bingo vs BitShares Lotto]

They are separate dacs, lotto is simpler and will come first

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For ease of implementation and competition, I'm guessing BitShares Lotto is basically decentralized satoshidice except the only house edge is the transaction fees?

Essentially correct.
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Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline Empirical1

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2014, 05:39:31 PM »
Wow I'm so excited about this DAC. It's going to be huge!

The idea of a lottery DAC struck me last night and I'm glad to see you guys have already come up with it!

I would be very interested in hearing more about how you guys are going to approach it! These are thoughts I came up with myself regarding it...

____________________________________

Lotteries are a worldwide business that generate $50 Billion+ in revenue every year!

A Bitshares lottery DAC could be at least 2x as profitable for users than any existing lotteries!

Why? There is so much wastage! Most Lotteries, including Euromillions for example, use a 50-50 approach - They promise to pay out at least 50% of receipts as prizes. (50% is spent on vendors, government's cut, administration, company profits and charity) A Lottery DAC could eliminate nearly all of that! 

Yes a massive industry where we could eliminate nearly all the costs with a fairly simple DAC. 

(If the community so chooses there could still be a charitable element to the lottery DAC that pays out a certain % to charities, however which charities could be decided on by some form of voting system.)

That's not even the most exciting part...

We may even be able to go one step further and have a lottery that doesn't cost you anything

And even more exciting that that....

Your Bitshares Lotto investment may increase in value even if you never win!

How is this possible?

Bitcoin currently experiences circa 10% inflation, which takes the form of coins being issued to miners via POW.
Of course POS eliminates the need for nearly all of that. However despite the rate of inflation Bitcoin is still expected to increase in value for a long period as rate of adoption, if crypto-currency continues to expand, will far outpace the inflation.

Therefore...

You could create a DAC with 10% inflation which instead of being paid to miners would be paid back to users in the form of lottery prizes.

If we use Bitcoin as an example, with it's current $8 Billion Cap as an example. That would mean there would be $800 Million that could be awarded as lottery prizes to users over the course of a year.  $15 million in prizes every week!
(Simple example - though obviously the prize structure would be more complicated - If there was a $10 million grand prize and 1000 $5000 prizes every week then someone with 12 Bitcoins (Admittedly a lot) would have a 20 000-1 shot of winning $10 million over the course of the year & a 20-1 shot of winning $5000.)

There could be 4 Billion initial lottery coins distributed 50/50 between PTS & AGS shareholders.
The Lotto DAC would experience 10% inflation paid out in prizes.  Even at a modest $10 000 000 CAP there would still be $20 000 in prizes every week

Advantages...

1. Use a mathematically provably fair system to select winners.
2. Eliminate $Billions in costs that currently go to vendors, governments and lottery companies.
3. Give charitable contributions voted on by users not by others.
4. Simply owning Lottery-Shares makes you eligible.
5. The 10% inflation model used to create prizes means your lottery shares could easily still go up A LOT in value long term if the DAC is popular even if you never win.


« Last Edit: March 21, 2014, 05:41:40 PM by Empirical1 »

bitbro

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2014, 07:40:25 PM »
Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?




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Offline bytemaster

Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2014, 11:03:06 PM »
Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?

Solving this problem with a DAC would be nice, but your solution (moderators, voting, ratings) are not a viable approach.  Find an alternative way of solving these problems. 
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline Empirical1

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2014, 04:35:27 AM »
Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?

Solving this problem with a DAC would be nice, but your solution (moderators, voting, ratings) are not a viable approach.  Find an alternative way of solving these problems.

Can't you make a sports betting DAC that doesn't require moderators/voting/ratings, by doing it a similar way to prediction markets?

You just say we are using a scale of 0-100, with intervals of 1, each 1 represents 1%.

A market price of 0 means there's 0% chance of the event happening.
(Ie. Eagles lost) A value of close to 100 means the event is certain to happen or has already happened.

Someone creates the Bet 'Superbowl final 2014, Eagles to win'

He thinks there's greater than 60% chance Eagles will win so he takes a long position at 60. Someone else thinks it's less likely so they go short at 60 and a 'trade' occurs. Then the price moves from there, depending on the market. With 5 minutes to go, the Eagles up by 8, people may only be willing to go short at 93. (I.e the person going short at a market price of 93, thinks there's a greater than 7% chance Eagles will lose.) After the game if Eagles win there should be no-one willing to go short as everyone would take the other side of the trade.

If the price is greater than 90 or lower than 10 and no new trades have been made for a set period 1 day? then the event will be considered over by the system and the trades will pay out. (Above 90 people long the event would get paid out below 10 people shorting that event would get paid out.)

The person going long at 60 would have to post 60x the size of his 'interval bet' in case the team lost.
So he might go long 1$ per % so if they win he would make $40, if they lose he would lose $60.

There would be a small fee paid to shareholders but much cheaper than betting services.

Would something like that work?

« Last Edit: March 22, 2014, 04:38:15 AM by Empirical1 »

Offline jwiz168

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2014, 05:29:23 AM »
Actually there is another variation of Sports Betting number game. The mechanic is so simple. At the end of each NBA game or any other score oriented sports, it will take the ones digit of final score for both winner and loser. Let say the final score was 105-97. the winning number combination would be 5 - 7 in that particular order and game. In our country it is what we call "ending" .

bitbro

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2014, 12:43:19 PM »

Actually there is another variation of Sports Betting number game. The mechanic is so simple. At the end of each NBA game or any other score oriented sports, it will take the ones digit of final score for both winner and loser. Let say the final score was 105-97. the winning number combination would be 5 - 7 in that particular order and game. In our country it is what we call "ending" .

True, but I think there's a huge market for betting on winners/losers.  Would definitely like to solve this.


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bitbro

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2014, 12:46:32 PM »

Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?

Solving this problem with a DAC would be nice, but your solution (moderators, voting, ratings) are not a viable approach.  Find an alternative way of solving these problems.

Can't you make a sports betting DAC that doesn't require moderators/voting/ratings, by doing it a similar way to prediction markets?

You just say we are using a scale of 0-100, with intervals of 1, each 1 represents 1%.

A market price of 0 means there's 0% chance of the event happening.
(Ie. Eagles lost) A value of close to 100 means the event is certain to happen or has already happened.

Someone creates the Bet 'Superbowl final 2014, Eagles to win'

He thinks there's greater than 60% chance Eagles will win so he takes a long position at 60. Someone else thinks it's less likely so they go short at 60 and a 'trade' occurs. Then the price moves from there, depending on the market. With 5 minutes to go, the Eagles up by 8, people may only be willing to go short at 93. (I.e the person going short at a market price of 93, thinks there's a greater than 7% chance Eagles will lose.) After the game if Eagles win there should be no-one willing to go short as everyone would take the other side of the trade.

If the price is greater than 90 or lower than 10 and no new trades have been made for a set period 1 day? then the event will be considered over by the system and the trades will pay out. (Above 90 people long the event would get paid out below 10 people shorting that event would get paid out.)

The person going long at 60 would have to post 60x the size of his 'interval bet' in case the team lost.
So he might go long 1$ per % so if they win he would make $40, if they lose he would lose $60.

There would be a small fee paid to shareholders but much cheaper than betting services.

Would something like that work?

Love it.  Gonna need to think on it a bit.  Maybe BM has input


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Offline CWEvans

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2014, 02:17:45 PM »
Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?

Solving this problem with a DAC would be nice, but your solution (moderators, voting, ratings) are not a viable approach.  Find an alternative way of solving these problems.

Use a prediction market to set the opening line and then have the system move the line dynamically, so that it evenly divides the bets?

Offline HackFisher

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2014, 02:45:27 PM »
Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?




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The gameplay rule is interesting which is very similar to a poker game I played with my friends, we call it "Brag".

But there are two problems need confirm, first, how to represent real world Future Events (like that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3) in a DAC, for me, I would like to use something technically like random_hash(next_x_ btc_block_info) to replace it as Future Event.

Second, like the game "Brag", I prefer the next player should eight be the moderator to accept A's bet and join A to increase winnings, or deny A's bet by raising counter party, loop and over and over , waiting for the result of Future Event.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2014, 02:49:25 PM by HackFisher »
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline bytemaster

Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2014, 06:05:59 PM »
I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

bitbro

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Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2014, 06:40:35 PM »

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

BM yes, man.  Here we go BitShares Vegas!


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Offline bytemaster

Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2014, 06:59:34 PM »

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

BM yes, man.  Here we go BitShares Vegas!
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Now all we need is a turing complete scripting language to place arbitrary bets referencing multiple feeds.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline luckybit

Re: BitShares Lotto
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2014, 05:12:56 AM »

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

BM yes, man.  Here we go BitShares Vegas!
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Now all we need is a turing complete scripting language to place arbitrary bets referencing multiple feeds.

Python.
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