Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me? Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators. Moderators have reputation and ratings. Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.
Example. Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more. 100 moderators approve the bet. Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3. When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.
Solving this problem with a DAC would be nice, but your solution (moderators, voting, ratings) are not a viable approach. Find an alternative way of solving these problems.
Can't you make a sports betting DAC that doesn't require moderators/voting/ratings, by doing it a similar way to prediction markets?
You just say we are using a scale of 0-100, with intervals of 1, each 1 represents 1%.
A market price of 0 means there's 0% chance of the event happening.
(Ie. Eagles lost) A value of close to 100 means the event is certain to happen or has already happened.
Someone creates the Bet 'Superbowl final 2014, Eagles to win'
He thinks there's greater than 60% chance Eagles will win so he takes a long position at 60. Someone else thinks it's less likely so they go short at 60 and a 'trade' occurs. Then the price moves from there, depending on the market. With 5 minutes to go, the Eagles up by 8, people may only be willing to go short at 93. (I.e the person going short at a market price of 93, thinks there's a greater than 7% chance Eagles will lose.) After the game if Eagles win there should be no-one willing to go short as everyone would take the other side of the trade.
If the price is greater than 90 or lower than 10 and no new trades have been made for a set period 1 day? then the event will be considered over by the system and the trades will pay out. (Above 90 people long the event would get paid out below 10 people shorting that event would get paid out.)
The person going long at 60 would have to post 60x the size of his 'interval bet' in case the team lost.
So he might go long 1$ per % so if they win he would make $40, if they lose he would lose $60.
There would be a small fee paid to shareholders but much cheaper than betting services.
Would something like that work?