Author Topic: Critical Mass or Fratricide?  (Read 6160 times)

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Offline luckybit

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Over time I think you would have to go from the "game titles" model to a more album type model. Look at the effort it takes to sell a music album or even a best selling book.

Since these are the first DACs in my opinion it's important to get the majority of them released over the summer so we have a way to expand the community. As new DACs get released there will need to be a marketing campaign.

If you look at music albums for example there is a lead single (Bitshares XT), and then every few weeks you get another single until at some point 3-4 singles are out there and then the entire album is released (Bitshares X). I suggest going with that model.

By the fall we want to have everything released. Also if you release in the summer you give people time to actually learn about and play with the technology. It's a good time to market it in the summer so that by fall you've got the line up in place and by winter you're preparing for the 2015 lineup.
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Offline luckybit

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There's been too many technical questions lately, I'm throwing a few management questions out there:

Is there a limit to how many DACs should be launched in one day?  one week?  one month?

As an industry, we've got a lot in the pipe and Murphy's Law dictates that all developers could finish on the same day!  (Especially since they all get the same 90%-done head start from using the same toolkit.)

As a thought experiment, if we (as an independent community of developers) did have a whole batch ready to go at about the same time, which would be better?

1.  Hold them to launch all at the same time to generate a blazing mile-high spike of buzz?

2.  Launch them serially, separated by days, weeks, months to give each one chance to be flavor of the day/week/month?

Should their snapshots be done all at the same time or spaced out as well?

What's the best roll-out strategy?

Launch them independently. It's not really important that they launch at once.

Think of it as game titles, as long as you show you can launch that first title then you can use the success of that to launch the rest. It's also good to give people 2 weeks warning so they can generally save their money or prepare.

So I would say give each launch about 2 weeks to itself. If you can launch more than one chain in the same week then do it but it's not something to plan for.
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Offline Troglodactyl

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I would suggest releasing at most one a week, and preferably timing the launches early weekend.  It could be interesting to add a launch party segment to the end of the Saturday morning Beyond Bitcoin show on weeks that have a launch, and launch right then.  Thoughts fuz?

Offline CLains

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liondani with another creative leap, voting for the releases! I like it!

However, what I am most afraid of, when making strategies with time frames like 8 weeks etc. is that Bitcoin might explode too quickly, as the market is moving the quicklier the more it matters. Personally I believe we are going down to 580 in the next few days and then up to 1400++ in 6-9 weeks, which of course, would be perfect for Bitshares; in that time NXT can grow to rival Litecoin as well, creating some major Bitcoin 2.0 buzz ;) hope, hope, hope+5% +5% +5%

I've just typed this out and after reading through it I've decided that I disagree with myself! ???

The eternal struggle!  :D

Offline unimercio

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There's been too many technical questions lately, I'm throwing a few management questions out there:

Is there a limit to how many DACs should be launched in one day?  one week?  one month?

As an industry, we've got a lot in the pipe and Murphy's Law dictates that all developers could finish on the same day!  (Especially since they all get the same 90%-done head start from using the same toolkit.)

As a thought experiment, if we (as an independent community of developers) did have a whole batch ready to go at about the same time, which would be better?

1.  Hold them to launch all at the same time to generate a blazing mile-high spike of buzz?

2.  Launch them serially, separated by days, weeks, months to give each one chance to be flavor of the day/week/month?

Should their snapshots be done all at the same time or spaced out as well?

What's the best roll-out strategy?

IMHO, 1 would be a train wreck, 2 maybe but too arbitrary. Better:

3.  Launch each only once acceptance tested by the community and critical staff and procedures are online and prepared to handle the workload on all cylinders.
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Offline fuzzy

variable*  time between dacs and pool voting  for the order...

*the time could be depended  from the quantity of votes...
  example: the next dac (with the most votes) will come out every 8 weeks OR when it gets at least x** votes...(if it gets x votes after 2 weeks it will released immediately then)


** x must be a "equilibrium" number... (it could be for example y times the average "Most Online Today visitors" for the last 8 weeks on bitsharestalk.org...

Really like this, and would allow the market to evaluate and show Invictus which DACs are the most anticipated.  At the very least, that data would be very valuable moving forward.

It would also help us answer the questins clains is bringing forward.
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Offline jwiz168

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From the crypto market's point of view, make each DAC a seasonal release . The price of BTC today is only 50% of its highest value . That is an indication the more we approach mid November, IMO, the higher market index would be reached. Let each DAC matures for its role . And when it is stable enough to stand on its own feet, then make another DAC launch. But it should not be later than  December 25 , where all people are in shopping malls for spending spree (investors divest their shares). Rest assured after that , BTC will again plunge to lower value.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2014, 11:25:37 pm by jwiz168 »

Offline donkeypong

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I think 1-3 weeks is enough for the release of each DAC. We need to move from  "I3 promised and still didn't deliver" to "I3 is releasing every week a new DAC".

As long as the main shareholders of the DACs do not massively dump their shares irrespective of a bull or bear market and if we see these DACs as long term stable, valuable investments I am confident that all  DACs will go to the moon!!

I agree on 1-3 weeks. If DACs are ready, then it is not fair to their developers to wait longer than that.

Offline mf-tzo

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I think 1-3 weeks is enough for the release of each DAC. We need to move from  "I3 promised and still didn't deliver" to "I3 is releasing every week a new DAC".

As long as the main shareholders of the DACs do not massively dump their shares irrespective of a bull or bear market and if we see these DACs as long term stable, valuable investments I am confident that all  DACs will go to the moon!!

Offline hadrian

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It could be overwhelming and confusing if too many DACs come at once. If a couple of successful DACs are released first, it would create enough buzz to draw people in. These people would then become familiar with Bitshares and may then be ready to jump in immediately when a new DAC arrives. They may be even more compelled to do so if they feel like they're 'getting in on the ground floor' with something brand new.
This could be something to bear in mind if there are DACs which would be best off with a very rapid adoption rate.

I've just typed this out and after reading through it I've decided that I disagree with myself! ???
I'm gonna post it anyway...
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Offline liondani

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variable*  time between dacs and pool voting  for the order...

*the time could be depended  from the quantity of votes...
  example: the next dac (with the most votes) will come out every 8 weeks OR when it gets at least x** votes...(if it gets x votes after 2 weeks it will released immediately then)


** x must be a "equilibrium" number... (it could be for example y times the average "Most Online Today visitors" for the last 8 weeks on bitsharestalk.org...
« Last Edit: June 06, 2014, 07:54:15 pm by liondani »

Offline Stan

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Well, people should not be surprised if there is at least one such snapshot coinciding with the end of AGS donations ...if not sooner.  It just makes too much sense from a savvy marketing promotion point of view.

NOTE:  This is not a promise, I am merely issuing the airdrop equivalent of a tornado watch.   :)

Quote
"A watch is issued when conditions are favorable, for example, either for a severe thunderstorm or tornadoes."

-- Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather.com
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract of any kind.   These are merely my opinions which I reserve the right to change at any time.

Offline donkeypong

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Since April ,pts/btc fell from 0.016 to 0.006,pts has been discarded by miners gradually.If the dac's release could raise the price of pts in some way,bounties like "1000pts" maybe more bountiful,and more developers will work with 3i.

Just a guess, but don't you think the upcoming buzz for the DACs, combined with the end of the AGS donation period, combined with the move of PTS to a DPOS PTS2 will create just a LITTLE bit of upward pressure on the PTS price? I'll venture a guess that PTS value it will rise anywhere from 30% to "through the roof"...

Offline bulabu

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Since April ,pts/btc fell from 0.016 to 0.006,pts has been discarded by miners gradually.If the dac's release could raise the price of pts in some way,bounties like "1000pts" maybe more bountiful,and more developers will work with 3i.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2014, 06:09:34 pm by bulabu »

Offline CLains

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To release at the right time is really an art! Some considerations,

1. Hype in the crypto markets; primarily, hype surrounding Bitcoin and the hype surrounding Bitcoin 2.0 products like NXT, CounterParty, etc. For instance, atm NXT is all the rage, and a product competing with it - if sufficiently impressive looking -  might steal some of that 100 million market cap.

1.1. Topical Type hype, such as privacy, nationcoins, etc. For instance, we had a stretch were DARK, X11, Anoncoin, etcetc. were all the rage, and a stretch were Aurora, Mazacoin, Maltacoin, Electronic Goulden, and all the rest of the nation coins were trending.

1.2. Event-hype over events like elections, as fuznuts mentions can be exploited for Voting DACs, or the Olympics, that Dogecoin exploited to do the marketing stunt, and Football VM coming up will be exploited in betting/prediction markets, etc..

2. Space them out (but not too far apart!)  AND list them in a giant visual plan AND fulfill each expectation, that is how to build investor confidence and trust that you know what you are doing. In addition, this will create a fun game for the speculators who love the kind of dynamic market it will create.

3. As davidpbrown and others point out, release the products you are most comfortable with first, as the hype for the latter products will depend on the successes and the attention created by the previous products. If the first and second releases fail to gather attention, it will be more difficult to market the third, and so on.

BTW, there is no need to release the exact release date of the DAC when releasing the date of the snapshot. The snapshots should be announced fairly soon in my opinion, because otherwise we are not free to launch when it is optimal to do so, on command. (imagine having Auroracoin 2.0 ready to go just when Auroracoin was was going crazy, versus having it two weeks later - it is all the difference in the world.)

When doing snapshots, I think the main consideration is the influx of money into BTC, and secondarily into NXT. If we can pull PTS into a solid uptrend, there will be a lot of eyes on Bitshares.org that feeds back into the system. If PTS merely doubles, it outweighs any amount of AGS donations in the remaining 40 days.

Put another way, if PTS merely doubles we could easily spend 2 million dollars on whatever is needed, and then it would surely double again, at which point we reach escape velocity.

The most important consideration of all is to produce hype on command IF BTC approaches new all time high, or NXT keeps climbing to challenge LTC. As every surfer knows, when the big waves are coming you need to paddle like a crazy person on command at just the right time.

Notice that a lot of these points are in conflict, and we need artful judgement to find the optimal tradeoffs in each case.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2014, 11:12:35 am by CLains »