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Offline toast

When will BTSX surpass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« on: August 22, 2014, 09:29:09 PM »

Lots of fanboys predicting August and September. Ready to put your money where your mouth is?
Given how accurately this predicted BTSX+BitAsset launch, let's try again:

BTSX goes above Litecoin before...
Sept 1st:     https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitsharesx-crosses-litecoin-market-cap-before-sept-1st/
Sept 14th:   https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitsharesx-crosses-litecoin-market-cap-before-sept-14th/
Oct 1st :      https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitsharesx-crosses-litecoin-market-cap-before-oct-1st/
« Last Edit: August 23, 2014, 09:30:42 PM by vikram »
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Offline bobmaloney

Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2014, 09:42:20 PM »
What is this "mBTC" stuff?
"The crows seemed to be calling his name, thought Caw."
- Jack Handey (SNL)

38PTSWarrior

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2014, 09:50:25 PM »
Did you put a little BTC inside toast? I also don't know bobmaloney, I just clicked through and am "in". Oh yeah!

38PTSWarrior

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2014, 09:52:26 PM »
Oh, I don't have any BTC, sorry,

Offline testz

Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2014, 09:56:38 PM »
Oh, I don't have any BTC, sorry,

Same  :( Maybe they can accept at least PTS?  :)

Offline Fairlay

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2014, 10:44:14 PM »
Thanks for this event suggestions.

If anyone has question about how it is working/ the user interface - we are here to help.

Basically it is a p2p betting market (prediction market) where people can bet against each other. As soon as some liquidity comes in to the events the trading orders turn into a decent prediction of the future.

Have a look at some graphs created on fairlay so far: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/07/some-graphs-our-prediction-market-created-so-far/

Offline tonyk

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2014, 12:13:28 AM »
BTC?

You people are truly amazing. Why do you think anybody here keeps BTC when BTSX is out there?
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline MktDirector

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2014, 12:33:51 AM »
This is hillarious! All we need now is Vegas to start in on the gambling.  B

Offline lucky331

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2014, 12:38:36 AM »
getting the bookies in ain't a bad idea actually.  it will give bitshares and crypto-currencies more exposure actually.  and i wouldn't mind if they get their action in as investments in crypto. 

Offline jae208

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2014, 04:59:05 AM »
Brian should make a bet and tell us what he thinks. Just out of curiosity.
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Offline jae208

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2014, 12:58:55 PM »
Not sure if I'm reading this correctly but is this prediction market saying that BTSX will surpass Litecoin before Sept 1st?
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Offline toast

Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2014, 01:17:07 PM »
These are three separate yes/no markets for people to bet on when it will happen. The markets dont mean anything until enough people bet.

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Do not use this post as information for making any important decisions. The only agreements I ever make are informal and non-binding. Take the same precautions as when dealing with a compromised account, scammer, sockpuppet, etc.

Offline jae208

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2014, 01:31:35 PM »
 +5%

Any idea what would be considered "enough" people? Also, based on current numbers more people have bet on September 1st right?
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Offline Fairlay

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Re: When will BTSX surprass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2014, 04:26:07 PM »
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bitshares-x/

Here you find percentages how likely things are (they are always an upper bound - this is why they sum up to >100) but consider - the ones with a (*) are predictions that are right now not backed by someone.

This means until now people are only willing to bet against bitshares.

Lets take the ≈10% for bitshares passing LTC by Sept1.: What it means is that someone is willing to bet on litecoins and is willing to give odds 11. (He bets 10 and someone else could bet 1 against him) The winner would get 11.

Since no one is willing (at the moment to take this odds) the assumption is that the likelihood of this event is <10% (since otherwise probably someone would take the bet)

As soon as someone is willing to bet ON bitshares we can give a upper bound for the other outcome. (Bitshares passing LTC). If you click on "use the advanced form" you see a visualization of the bounds. If you play a little bit with the slider you should get the concept of odds and corresponding percentages.

Information obv. get more reliable with more participants and higher volume. (normally as soon as >100mBTC are bet on both sites the values turns out to be pretty realistic) (since if they are not someone would come in and take the arbitrage opportunity)

 

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