Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see...