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Offline speedy

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Regarding the collateral requirements, what is the response to this fair point from someone on bter.com:

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And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

This seems to be the biggest argument for why the market peg wont work.

Offline cygnify

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2014, 09:41:18 PM »
Its not up 1000% in a week for starters. Closer to 400% ;)

Offline toast

Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2014, 09:44:02 PM »
50% pullback over how long? 1 hour? That's fine...
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Offline speedy

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2014, 09:59:08 PM »
50% pullback over how long? 1 hour? That's fine...

So is the point that if the 50% pullback is an hour or longer, then there will be enough time to force the shorter to cover i.e. a margin call. That's the point right?
« Last Edit: August 25, 2014, 10:03:26 PM by trader »

Offline donkeypong

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2014, 10:03:14 PM »
A little volatility won't hurt the market peg. BitUSD will still be stable, relative to the current price of BTSX, since traders on both sides should ensure a robust market.

Offline luckybit

Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2014, 10:51:13 PM »
Regarding the collateral requirements, what is the response to this fair point from someone on bter.com:

Quote
And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

This seems to be the biggest argument for why the market peg wont work.

Pullback into what? BitUSD?
BitUSD is all we really need now. It's better than Bitcoin in every measure and it's better than the dollar.

Maybe to pay bills people will cash out into dollars or taxes.
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Offline oldman

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2014, 10:58:00 PM »
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And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

Offline speedy

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2014, 11:06:29 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Offline tonyk

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2014, 11:19:34 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'
« Last Edit: August 25, 2014, 11:21:14 PM by TheOnion »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline speedy

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2014, 11:24:59 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

Well this is what many people expect, and they have a fair point. All Ive heard so far in response is that people just "hope" its not going to happen.

Offline tonyk

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2014, 11:27:35 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

Well this is what many people expect, and they have a fair point. All Ive heard so far in response is that people just "hope" its not going to happen.

What if 'fair' in random, based on nothing statement... I can say it will likely go up another 400% in the next week or two...at least I can defend on what I base such statements.
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline werneo

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2014, 11:28:27 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

The logic assumes that the sudden rise in the value of BTSX has captured the imagination of speculators around the globe. Speculators are not investors. Speculators are in it for the quick buck. They will bail all at once when they think the short term boom is over.  No big deal. Investors don't blink.

Offline oldman

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2014, 11:30:00 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)

Offline speedy

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Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2014, 11:39:29 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

Offline liondani

Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2014, 11:40:35 PM »
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)

I like the way you think
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