1. DOWN - CORRECTION
First, everybody and their mom got all too excited and shorted the heck out of BitUSD chasing that $1/BTSX dream all too soon.
Right now BitUSD is at a big discount - incentive to buy.
All of that happened at the same time, so right now around 31BTSX/BitUSD there is a margin call frenzy waiting to happen. Once it happens, it should generate a huge short squeeze, effectively correcting BitUSD to where it needs to be.
2. Then up we go...
If BTSX starts getting embedded even in small time businesses, it can not be too low.
With a limited supply of BTSX, imagine $10M trying to convert USD -> BTC -> BTSX -> BitUSD. Do you know the crazy amount of margin people would have to put to short 10M BitUSD?
Furthermore this will drive the price of BTSX up. Ideally we want a gateway USD <-> BitUSD, otherwise people won't like the fact that by the time it gets through the 4 steps they have run up the price of BitUSD.
I suppose they could do USD -> BTC -> BitUSD on something like BTER. That's a bit better.
Still though, the margin required for that kinds of BitUSD is insane.
At 20 BTSX/USD that means even if EVERY SINGLE holder of BTSX shorted BitUSD
, you could only create $100M BitUSD. And not to mention that's just one assest.
Take a look at this http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
Look at the stats at the bottom. This is just FOREX traders who actually decided to register with this site their real accounts.
Avg. Deposit : $77,973.88
Avg. Account Profit : $27,688.4
Avg. Account Loss : -$5,576.42
Total Funds : $2,034,338,424.34
That's $2B from just FOREX traders, who don't even know if their MetaTrader brokers are fair to them or not (software is designed to actually screw them over)
Imagine $2B trying to trade within BTSX. The cost of BTSX just to handle the deposits would need to be close to $10/BTSX !!!
And to reiterate that's just FOREX. Stocks/bonds/futures/options.
Now, I still think we will see a BTSX sell off and BitUSD run up short squeeze simply because folks clustered their margin call at the same spot around 30-31 BTSX/BitUSD.
Disclaimer: Just my opinion... no idea what will actually happen, but will watch with great interest.