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Offline FuLl

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How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« on: September 27, 2014, 09:52:01 PM »

Since this is the first snapshot I'll be a part of, I'm not sure what to expect, so I'd like to learn from those of you who've been through this before.

While I'm not particularly interested in holding Songshares, I do see a potentially profitable situation on the horizon with the Snapshot coming up. What I don't know are the historical details necessary to realistically formulate a profitable strategy.

I see that PTS rallied when the Snapshot was announced, & I have, along with apparently many others, spent some BTC on PTS since the announcement. I don't know however, if I'd be better off holding my PTS through the Snapshot so I would receive some Songshares, or if I would make more by selling my PTS just before the Snapshot, assuming its price will be at its highest say, on the 9th of October.

A) Where can I look at pricing data of BTSX, PTS, & DAC's being Snapshottted for time periods during previous Snapshots?

B) How exactly are the allotted Songshares redeemed after the Snapshot?

C) Will I have to wait at all between the time of the Snapshot & the time I'm able to have Songshares to sell?

D) When is the price of PTS expected to peak?

E) Is there maybe some counterintuitive dip that happens say, 6 hours before the Snapshot when everyone who's going to buy into it already has?

F) When is the value of the alotted Songshares expected to be high?

G) How much is the value of PTS expected to drop immediately following the Snapshot?

H) Might the value of my new Songshares plus the value of my PTS provide a healthy ROI such that I'll want to sell both sometime after the Snapshot?

I) Do newly Snapshotted/allotted DACs peak right after a Snapshot?

J) How long might I want to hold my Songshares before selling them should I be seeking to recoup what I spent on PTS?

K) Might I be able at some point to sell my Songshares at such a price that I'm able to recoup my PTS investment within a relatively short period of time, while keeping my PTS holdings intact in anticipation of a future Snapshot?

L) What strategies are others employing aside from indefinite buy & hold?

And one last question, I may as well ask because it does cross my mind not knowing...

M) Is the profit potential of this Music DAC Snapshot sure enough that it might be worthwhile for me to allocate my October's rent to it, assuming I'd be able to make enough of a profit that I could sell it, get my money back with enough left over to cover my late fees & then some?


Thanks in advance for your feedback.

-F

Offline tonyk

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2014, 10:43:00 PM »
I will not use my rent money for investments... but that is just me.
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline FuLl

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2014, 11:15:01 PM »
I will not use my rent money for investments... but that is just me.

Yeah, I know it's a bad idea. I was hesitant to even ask, but I would if it were a sure bet at a serious profit.

Offline carpet ride

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How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2014, 12:00:26 AM »
I will not use my rent money for investments... but that is just me.

Yeah, I know it's a bad idea. I was hesitant to even ask, but I would if it were a sure bet at a serious profit.

PTS may fall after a snap shot(see Stan's blog post: Watch for falling PTS), and your gains on investment may only be realized when BTS music is up and running weeks or months later.. I would not bet the rent money, but if I were you I would maybe pick up a weekend gig to be able to throw down another couple hundos


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Offline FuLl

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2014, 12:09:26 AM »
PTS may fall after a snap shot(see Stan's blog post: Watch for falling PTS), and your gains on investment may only be realized when BTS music is up and running weeks or months later..

Who's Stan, & where's his blog?

I had the same idea that 'music' might take awhile to gain value. So maybe that won't be part of what I do.

Right now the money I have in PTS was what I had in mind to use to incorporate a business I want to start. I might still want to do that, & I'm hoping I can make $100 or so on the PTS spike, if it materializes.

...Always on the lookout for a side job.

Offline carpet ride

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2014, 12:11:10 AM »

PTS may fall after a snap shot(see Stan's blog post: Watch for falling PTS), and your gains on investment may only be realized when BTS music is up and running weeks or months later..

Who's Stan, & where's his blog?

I had the same idea that 'music' might take awhile to gain value. So maybe that won't be part of what I do.

Right now the money I have in PTS was what I had in mind to use to incorporate a business I want to start. I might still want to do that, & I'm hoping I can make $100 or so on the PTS spike, if it materializes.

...Always on the lookout for a side job.

See the BitShares.org blog. .. Lots of other gems there too


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Offline FuLl

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2014, 12:24:46 AM »
Good post, thanks.

http://bitshares.org/watch-for-falling-pts/

I hadn't gone all the way to page 3 when I first checked it out, actually I forgot about the blog. Glad to have it back on my radar.

Offline mf-tzo

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2014, 12:45:44 AM »
Before BTSX snapshot back in FEB if I remember correctly PTS were worth $25-$30 dollars and after the snapshot the price decreased very brutally. Many, including me didn't see that coming and kept buying PTS... So based on that yes, PTS price falls after the snapshot.

BUT!!! Since then things have changed remarkably! DNS-Vote snapshot happened and PTS price after the snapshot didn't fell much. Just fell a little bit and recouped very easily back to pre-snapshot levels, even if bitcoin was falling in price.

All in all I don't think that you will ever see PTS to fall below $2 - $3 especially with the anticipation of new snapshots in the near future. But then again I have been burned in the past with the PTS trading so I would definitely not risk my rent on that..
Also another variable to consider is that when DNS will launch and makes a killing and reaches NMCs market cap within 1 month, or BTSX surpasses LTC, everyone will realise what the potential appreciation of all the I3 DACs and expect PTS to increase back to $10- $20 range just for the anticipation of whatever DAC is launched by this awesome team who will revolutionaze the future!

P.S. I had some drinks tonight and I am talking too much...sorry..



Offline bitmeat

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2014, 02:35:24 AM »

Offline tonyk

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2014, 02:53:22 AM »

Yep...positive now...it's contagious...
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline cube

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2014, 08:55:47 AM »
Before BTSX snapshot back in FEB if I remember correctly PTS were worth $25-$30 dollars and after the snapshot the price decreased very brutally. Many, including me didn't see that coming and kept buying PTS... So based on that yes, PTS price falls after the snapshot.

BUT!!! Since then things have changed remarkably! DNS-Vote snapshot happened and PTS price after the snapshot didn't fell much. Just fell a little bit and recouped very easily back to pre-snapshot levels, even if bitcoin was falling in price.
...


PTS was around 0.03BTC before the FEB snapshot and plunged to around 0.01BTC after the snapshot.  The drop is significant.  Things changed after the first snapshot. The slight is smaller but much earlier . Take for example, in the latest snapshot in Aug 2014, the price spiked to around 0.009BTC (from around 0.0065BTC) immediately after the announcement which was one to two weeks before the snapshot.  It peaked at 0.009 and started sliding down to 0.007 one week before the snapshot.  It dropped from 0.007 to 0.0055 right after the snapshot.

I am seeing similar trend now.  The price should be reaching its peak soon or is at it now.

Edit: One thing for sure. If I were you, I would not bet my rent on it.  It is not worth the risk.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2014, 08:59:16 AM by cube »
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Offline serejandmyself

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Offline Thom

Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2014, 03:35:43 PM »
Forgive my ignorance. but since I'm very interested in the DNS DAC, so its important I understand this.

What exactly is a snapshot? It obviously implies something in motion and saving the state of whatever is in motion.

In this discussion we're talking about the Music DAC, so how is that in motion? I didn't think that was launched yet. Is the Music DAC "in motion" starting from the transactions in a genesis block ongoing to the present, such transactions representing trades between developers of the Music DAC?

I see the term snapshot used fairly often but I haven't found just what it means in a bitshares / DAC context yet.

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Offline robrigo

Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2014, 03:50:55 PM »
Forgive my ignorance. but since I'm very interested in the DNS DAC, so its important I understand this.

What exactly is a snapshot? It obviously implies something in motion and saving the state of whatever is in motion.

In this discussion we're talking about the Music DAC, so how is that in motion? I didn't think that was launched yet. Is the Music DAC "in motion" starting from the transactions in a genesis block ongoing to the present, such transactions representing trades between developers of the Music DAC?

I see the term snapshot used fairly often but I haven't found just what it means in a bitshares / DAC context yet.

A snapshot is an instant in time in which the BitShares PTS blockchain state is "saved". Then using the PTS wallet keys, holders of PTS can claim their stake from the initial allocation of the new DAC that corresponds to the snapshot when the Proto DAC blockchain is released into the wild. The process of claiming is built right into the BitShares toolkit, so you can upload the PTS wallet directly from the GUI of the new DAC and receive your stake. Some exchanges handle this process for you, but it is always safer to hold your own PTS in a local wallet.

P.S. I haven't claimed any stake this way yet, so if someone sees a hole in my explanation please correct me!

Offline feedthemcake

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Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2014, 05:18:11 PM »
Is anyone interested in posting about the Music DAC snapshot in the music forum of reddit? Might be a good place to push it?

Also, is there any plans for contacting actual bands? I have a personal relationship with the singer of a band that has sold over 500,000 records but I don't want to say anything until this is really solid. He also seems like the type of person who may be on board with this and has a huge connection to many many many other bands. If you're aged 18-35 in the USA you probably know this band.

 

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