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Messages - maqifrnswa

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136
General Discussion / BitAsset2.0 pricing theory
« on: October 16, 2015, 03:13:52 pm »
This is somethig i've been trying to get to the bottom of since BTA2.0 was announced...
How do you price a short?

The system allows for automatic destruction of BTA when there is an oversupply, but I thought there was no mechanism to cause the creation of BTA when there was on under supply. However, the SWAN event essentially wipes out the market based on external feeds and thus is the mechanism for "creating" bitassets (then instantly destroying them) when in a massive under-supply.

Therefore, pricing bitassets is becoming a little clearer. The system enforces:
SWAN < bitUSD/BTS  < USD_FEED
A/USD_FEED < bitUSD/BTS < USD_FEED
where A is the least collateralize debt/collateral ratio (in units of bitUSD/BTS). We can assume A is essentially a constant. A can change, but the rate it will change is relatively slow as it requires a significant number of people to up their collateral.

So there are two prices, with a very large spread:
1) If I think USD_FEED should go down (that is BTS value increasing), I want to short at USD_FEED so I make a profit no matter what (or at worst, break even).

2) If I think USD_FEED will increase (BTS value decrease), I want to buy bitA at as close to SWAN as I can, as I will make a profit no matter what (or at worst, break even).

Therefore, as long as BTS is increasing in value (i.e., making a profit), I will want to short as close to USD_FEED as I can get. That is the mechanism that enforces the peg.

The only participants in such a market are those that all agree that BTS value will increase, but disagree over the rate and/or premium that should be paid.

Conversely, if market participants all expect a black swan, price will drop to black swan levels and market participants will play the game of chicken with the price feed. Since that is a one shot event that destroys the market, and value of BTS, the only participant will be those that also shorted BTS on an external exchange.

BTS profit (and expected future profit) is essential to the peg in BTS2.0 to 1) enforce the peg, and 2) grow the number of users participating in the market.

137
General Discussion / Re: Margin Call Explanation & Beware of Illiquid Markets with Low Margin
« on: October 16, 2015, 02:33:27 pm »
This addresses one of my previous rants about the supply-side of bitassets. From the supply-side approach, I think it illustrates that SQP should be a percentage of SWAN not FEED.

1) When BID < (CALL=debt/collatoral*.175), then a forced margin call is made which destroys a bitasset.
2) During a short squeeze, 1 bitA is worth more than 1 corresponding asset (e.g., 1 bitUSD > 1 USD). That means there is an under-supply of bitA. When in under-supply, avoid destroying bitassets. In fact, people should have an incentive to short above the highest bid since they are being paid a premium [footnote].
3) Since bitA should not be destroyed, margin calls should be avoided until DEBT/COLLATERAL=1, that is, the SWAN value. SQP should enforce this.

Therefore, SQP should be a function of SWAN. You want it as close to SWAN as possible while still giving a cushion to force collatoralization and avoid the swan. Since FEED and SWAN are not functions of each other, setting SQP to a fraction of FEED doesn't necessarily perform proper squeeze protection, and in fact could potentially push the short squeeze in the wrong direction by destroying bitA that are already overvalued.




[footnote] Pricing bit assets is becoming a little clearer. The system enforces:
SWAN < bitUSD/BTS  < USD_FEED
A/USD_FEED < bitUSD/BTS < USD_FEED
where A is the least collateralize debt/collateral ratio (in units of bitA/BTS)

So there are two arbitrage opportunities:
If I think USD_FEED should go down (that is BTS value increasing), I want to short at USD_FEED so I make a profit no matter what (or at worst, break even).

If I think USD_FEED will increase (BTS value decrease), I want to buy bitA at close to SWAN as I can, as I will make a profit no matter what (or at worst, break even).

Therefore, as long as BTS is increasing in value (i.e., making a profit), I will want to short as close to USD_FEED as I can get.

138
General Discussion / Re: Anyone concerned about the vol?
« on: October 16, 2015, 01:58:49 pm »
Volume and liquidity comes from traders. There's a new API and market matching system, so the old traders have to catch up. Low liquidity offers opportunity for market makers to make easy money, but there are no market making bots written yet. I used to be a market maker but have been too busy to get started with this new system. The first person to do inject liquidity will profit the most.

139
Technical Support / Re: [Python] Price Feed Script for BitShares 2.0
« on: October 16, 2015, 12:53:53 pm »
Quote from: abit on October 16, 2015, 12:38:42 pm
Thanks for the info.
However I don't think this parameter should be DECIDED by witnesses, it's better to be set as a system parameter, and adjustable by committee proposals.

Agree, in the "separation of powers,"
  • Witnesses are supposed to be economically dumb but technically literate system administrators
  • Committee members are supposed to balance economics and system performance
  • Proxies are well informed members of the community
  • Workers are technical experts in the system

this seems like a role for committee members to suggest and users to approve. Witnesses shouldn't be held accountable for their decisions on network parameters.

140
Technical Support / Re: Litewallet, White screen after clicking "Retry"
« on: October 15, 2015, 08:53:12 pm »
submitted here:
https://github.com/cryptonomex/graphene-ui/issues/337

141
General Discussion / Re: BitShares 2 Release Coordination Thread
« on: October 15, 2015, 08:47:23 pm »
maqifrnswa (1.6.43) is ready if needed but needs to be voted in

142
General Discussion / Re: BitShares 2 Release Coordination Thread
« on: October 15, 2015, 07:55:33 pm »
witness maqifrnswa is up to date

143
Technical Support / Re: too many keys,i can't import.
« on: October 15, 2015, 12:39:31 am »
Quote from: lzr1900 on October 15, 2015, 12:25:48 am
i use mac.that was too difficult forme

I've heard someone with 40k keys say that if you just wait a long time (leave it running over night), it will works.
Also, try Firefox instead of Safari. Someone else posted that they couldn't import 20k keys using Safari but could using Firefox.

144
General Discussion / Re: BitShares 2 Release Coordination Thread
« on: October 15, 2015, 12:34:54 am »
Quote from: EkremH on October 14, 2015, 10:36:22 pm
No, oct 5 was just an example. I found at the source the genesis.json, but I could not find seed node ?

it should find the seed node and use the genesis with no arguments
Code: [Select]
./witness_node
Is supposed to just work, no genesis file or seeds are needed. This is different than the testnet where you had to give it seed nodes and genesis.json.

also, witness maqifrnswa needs votes

145
Technical Support / Re: Bitshares2 CLI and Light Wallet PPA (Ubuntu)
« on: October 15, 2015, 12:24:48 am »
Quote from: noisy on October 14, 2015, 09:19:20 pm
I have this problem:

http://gfycat.com/PaltrySandyBallpython

first, that is an awesome trick for sharing screen vids

second: try again - I had problems today around 5pm - 5:30 eastern time connecting to their servers.

Third: the fact the screen goes "white" is something I've seen in both the light wallet and the web wallet, I think it's a bug in the web side. I'll share it with the UI team to see what they think: https://github.com/cryptonomex/graphene-ui/issues/337

146
Technical Support / Re: too many keys,i can't import.
« on: October 15, 2015, 12:22:03 am »
I followed this:
https://github.com/bitshares/bitshares-2/wiki/Import%20BitShares-0.9.3c%20wallets%20into%20BitShares%202.0%20CLI%20wallet

and it worked for me

147
Technical Support / Re: Building the light wallet
« on: October 15, 2015, 12:07:45 am »
Quote from: fubly on October 14, 2015, 11:25:30 pm
I got a lot of error´s on ubuntu 14.04

1. apt-get install npm
2. create user bitshares:bitshares with home directory and cd to it
3. git clone https://github.com/cryptonomex/graphene-ui
4. cd graphene-ui
5. for I in cli dl web; do cd $I; npm install; cd ..; done  (errors without an end)


Here are my steps:

1. apt-get install npm nodejs-legacy
2. git clone https://github.com/bitshares-2-ui/bitshares-2-ui (for bitshares2, otherwise graphene-ui)
3. cd bitshares-2-ui
4. for I in cli dl web; do cd $I; npm install; cd ..; done  (this works for me, otherwise try commands below)
cd cli
npm install
cd ..
cd dl
npm install
cd ..
cd web
npm install
npm run-script build
x-www-browser dist/index.html

if you want to build the electron (chromium) based browser:
cd electron
npm install
cp -a ../web/dist/* build/
npm start

148
General Discussion / Re: BitShares 2 Release Coordination Thread
« on: October 14, 2015, 09:43:54 pm »
my witness is up for as long as it is needed. I helped testing on testnet.
I was a little delayed getting it up, was checking and double checking the ubuntu linux builds. Both the light wallet and CLI is working well over there for the past day.

Code: [Select]
get_witness maqifrnswa
{
  "id": "1.6.43",
  "witness_account": "1.2.6004",
  "last_aslot": 0,
  "signing_key": "BTS61sn4chv5XVwEEbkmU3V7atoHcfuRfdwKjaeTNEsaXSLQgNCcm",
  "vote_id": "1:54",
  "total_votes": 0,
  "url": "",
  "total_missed": 0,
  "last_confirmed_block_num": 0
}

149
General Discussion / Re: Graphene GUI testing and feedback
« on: October 14, 2015, 08:01:58 pm »
Quote from: sircodealot on October 14, 2015, 05:18:44 pm
I can appreciate the mitigation against increasing blockchain exposure to spam attacks, but, really, this is a bad trade-off when you consider unreturned fee on cancellation as friction against liquidity.  I'm now much less interested in quickly responding to market changes since it costs me to simply change/cancel an existing order to respond to changing market conditions.  I think a better mitigation is to return the fee after a short period of time, say a minute or two, enough so that the malicious spam attack would not be noticeable by the market.

I believe each fee can be set independently by a vote on the network. If enough users agree with you, it will be changed.

150
Technical Support / How to get a cli_wallet file in to openledger?
« on: October 14, 2015, 04:42:13 pm »
I have 10s of thousands of keys, so I used the cli_wallet to import the keys. All balances and accounts show up correctly.

Now that the keys and balances are all imported, is it possible to import that wallet to openledger (or the light client)?

I used the "save_wallet_file" method in cli_wallet to output a wallet.json. When I try to import that file in to the light client I am told, "Invalid Format."

Is this the right want to do this?

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