BitShares Forum
Other => Random Discussion => Topic started by: Tuck Fheman on August 27, 2015, 04:33:00 am
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Both the stock market and oil prices have been plunging. Is this “just another cycle,” or is it something much worse? I think it is something much worse.
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Eventually, even at near zero interest rates, the amount of debt becomes too high, relative to income. Governments become afraid of adding more debt. Young people find student loans so burdensome that they put off buying homes and cars. The economic “pump” that used to result from rising wages and rising debt slows, slowing the growth of the world economy. With slow economic growth comes low demand for commodities that are used to make homes, cars, factories, and other goods. This slow economic growth is what brings the persistent trend toward low commodity prices experienced in recent years.
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- The big thing that is happening is that the world financial system is likely to collapse.
- Without the financial system, pretty much nothing else works.
- We don’t know how fast things will unravel, but things are likely to be quite different in as short a time as a year.
- The electricity system, as delivered by the grid, is likely to fail in approximately the same timeframe as our oil-based system.
- Our economy is a self-organized networked system that continuously dissipates energy, known in physics as a dissipative structure.
- The reason that collapse happens quickly has to do with debt and derivatives.
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Conclusion
The analysis that comes closest to the situation we are reaching today is the 1972 analysis of limits of a finite world, published in the book “The Limits to Growth” by Donella Meadows and others. It models what can be expected to happen, if population and resource extraction grow as expected, gradually tapering off as diminishing returns are encountered. The base model seems to indicate that a collapse will happen about now.
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/08/26/deflationary-collapse-ahead
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The electricity system, as delivered by the grid, is likely to fail in approximately the same timeframe as our oil-based system.
This makes me think its FUD ..
First of all, "the electricity" system is a local thing (Europe vs. U.S. vs. Chiena vs. ...)
Why should "dept" have an influence on the power grid?
Though I do see the signs too, I wouldn't call the end of the world ..
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The electricity system, as delivered by the grid, is likely to fail in approximately the same timeframe as our oil-based system.
This makes me think its FUD ..
First of all, "the electricity" system is a local thing (Europe vs. U.S. vs. Chiena vs. ...)
Why should "dept" have an influence on the power grid?
Though I do see the signs too, I wouldn't call the end of the world ..
"All systems are dependent on the financial system. If the oil system cannot pay its workers and get replacement parts because of a collapse in the financial system, the same is likely to be true of the electrical grid system."
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(http://preparedforthat.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/hair-on-fire.jpg)
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The world is ending! Lock the bunker door!
(http://img.memecdn.com/empty-pool-in-3-2_o_1681263.jpg)
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We're due for a recession and stock pullback since its been 6 years now since the last one, but we're not going to have a total economic collapse. Its not going to be as bad as 2008.
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We're due for a recession and stock pullback since its been 6 years now since the last one, but we're not going to have a total economic collapse. Its not going to be as bad as 2008.
That's a pretty absolute statement... Are you betting that it won't be as bad?
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We're due for a recession and stock pullback since its been 6 years now since the last one, but we're not going to have a total economic collapse. Its not going to be as bad as 2008.
That's a pretty absolute statement... Are you betting that it won't be as bad?
Yes, 2008 was a once or twice a century level event. The chance that we have something worse than that in the next decade is only around 10-20% imo.
Libertarians will go on and on forever about the dollar being overprinted and becoming worthless, and everything falling apart, but actually inflation is low and has been low for three decades now, and the fed managed to avoid a crisis that could have become a depression because they are actually very good at their jobs. The off the grid types who sit around waiting for civilization to collapse are missing the boat, imo, they should be focused on the incredibly technological progress our civilization is making to improve human life.
Of course there is always a chance things fall apart due to war or epidemics or whatever, but this would be an immense tragedy.
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So. Not a fan of Austrian economics huh Ander?
While I don't really agree with the quote in the OP, I think something much worse than 08 is coming. The underlying mis allocation of capital was never allowed to adjust. To keep the current system alive would require something like Volker did to clear out all the dead brush.
In my opinion at least.
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So. Not a fan of Austrian economics huh Ander?
I'm only partially a fan. Austrian economics followers got their perfect economic storm in 2008 and the system survived mostly intact, even though they said everything was going to fall apart.
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... but we're not going to have a total economic collapse. Its not going to be as bad as 2008.
(http://33.media.tumblr.com/b7f3e104144de3063512e70e44082b4d/tumblr_nnfwgvu6kk1rtef2wo1_500.gif)
(http://33.media.tumblr.com/e65273666c06a3866a9247fff94c7dcb/tumblr_nnfwr0KWH71rtef2wo4_r1_1280.gif)
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... but we're not going to have a total economic collapse. Its not going to be as bad as 2008.
(http://33.media.tumblr.com/b7f3e104144de3063512e70e44082b4d/tumblr_nnfwgvu6kk1rtef2wo1_500.gif)
(http://33.media.tumblr.com/e65273666c06a3866a9247fff94c7dcb/tumblr_nnfwr0KWH71rtef2wo4_r1_1280.gif)
And we should call every truth false which was not accompanied by at least one laugh. - Nietzsche
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I guess I should know better than to make statements like that to you guys, lol. :P
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I guess I should know better than to make statements like that to you guys, lol. :P
It's tough to be a voice of reason, isn't it?