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I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade. I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/. BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account. I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account. We will see which way of resolving works best.
BTW.. the title of this topic is a lie.we - bitshares community - should name things properly. We should stop overpromise things. Right now this is at most a Proof of Concept.
Quote from: sports-owner on February 01, 2016, 07:29:32 amQuote from: noisy on February 01, 2016, 07:23:40 amIn my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.I agree. Also being able to use numbers would be very useful. While you are at it allow me to reuse markets. EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled. So names can be reused.Did you see my post about adding description fields for assets?Some fields I'm thinking would be useful are:A long descriptionPreferred market, if you want the GUI to link to a non-BTS pair for exampleExpiryShort description of the conditionAny more you'd like to see? I could add an alternative symbol field that could include numbers..What would you like to see included
Quote from: noisy on February 01, 2016, 07:23:40 amIn my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.I agree. Also being able to use numbers would be very useful. While you are at it allow me to reuse markets. EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled. So names can be reused.
In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.
Quote from: sports-owner on January 30, 2016, 01:29:57 am@morpheus Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.@fuzzy I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter. Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.can we get a little group to do so? also, remember anytime you sharedrop on beyond bitcoin volunteers and attendees, i will do my best to plug your token...unless i find it ridiculous, though hilarious, like (SPERM)...
@morpheus Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.@fuzzy I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter. Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs. I'll create the proposals, and vote. Even better might be the committee-trade account. It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.
Quote from: svk on January 27, 2016, 07:11:18 amI'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes. They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded. They have some screenshots on their site.http://www.augur.net/
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?
Quote from: morpheus on January 26, 2016, 06:19:25 pm@sports-owner The PM can also be used as a binary options market. Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies. Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.For example, Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contractI propose creating the following markets initially:WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 - If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts. I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts. I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00Here you are.http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDEhttp://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVEenjoy
@sports-owner The PM can also be used as a binary options market. Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies. Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.For example, Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contractI propose creating the following markets initially:WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 - If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts. I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts. I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00
Quote from: TravelsAsia on January 27, 2016, 01:44:00 pmQuote from: svk on January 27, 2016, 07:11:18 amI'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.pngAnyone else like this look? It would make life so much easier for anyone wanting to participate that doesn't have a crypto background?
Quote from: svk on January 27, 2016, 07:11:18 amI'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png
Should we have a prefix for a prediction market to stop asset names getting untidy?
From the moment I read about PMs on Bitshares I have been thinking about how we could make them more useful ( I don't care about outcomes of US elections too much, nor sports ). And I just found following idea, what do you think about it?QuoteHanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science", he writes:QuoteIf the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.There are more ideas for usage of PMs. Here is the source.
Hanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science", he writes:QuoteIf the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.
If the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.
I think in the newest version you can just borrow as usual with a fixed collateral ratio of 1x ..you still need to sell those shares though
Quote from: xeroc on January 25, 2016, 08:01:58 pmA feed resolves the prediction market:Read more about the idea:http://docs.bitshares.eu/bitshares/user/pm.htmlSo we need to borrow via the cli?Code: [Select]borrow_asset <account> <amount> <PMsymbol> <1:1-amount> trueExample: borrow_asset riverhead 100 SPORTS.SBLAFC BTS true
A feed resolves the prediction market:Read more about the idea:http://docs.bitshares.eu/bitshares/user/pm.html
borrow_asset <account> <amount> <PMsymbol> <1:1-amount> true
Care to explain how it works?
Are you going to do a PM for the Super Bowl?Can open bids, asks, and collateral positions be cancelled at the beginning of the game?Can these PMs be created through the gui at this point in time?
Quote from: sports-owner on January 25, 2016, 01:03:28 amQuote from: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 12:33:18 amNo feed for NFC game?What do you mean?The OP said short and sell for one condition and buy and hold for another. There was nothing for sale and I couldn't short.
Quote from: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 12:33:18 amNo feed for NFC game?What do you mean?
No feed for NFC game?
BTS fees can easily be adjusted by the committee, to keep up with changes in underlying value.
Quote from: abit on January 22, 2016, 12:27:08 amQuote from: puppies on January 21, 2016, 10:34:29 pmI definitely think its too high. The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset. Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.What does everyone else think?Aren't you a LTM?Yes. 40bts is not too bad. I am also making PM purchases of 1000 plus bts so its a small fee if the PM ends up true. I think this fee is too large to help us get traction with our PM feature. It is too high to build a business around.
Quote from: puppies on January 21, 2016, 10:34:29 pmI definitely think its too high. The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset. Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.What does everyone else think?Aren't you a LTM?
I definitely think its too high. The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset. Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.What does everyone else think?
This is revolutionary.One question. From the docs:QuoteSince PM-Assets can technically be pegged by any other asset, you may need to pay USD (or anything else) instead of BTS.However, the asset is still backed by BTS, correct? So, in a rising BTS market, winners stand to gain more than they would in a falling BTS market?
Since PM-Assets can technically be pegged by any other asset, you may need to pay USD (or anything else) instead of BTS.
For anyone who is interested, there's this tutorial by xeroc http://docs.bitshares.org/bitshares/user/pm.html
I settled my test prediction market asset in the GUI today. It worked, but the fee to settle is 200bts.