The power-ball prizes would have to limited to 1% of the money supply and have a limited withdraw rate. If you take a lump-sum payout you only get 10%, but if you payout over 24 months you can get the whole thing.
On a network like Bitcoin, it would be a $50 million dollar jackpot which would drive a lot of people to attempt to win it and thus 'hold' bitcoin and mine it. There is obviously a chicken and the egg problem as the prizes would be small unless enough people caught on. But with a network like BitShares, such a bounty is easily a potential.
I agree that there is a segment of the population that demands predictability. This segment will probably mine in pools which would eliminate most variance and is unlikely to solo-mine. So randomness should not change things for the pool miner.
Well then I don't necessarily see the whole point in using a randomized "lottery-style" reward mechanism. Like you said, people can still join pools to the same effect as before, but so can cloud miners and botnets.
What purpose does using this lottery reward system solve in terms of evening out the mining rewards when a botnet or cloud miner still has a significant advantage in gaining just as much as they did when protoshares were released (if not more if their luck is better)?
In my opinion this mechanism will provide Bitshares with the exact opposite effect than the one you want.
Releasing these grand prizes will most likely cause frustration further in solo miners that don't pool as they'll constantly see these "powerballs" floating right towards these giant botnets, cloud miners, and over-sized pools. In this scenario I also believe people want predictability more than you think and I can easily see an incredibly oversized pool with over 50% of the hashing power popping up.
- As always, not criticizing, just voicing concerns.