BitShares Forum
Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: topcandle on November 03, 2015, 02:01:09 pm
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Please vote. The next focus feature is extremely important.
We need Prediction Markets.
Why?
Cause they promote burning of fees. eg. purchasing questions is equivalent to buying UIA/MPA. This will make Bitshares more profitable than bond markets. They allow a larger range of speculation than just ALTCOINS. YOU CAN SPECULATE ON ANYTHING CONCEIVABLE.
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Not to mention this was orginally promised in the Bitshares 1.0 design....
POLL ADDED.
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Please vote you guys. This is important.
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Wouldnt a bond market bring in more liquidity? Plus we would always be under the shadow of augur so... The optimal decision would be to go for bond markets? I dont know however, the level of difficulty achieving each one of those tasks
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I believe prediction markets is a good idea, as it diversifies the offering. Bonds straight afterwards ;)
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bond market ,
I think it is the kill app of bts
many many people in Chinese like high risk investment, like BTC leveraged exchange , but the exchange platform usually do evil, but there isn`t a decentralize exchange .
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Wouldnt a bond market bring in more liquidity? Plus we would always be under the shadow of augur so... The optimal decision would be to go for bond markets? I dont know however, the level of difficulty achieving each one of those tasks
I'd argue no because Prediction Markets would bring numerous arbitrage opportunities between Augur and Bitshares. They both would have to reflect the same prediction price, if not there is opportunities for somebody to make a profit. This is self rewarding. Meaning more transactions on the network.
Also why would we be in the shadow of Augur. Our system is faster. Similarly there is plenty of room for Augur and Bitshares.
Think 2016 Presidential Elections.
Think of all the questions in DIFFERENT LANGUAGES
THINK OF ALL THE QUESTIONS IN DIFFERENT ACADEMIC FIELDS
THINK OF ALL THE FINANCIAL QUESTIONS
THINK OF ALL THE SPORTS QUESTIONS
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Prediction Markets are really nice. imagine if we had like 10% of augur... would be an instant win
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I'd vote for bond markets, but not @bytemaster's design for them; they need blockchain driven margin calls, or their not worth implementing IMO.
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I'd vote for bond markets, but not @bytemaster's design for them; they need blockchain driven margin calls, or their not worth implementing IMO.
I wholly agree. That's why I am extremely weary about the bond markets. IT HAS TO BE MARGIN type. Why I don't think this will happen? I know Bytemaster has a way to promise something and when he delivers is not in line with our expectations.
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I wholly agree. That's why I am extremely weary about the bond markets. IT HAS TO BE MARGIN type. Why I don't think this will happen? I know Bytemaster has a way to promise something and when he delivers is not in line with our expectations.
Why i don't think it will happen is because he's said it wont :)
I'm hoping he can be swayed, tho...
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Wouldnt a bond market bring in more liquidity? Plus we would always be under the shadow of augur so... The optimal decision would be to go for bond markets? I dont know however, the level of difficulty achieving each one of those tasks
It's a tough one. Augur is currently valued at around $22 million (possibly inflated by limited supply) and it hasn't even been released yet.
https://gatecoin.com/ Their 189000 video views and 5000+ on an update mailing list is also compelling.
So it's tempting but they have first mover advantage and will probably get the majority of business unless BTS can considerably improve on their weaknesses, which may be speed of outcomes.
Even though horse race betting is theoretically do-able, it’s likely to be awhile before Augur evolves into a serious threat to the pari-mutuel system.First there is the obvious problem of Augur’s markets not being liquid enough to compete.Then there is the difficulty of the lag time involved in reporting results by consensus
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/could-augur-shift-more-than-the-betting-paradigm/
Also...
The price alone should give Nevada sportsbook operators pause; an estimated one percent of every pot will go to keep the system running. The average vig today is about 10 times that. Augur isn't a full-fledged casino. You can't play roulette or poker, and running lotto on the platform would be tricky. But it'll be great for sports betting.
https://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/augur-gambling-prediction-ethereum
BTS does have the capacity to offer Las Vegas on a blockchain, so I would choose attempting to dominate the entire gambling market as the route to outcompete them. However I know that's not popular.
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The reason I vote bond markets is that you can emulate prediction markets using privatised bitAssets. The feed price becomes the oracle. You cannot do the same thing with bond markets.
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Can't prediction markets be implemented using private bitasset markets?
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Next goal: make gateways working in "single-transfer" and "end-to-end" mode, without trading OPEN.BTC, TRADE.BTC, SOMETHING.BTC with bitBTC.
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The reason I vote bond markets is that you can emulate prediction markets using privatised bitAssets. The feed price becomes the oracle. You cannot do the same thing with bond markets.
The thing is you can only do binominal type outcomes. There is no scalar type outcomes. Eg. Bitshares = Republicans will gain >200 seats in the House and Senate?
Augur = How many seats will Congress gain in the house and the senate?
This is a big downside because your missing out on all the sports, financial statistical type questions.
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Next goal: make gateways working in "single-transfer" and "end-to-end" mode, without trading OPEN.BTC, TRADE.BTC, SOMETHING.BTC with bitBTC.
+5%
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Can't prediction markets be implemented using private bitasset markets?
Only Binominal outcomes can. And this in of itself is very limiting. IT will do nothing but to show how inferior Bitshares is to Augur and Ethereum.
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The reason I vote bond markets is that you can emulate prediction markets using privatised bitAssets. The feed price becomes the oracle. You cannot do the same thing with bond markets.
The thing is you can only do binominal type outcomes. There is no scalar type outcomes. Eg. Bitshares = Republicans will gain >200 seats in the House and Senate?
Augur = How many seats will Congress gain in the house and the senate?
This is a big downside because your missing out on all the sports, financial statistical type questions.
Thats not true at all. Bitassets are not binomial markets.
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The reason I vote bond markets is that you can emulate prediction markets using privatised bitAssets. The feed price becomes the oracle. You cannot do the same thing with bond markets.
The thing is you can only do binominal type outcomes. There is no scalar type outcomes. Eg. Bitshares = Republicans will gain >200 seats in the House and Senate?
Augur = How many seats will Congress gain in the house and the senate?
This is a big downside because your missing out on all the sports, financial statistical type questions.
Thats not true at all. Bitassets are not binomial markets.
So how do you do tournament style prediction markets in Bitassets?
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Wouldnt a bond market bring in more liquidity? Plus we would always be under the shadow of augur so... The optimal decision would be to go for bond markets? I dont know however, the level of difficulty achieving each one of those tasks
I'd argue no because Prediction Markets would bring numerous arbitrage opportunities between Augur and Bitshares. They both would have to reflect the same prediction price, if not there is opportunities for somebody to make a profit. This is self rewarding. Meaning more transactions on the network.
Also why would we be in the shadow of Augur. Our system is faster. Similarly there is plenty of room for Augur and Bitshares.
That's a valid point, however I still think we would only capture a fraction of their market share. I mean, in the long run we could outperform them but for now I don't know if it should be a top priority. But I'm not really an expert so I say whatever brings in more liquidity. Bond markets would bring in more traders, prediction markets would bring in more new users... I don't know who contributes with more volume. I tend to prefer bond market.
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It's a TIE between PM's and BM's.
Looks like Bytemaster is open to putting forth a margin account for bond markets. This is really good news.
I think the order matching rules are pretty good right now. It seems to be standard (same as other exchanges).
The margin trading using the current orderbook to determine whether or not to execute sounds like the right way to go. My question is how does it bootstrap?
If I lend funds to someone when there is no order book, then it is impossible to "call".
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I'd vote for bond markets, but not @bytemaster's design for them; they need blockchain driven margin calls, or their not worth implementing IMO.
I agree.
Bond market needs to be built into our blockchain enforced margin and leverage system. The way that polo uses lending and margin together, we need to use bond market and lending together. Bond market / lending for margin traders needs to be the same thing!
While I would say that this bond market / margin trading is the bigger deal, it is probably harder. So I would vote prediction first while we work out how the bond market and margin will work. Unless the devs think that bond market implemented this way would actually be faster.
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Can't prediction markets be implemented using private bitasset markets?
Yes, they are already supported just need the GUI to manage it.
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After reviewing the design of margin trading on Poloniex I think we can do the exact same thing on BitShares.
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Can't prediction markets be implemented using private bitasset markets?
Yes, they are already supported just need the GUI to manage it.
In that case lets go prediction markets if it is easier.
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Can't prediction markets be implemented using private bitasset markets?
Yes, they are already supported just need the GUI to manage it.
In that case lets go prediction markets if it is easier.
+5%
Prediction Market will bring more value to BitShares ecosystem atm imo
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Can't prediction markets be implemented using private bitasset markets?
Yes, they are already supported just need the GUI to manage it.
In that case lets go prediction markets if it is easier.
Seems like we can have both :P
After reviewing the design of margin trading on Poloniex I think we can do the exact same thing on BitShares.
Honestly I just wanted bond markets because I could finally do something useful with my BTS. Me and a bunch of other people who don't have the trading skills but could lend bts.
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voted prediction, i like the idea. look forward to the new features either way though ^^
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Other: NONE
Its not the lack of features that hurts BitShares.
Its not being the best at the features already implemented. Its gotta look the best, feel the best & be the best. This is what will draw investments. Not features. Its got enough.
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After reviewing the design of margin trading on Poloniex I think we can do the exact same thing on BitShares.
Lets do this. This plus a good UI is what Bitshares needs to succeed.
We do not need to reinvent the wheel, we need to copy these WORKING systems that others use successfully, and make them work on a blockchain.
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After reviewing the design of margin trading on Poloniex I think we can do the exact same thing on BitShares.
Oh, didn't see this. So it might be a little easier to implement?