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Messages - theoretical

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421
General Discussion / Re: Fundamental Questions regarding bitsharesx
« on: August 29, 2014, 11:27:51 pm »
My question was specifically about BTSX shares/assets and not about generic BitShareX assets.
Is there any way to issue new BTSX shares?

No.

There were originally 2,000,000,000 BTSX in existence, however some of the transaction fees in each block are permanently destroyed (I think at least 50%).  When BTSX are destroyed, everyone's holdings increase in value a little bit.  In the genesis block, 1 BTSX was exactly 500 trillionths of all the BTSX that exist.  Now 1 BTSX is 500.01794 trillionths of all the BTSX that exist.

Another way you can think of it is that the miner rewards for Bitcoin are paid to miners by everyone holding Bitcoin, and Bitcoin itself will be "operating at a loss" until new BTC stops being printed in the year 2140 or so.

BTSX on the other hand pays part of the transaction fees to delegates, and part to everyone holding BTSX.  Thus BTSX has been "operating at a profit" since the genesis block!

I'm asking because I've just seen the function in the client for the user created assets ("Issue new assets of an asset type you control.").

Assets in the system other than BTSX have their own rules for how they are created or destroyed.  User created assets allow anyone to print their own type of coin which they can give away to anyone they want.  Market-based assets like BitUSD are printed by shorting, and in order to short you need real BTSX as collateral.

422
General Discussion / Re: insufficient depth ?
« on: August 29, 2014, 11:06:55 pm »

All orders will survive the fork, but after the fork they will execute relative to price feeds rather than the average. 

So I assume you're referring only to margin call orders.

What if the BitUSD price is going up (that is, the real price, determined by what people are willing to trade at) -- but that is not reflected in the feed until some time later?  I wonder if that delay might exceed the moving average delay long enough to increase the risk of getting into an FDIC situation, where some shorts' collateral is totally wiped out and they need to be "rescued".  Did the BitFDIC idea ever make it into production, anyway?  How does the BitFDIC deal with needing to print BTSX?

[1] I prefer avoiding the term "fork" or "hard fork" because that implies something awful.  Another thread proposed "Mandatory upgrade" to be the terminology for any change to the blockchain validation algorithm.

423

Sorry, it's taking a little longer than I expected, I've been spending most of my time testing and reporting bugs for the client, and of course trading :)

I should be able to get some done this weekend (but if there are any more fantastic margin crises or arbitrage opportunities in store, I may just trade instead).

424
General Discussion / Re: Do the assets have their own blockchain?
« on: August 29, 2014, 06:38:00 pm »

No.  BitAssets like BitUSD are on the same blockchain as BTSX.  Have you discovered yet that there's an exchange built into the wallet?  The blockchain itself enforces the ownership changes that happen as a result of the orders on the built-in exchange.  The only way the blockchain can do that, is if BitUSD is on the same blockchain as BTSX.

425
General Discussion / Re: Fundamental Questions regarding bitsharesx
« on: August 27, 2014, 09:06:22 pm »

> I hear that there will be a direct USD/bitusd asset traded in the exchanges

"Will be?"  There is already: https://bter.com/trade/BITUSD_USD https://bter.com/trade/BTSX_BTC

> does that mean that people can bypass buying btsx to buy bitshares?

You can buy BitUSD on bter at the above links with Bitcoin or real dollars, no need to go through BTSX.  (Not sure how you get real dollars on bter.)

> if so what would constitute the intrinsic value of btsx?

All the BitUSD sold on third-party exchanges was originally created by a short sale in the on-chain market.  Basically, people want BitUSD, and the only way to create BitUSD is to use BTSX to short BitUSD in the on-chain market.

426
General Discussion / Re: Proposal: Max Delegate Pay = Approval Rate
« on: August 27, 2014, 04:20:21 pm »

Suppose there are two possible policies (P or Q) that the network could follow at the choice of the delegates.

Suppose 40% of the network will vote for delegates who support policy P but never those who support policy Q, while 60% of network will vote for delegates who support policy Q but never policy P.

I think bytemaster's goal in proposing this change is to incentivize delegates to move from policy P to policy Q in this situation.  With the intent of creating consensus -- reaching equilibrium when all delegates support Q.  [1]

I thought at first that this would happen -- delegates would always be incentivized to move from P to Q in order to raise their max payout.  Because moving from P to Q would always increase your approval rating from 40% to 60%, regardless of how many delegates currently support P or Q.

But I thought a little more and realized this is not actually the case.  While the GUI tells the user they can vote for any number of candidates, in actuality each BTSX can only vote for up to some maximum number of delegates K (to keep bytes per transaction reasonable).  The Q supporters have 0.6 * M * K total votes, while the P supporters have 0.4 * M * K total votes, where M is the total number of BTSX in circulation.  If there are N_P delegates who support P, and N_Q delegates who support Q, the average number of votes per delegate for each faction would be:

    A_P = 0.4 * M * K / N_P
    A_Q = 0.6 * M * K / N_Q

At equilibrium we must have A_P = A_Q (otherwise delegates would switch to the other faction to increase their payout):

    0.4 / N_P = 0.6 / N_Q

Which simplifies to:

    0.4 / 0.6 = N_P / N_Q

In other words, the equilibrium actually occurs when the factional proportions of the delegates reflects the factional proportions of the population.  I think this will happen as long as the number of approvals is limited by K, which in turn is a fundamental consequence of limited bytes per transaction and large pool of delegates, which cannot be overcome without increasing bytes per transaction (increasing bandwidth and storage requirements for everyone) or decreasing the number of live delegates from 100 to K (greatly increasing centralization).

One solution to the conundrum might be to allow transactions that ignore the limit K and vote for up to a full slate of 101 delegates (or 151 if we increase the delegate count), but requiring such transactions to pay R times the normal fee, where R is equal to the size of the transaction divided by the size of a normal transaction.  Thus, K becomes a "soft limit" where exceeding K merely leads to an increase in fees, whereas AFAIK currently K is a "hard limit" (transactions which attempt to vote for more than K delegates are simply rejected).

[1] Under the simplifying assumption that delegates always set their payout to 100%, are thus actually paid proportional to their approval rating, and only care about their payout rate.  I.e. this model doesn't consider delegates who set lower payouts to gain approval, or delegates who believe in a minority opinion for ideological reasons and are willing to accept a lower payout as the price of keeping their principles (although both of those are quite plausible real behavior of real delegates; indeed, enabling the first option is the reason why the client allows delegates to set their pay rate!)

427

> NO ONE will hold bitcoins long term if they get diluted 10% per year

This is not strictly true.  As long as the GDP of the Bitcoin economy grows faster than 10% per year, long-term long BTC positions can still be profitable.

Bitcoin is still small compared to fiat, so there's still plenty of room for it to grow.  Once Bitcoin has penetrated every market it can, its growth will become dependent on increases in real economic activity, rather than eating markets currently served by Paypal, cash or credit cards.  There might be some room for this to happen due to productivity gains allowed by the fundamental nature of cryptocurrency, but those one-time gains won't last.

So in the long term you're right -- but the "long term" in this case is a very long time, and it's conceivable that holding Bitcoin for months or years may still be profitable in the meantime.

428
General Discussion / Re: When is BitUSD destroyed?
« on: August 27, 2014, 12:54:53 am »
Suppose I bought BitUSD by accepting somebody's short. If they close the original short will my BitUSD be converted to BTSX?

Closing a short is a two-step process for the short seller:

- Obtain BitUSD.
- Destroy the BitUSD to free the collateral (e.g. by clicking "Cover" in the GUI wallet).

In general, if you bought Alice's short for 100 BitUSD, and later she closes her short position, in between those things happening Alice must have provided $100 worth of value to some BitUSD holder in order to obtain the 100 BitUSD she used to close the position.  Likely this $100 value was provided in the form of BTSX in an order on the BitUSD / BTSX market, but it could just as easily be Bob's payment to Alice for painting his fence.

So if they close the original short, *somebody's* BitUSD was "converted" into whatever consideration Alice gave to buy back the BitUSD (but this was a mutually voluntary free market transaction).  The only exception is Alice's BitUSD can be converted involuntarily into BTSX if the price rises and the network enforces a margin call, but that's Alice's problem -- short holders (like Alice) can be forced out of their positions by the margin call, but long BitUSD holders (like you) cannot.

429
General Discussion / Re: BTSX USD quote
« on: August 27, 2014, 12:36:11 am »
It may be only me but I find that the quote BTSX BITUSD of 23 instead of bitusd BTSX 0.043478 is very confusing...

I am used to see the prices from coinmarketcap or take the BTC price on the exchanges and multiply it by the BTCUSD price. Now I have to divide things and think the opposite way...

Is there a possibility we may change this? Do others feel the same way or it is just me?

I find the .04 way confusing.  Since the early days of this forum, we've talked as if BTSX is "real money" and BitUSD is an "asset."

430
General Discussion / Re: So I clicked the "cover" button...
« on: August 26, 2014, 05:22:54 pm »

Is there any way to make a market order to cover?  If I'm short BitUSD, there's no economic reason I shouldn't be able to use the collateral to issue a Buy order at any price lower than the margin call (and if the order is filled, the BitUSD cover the position).

And there's an excellent reason to have this functionality:  If someone's entire wallet consists of short positions and they have no BTSX outside of collateral, it allows them to liquidate in an orderly fashion instead of being subjected to a margin call.  Even when not at the keyboard.

431
General Discussion / How many BitUSD did we mint today?
« on: August 26, 2014, 07:42:57 am »

Is there a way to tell how many BitUSD exist?  I think you can do this:

Code: [Select]
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_get_asset USD
{
  "id": 22,
  "symbol": "USD",
  "name": "United States Dollar",
  "description": "1 United States dollar",
  "public_data": "",
  "issuer_account_id": -2,
  "precision": 10000,
  "registration_date": "20140719T000000",
  "last_update": "20140719T000000",
  "current_share_supply": 169973506,
  "maximum_share_supply": 1000000000000000,
  "collected_fees": 3246826
}

If I am reading this right, I think you divide current_share_supply by precision to get a total of 16997.3506 BitUSD in existence.  I would appreciate someone more knowledgeable than I am giving their opinion.

432
General Discussion / Re: BTSX 0.4.8-a Known Issues Status Update
« on: August 26, 2014, 04:29:31 am »
The limiting algorithm is   average price * 10 / 9... average price gets updated every time a trade occurs...  this limits new shorts, but strait up USD vs BTSX can trade at any price.   This is a birthing problem... working to increase the average price.

The minimum short price should be in the GUI.  I need to take a while to think about the economic implications of this limiting scheme and possible failure modes...

433
General Discussion / Re: BTSX 0.4.8-a Known Issues Status Update
« on: August 26, 2014, 04:14:23 am »
In the web wallet, I'm getting "Order failed:  Assert Exception (10) short_index.order_price < market_stat->maximum_bid();" when trying to place a short at a price equal to the top bid (currently $21.00 / BTSX).

In the past, there's been some discussion on this forum about locking the price to within a certain range of delegate price feeds and/or some form of rate limiting on price changes.  I'm thinking I might be running up against some limitation like that.

But I'm not sure what limiting algorithm was actually implemented, or where the current limit is displayed.

434

For those of us who build from source, please make a 0.4.8-a tag.  I am assuming current master is 0.4.8-a (853499ca3c7926286d2aa1e35eead6ffc39133aa).

435
General Discussion / Re: FDIC for BitUSD
« on: August 20, 2014, 02:11:32 am »

We want to assure USD holders that they'll all eventually be able to sell if the price reaches some level and remains steady, but we also want to assure XTS holders that they won't be subjected to unbounded dilution over any finite time-frame.  Here are my thoughts on how to accomplish that.

Back in March I proposed a compromise between options (1) and (3).  Basically my idea was to use the amount of recently paid fees to create an upper bound on XTS dilution [1].

Thinking on the problem some more, I'm not sure if fees alone would provide adequate capitalization for the reserve.  I suggest making the reserve increase each block, up to some capitalization limit.  Then the reserve uses that money to close out undercapitalized shorts (using some deterministic algorithm based on the state of the market and ledger, subject to circuit-breaker type restrictions).  Basically XTS holders will be charged interest (through dilution) in the beginning when the reserve is being funded, then the interest goes away when the reserve's capitalization limit is reached, then the interest is charged again to recapitalize the reserve after a black swan.

The cap limit could be a simple fraction of the reserve, but I like the idea of having it based on the maximum amount of XTS that would be needed to cover (say) a 2.5x rise in price.

If you want to charge a fixed rate of interest, you could just have the reserve capitalization increase each block by some fixed fraction of the total XTS supply.  Or you could have the reserve decay exponentially to the capitalization limit to charge a higher interest rate to XTS holders when the reserve is badly undercapitalized, gradually decreasing the interest rate as the reserve nears its capitalization limit.

[1] https://github.com/drltc/xts-proposal#insured-shorts

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