This prediction does not make sense, since this war is not declared. There is no official start date, and there will be no official end date. How do you determine if it stopped or not?
That will be up to the committee to decide.
So they can decide outcome in their favor. Nice trick.
The description speaks of ending hostilities. If there are no longer any battles, and people are not getting killed, then I would say hostilities are ended.
People are always get killed even in relatively calm parts of the world. How many hostilities will you need to claim that the war is going on? How are you going to collect hostilities data?
We would have to rely on news reports and human rights organizations.
A peace settlement or long lasting cease fire would result in this market resolving to true. There must be an end to hostilites between Saudi Arabia backed pro government forces, and the Houthi rebels. Anti terrorism activities taken on a small scale against AQAP, or any ISIS affiliate should not prevent this market from paying out.
Seems like a rather clear expectation. If I am still a committee member I plan on voting true if there is a peace settlment. There is a long lasting cease fire. Or there are no recent reports of hostilities between the two sides of this conflict. I think the chances of any of those three things happening are sadly pretty low. We will see though.
The way I am viewing this asset is as a bridge to anti war activists that may not be crypto enthusiasts. It is an interesting means of demonstrating the power of BTS while discussing something that non crypto people will have a passion for.