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Messages - clockwork

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196
General Discussion / Re: price feeding review
« on: December 04, 2018, 10:01:17 am »
I agree with @clockwork.
It seems to be an art to find a balance. Certainly we've learned alot from
BSIP42 even though some people in the community declare it a failure
already.

Maybe we can learn the lessons in such a way that it tells us how to use
a dynamic MCR once we have the backend fixed.

Sure...

My suggestion for dynamic adjustment once the backend is fixed is the following:


Set a range and centerpoint for MSSR..

Obviously, MSSR can't go below 100% so if we keep 110 as the "centerpoint", we allow witnesses to manipulate MSSR up to 120%.

This is our first, go to weapon when fighting a premium or discount.

If premium, we reduce MSSR down to 100 to reduce sell pressure and allow DEX price to climb and close premium

If discount, we increase up to 120 to decrease bitUSD supply and close discount.

If we reach either of the limits and STILL in premium or discount, then and ONLY then do we start adjusting the MCR.

Again, let's keep something like 175 as a centerpoint and a range within which we can increase or decrease (say 150-200).

This means that if you keep your collateral above the max end of the range , you know you're safe making the adjustments predictable.

If we go beyond those ranges again, just leave it at those maxiumums or minimums. Behaviour will be the same as we used to have when it comes to premium or discount (sans adjustment) but will happen much less often and within a smaller range.

When "returning" from those maximums or minimums, we do it reversely... bring MCR back to centerpoint and then adjust MSSR afterwards (if still needed)

197
I didn't see any point to  get profit from it, if you have you should do it.
As a trader I will never borrow a cent  if you can make me margin call without  price of BTS change, sometimes even when BTS price increase.

can I manipulate the feed price at will? or any witness can? if I can why I let my accounts be margin called?

I understand that because bsip42 let witnesses feed price following a complex logic, it introduce some uncertainty that make traders do not feel good, so in the newly advised alternative solution witnesses only feed price and premium data, which are easy to verify accurate or not, the negative feedback logic will be done by the system in a low frequency.

the system need negative feedback logic, the rule of original system is far from satisfactory and cannot sustain the dream of Bitshares. and I don't think we can call DEX free market only when we make no change to the rules.
As a trader, I don't care if you can manipulate the price or not.
All I known is that my debt could be margin call even when the price of BTS increase.
Why I need to take this risk? 
You have a good expect, but nobody will play with your in this market rule.

Those were my thoughts as well which is why I suggested limiting the possible dynamic movement of MCR/MSSR.

If you know that MCR will NEVER go above 2.0 for example, you just keep it over 2.0 and be just as safe.

A brief/rough description is here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27360.msg324958#msg324958

198
as some time ago the voting power that oppose BSIP42 overcome that support BSIP42, most of the witnesses return to feed just market price, immediately the BTS/bitCNY price fall about 8%, although more margin call orders are eaten, but:

1. price fall continue, bitCNY holders seems to wait for lower price, no big will to eat current margin call orders.

2. bitCNY has a premium of about 10%, it's a disaster for bitCNY business.

3.more debt position margin called, not obvious margin call quantity reduction.

actually witnesses need to be careful while doing a big change, it is not a good behavior to just change while seeing the voting result - no one host/claim/announce the voting activity, it is likely that some balance owner change lead to this result, please be careful while seeing this!

here I propose to restart BSIP42, with adding some new logic:

1.add the black swan protection logic, ensure feed price >global settlement price*1.11

2.ensure feed price > market price.

3.ensure feed price < market price*MSSR

4. if 1 conflict with 3, ignore 3.

5.tolerate a -2%-1% premium, do not adjust feed price if bitCNY premium is in this interval.

this poll will be regarded successful if it get more voting weight than 1.14.119


(2) only in case of premium imho...

199
General Discussion / Re: please restart BSIP42!!!
« on: November 29, 2018, 08:52:54 am »
as some time ago the voting power that oppose BSIP42 overcome that support BSIP42, most of the witnesses return to feed just market price, immediately the BTS/bitCNY price fall about 8%, although more margin call orders are eaten, but:

1. price fall continue, bitCNY holders seems to wait for lower price, no big will to eat current margin call orders.

2. bitCNY has a premium of about 10%, it's a disaster for bitCNY business.

3.more debt position margin called, not obvious margin call quantity reduction.

actually witnesses need to be careful while doing a big change, it is not a good behavior to just change while seeing the voting result - no one host/claim/announce the voting activity, it is likely that some balance owner change lead to this result, please be careful while seeing this!

now I greatly propose: 
 
1. witnesses please restart BSIP42, however according to what we learn in the past, I suggest to add black swan protection logic, and ensure the feed price is not lower than market price and not higher than market price*MSSR.

You should really announce this part more... it's been people's MAIN grief with bsip42

(although to be honest it probably reduces effectiveness greatly)

200
General Discussion / Re: price feeding review
« on: November 28, 2018, 11:06:46 am »
Increasing MSSR will lower the margin call limit and eat away MORE of the bitUSD supply thus fighting discount without messing with MCR.

Similarly, decreasing MSSR will pull those orders away from market price to an extent thus fighting premium.

I think it should be our first adjustment before messing with MCR.
Please keep in mind that if bitCNY is trading around par value, a big MSSR is only possible to pushes it away, especially when feed price is not adjusted.

if it's trading near par , then hardly any premium/discount exists hence no reason to adjust MSSR.

The whole concept is about it being dynamic to tighten the peg.

Then again BSIP42 is voted out so all this is irrelevant

201
General Discussion / Re: how to revive bitCNY?
« on: November 28, 2018, 10:56:05 am »
positive feedback appear again.

margin called order eaten -> global settlement price come down-> feed price come down->more debt position margin called.

in several hours the margin called orders quantity changed from 70M+ to 90M+. and bitCNY become in premium again.

will it be better to set feed price = max(market price*MSSR, black swan protection price)?
it's just another UI bug when you saw the quantity changed from 70M to 90M
And we don't need to change feed price to market price * MSSR, instead it should be the commiittee's authority to tune the MSSR from 10% to 1% or something else to reduce the premium,
but still need to give some premium offter others help eatern the margin call orders.
MSSR is a price feed parameter which can only be adjusted by witnesses, not the committee.

By the way, the "NO adjust" worker has more votes than the "adjust" worker, according to the BSIP document, witnesses should not feed adjusted price right now.

No adjustment is pretty much instant GS no ?

202
General Discussion / Re: price feeding review
« on: November 28, 2018, 08:32:01 am »
Increasing MSSR will lower the margin call limit and eat away MORE of the bitUSD supply thus fighting discount without messing with MCR.

Similarly, decreasing MSSR will pull those orders away from market price to an extent thus fighting premium.

I think it should be our first adjustment before messing with MCR.

203
General Discussion / Re: Another suggestion to improve bitAsset performance
« on: November 28, 2018, 08:28:42 am »
margin call orders price is higher than market price -  this is the consequence of BSIP42.

we need to consider the next step when bitCNY revive or even bitUSD revive.

in my view, one choice is to replace BSIP42 with the dynamic MCR solution, and feed price will be the real market price.

if feed price be the market price, I believe the margin call orders will always be eaten, only in very seldom scenario the margin call orders will stay there without being eaten.

is it really necessary to introduce more methods to solve the issues that will disappear and increase more complexity?

This is more a case of an emergency measure that will allow debt holders to lower GS price without:
 a) waiting 24h for force settlement
 b) having to buy all orders up to the margin (like you once did back in the day)

At worst it will not be used. Still think it should be an emergency option.

204
General Discussion / Re: Another suggestion to improve bitAsset performance
« on: November 27, 2018, 11:00:04 am »
I believe there are debt owners don't want their positions to be acquired forcefully if their margin calls are hanging far away from market trading price due to price disparity (premium) or adjusted feed. That said, this feature can't please everyone.

By the way, it's been discussed that when there are margin calls hanging, force settlements (as takers) should execute immediately against the margin calls (at MSSP) instead of waiting for 24 hours. Thinking about it more, when there are outstanding force settlements, if a margin call appears, it can match the force settlements immediately.

Need to take target_CR into consideration as well.

In that case they should keep their CR high and not get called

I like the removal of 24h delay too (which is very close to the same thing)

205
The difference in the price feed results from BSIP42, which goal is to create a tight peg of bitCNY to CNY.

To clarify: No bitUSD were converted to BTS during the glocal settlement. People lost their margin positions, which are now owned by the settlement fund. But they still have the same value in BTS as before. Loosing your margin position means you lost your leverage which would kick in when BTS price is rising, you can now bid on the collateral of the settlement fund to get your position back and facilitating the revival.

The node hotfix is indirectly related. There was a bug in the bid_collateral method that allows to revive a globally settled asset, which was pretty much never used so far but now with bitUSD globally settled people started the bidding. I would say the swift reaction of the core team in fixing the bug and getting the chain operational again is a very strong argument pro BTS, and not against. Just like any other Software, a Blockchain can have bugs. Question is how you deal with them.

Cheers,
 Stefan

also...with blocks every 3 seconds and over 45+ distinct operations, its bound to get noticed....if a bitcoin block (and transfer) takes 20 mins to show up, noone bats an eye

206
General Discussion / Re: Global Settlement for BitUSD
« on: November 27, 2018, 07:36:58 am »
3. We're well aware that risks will accumulate if margin calls not being eaten. Although admittedly BSIP42 helped the risk accumulation to an extent, I still believe it's not fully due to BSIP42. Before BSIP42, E.G. on bitcrab's image, bitUSD has a more than 15% premium, to eat the margins which are hanging at -10% you still have to pay quite a bit more than market price.

BTS price limit the smartcoin supply, if the demand overcome the supply, either premium or system risk will arise.

will everything be OK if we adopt the dynamic MCR solution to replace BSIP42? seems not.

in MCR solution, while demand for smartcoin arise, MCR need to be adjusted downwards, say, if MCR reach 1.2, it will be easy to touch black swan if there is rapid fall of BTS price.

Well, if we're in danger of GS and need to adjust feed price to prevent it (as in bitCNY), peg gets broken anyways.

With that in mind, we can simply add limits to the possible extent MCR and MSSR can move.

See here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27360.msg324958#msg324958

This will allow a tighter peg up to an extent. So better than previous situation while still controllable/predictable. Will peg break in extreme circumstances? yes...but it does that anyway.

We can also combine it with this: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27459.0

Which in the form of a penalty will allow us to effectively increase MSSR , without putting pressure in the order books.

207
General Discussion / Re: Another suggestion to improve bitAsset performance
« on: November 26, 2018, 08:31:35 pm »
As discussed on telegram - the same can be achieved by a trader going short and selling into a margin call.

Or at least that *would* be possible if the feed price wasn't manipulated in such a way that margin calls don't happen.
Actually, there is a difference.

Currently, anyone with BTS can put an order above margin calls to prevent sell from matching a margin call - it instead is matched against the order book.
Economically, for sellers of bitAssets, it doesn't make sense to eat margin calls when there are limit orders buying with better price. So essentially we need to find a way to always match margin calls before limit orders, which is against the purpose of MSSR parameter (at least need to find a balance).


On the other hand, OP essentially made it easier to create debt positions, which will encourage borrowing to an extent, which probably may (or may not) accurate more risks. Currently, to eat a margin call, you need to put sufficient collateral in the first place, after eaten you can add the bought asset to collateral, which effectively increases final collateral ratio.

When debt position owners don't close their position even when the price is very low, they either have no money to pay the debt, or just don't care about the collateral anymore. From this perspective, applying more penalty makes little difference.

There are times (like the last few days) where certain traders would gladly pay a little bit extra to be able to buy FROM the margin orders in order to reduce GS price as long as they didn't have to buy all the orders up to the margin.

As far as penalty is concerned, it's more of an incentive for the people to place those bids rather than penalize the shorters.

As I mentioned in group chats, in a perfectly liquid market with perfectly matched DEX/Feed price, the scenario above makes little sense as it is exactly the same as the normal mechanism.

But in certain situations like the last few days combined with lesser liquidity etc. I believe it is an additional tool for us that could be used by some people to help avoid "dangerous" situations.

At worst, simply noone uses it but can be useful at times. Just another weapon in our arsenal against GS

208
General Discussion / Another suggestion to improve bitAsset performance
« on: November 26, 2018, 08:51:43 am »
I would like the input of core Devs on this (especially abit and peter).

How about we allow collateral bidding on under-collateralized ( between 1 and X CR where X is below MCR) positions BEFORE we hit GS?

For the sake of simplicity let's assume feed price is 10BTS/bitUSD.

Lowest collateralised position is 140 BTS collateral for 10 bitUSD (so 1.4)


I can now perform a collateral bid for 10 bitUSD debt , offering 75 BTS.

That position is now closed for the original shorter at feed price, he gets 40 BTS back and I have opened a position for 10 bitUSD with 175BTS collateral.

If we allow "partial" position bidding, many smaller traders can eat away at bad positions.

If we also add a small penalty (possibly dependant on CR/MSSR) we can incentivise traders to bid and shorters to keep their CR high. (so in the example above, original shorter only got 30 BTS back and I only have to bid 65 BTS to take over the position)

I havent had time to completely think it through so please let me know if there is something fundamentally wrong with it.

209
steem has a terrible peg no?

210
General Discussion / Re: price feeding review
« on: November 23, 2018, 11:04:41 am »
I agree with @clockwork.
It seems to be an art to find a balance. Certainly we've learned alot from
BSIP42 even though some people in the community declare it a failure
already.

Maybe we can learn the lessons in such a way that it tells us how to use
a dynamic MCR once we have the backend fixed.

Sure...

My suggestion for dynamic adjustment once the backend is fixed is the following:


Set a range and centerpoint for MSSR..

Obviously, MSSR can't go below 100% so if we keep 110 as the "centerpoint", we allow witnesses to manipulate MSSR up to 120%.

This is our first, go to weapon when fighting a premium or discount.

If premium, we reduce MSSR down to 100 to reduce sell pressure and allow DEX price to climb and close premium

If discount, we increase up to 120 to increase bitUSD supply and close discount.

If we reach either of the limits and STILL in premium or discount, then and ONLY then do we start adjusting the MCR.

Again, let's keep something like 175 as a centerpoint and a range within which we can increase or decrease (say 150-200).

This means that if you keep your collateral above the max end of the range , you know you're safe making the adjustments predictable.

If we go beyond those ranges again, just leave it at those maxiumums or minimums. Behaviour will be the same as we used to have when it comes to premium or discount (sans adjustment) but will happen much less often and within a smaller range.

When "returning" from those maximums or minimums, we do it reversely... bring MCR back to centerpoint and then adjust MSSR afterwards (if still needed)

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