I think once the system has proved robust, it has more utility, it's other advantages, as well as if traditional banking risk factors increase. A BitUSD may be worth more than a normal USD to me.
Is that irrational. Is that not how it works?
These factors are irrelevant to the consensus... Initially shorts will probably be paying interest (by having BitUSD available at a discount) to attract new people (like yourself) to hold BitUSD. However, everyone who recognizes the opportunity to buy BitUSD cheap can get some free gains when it returns to mean. Provided it returns to the mean faster than BTSX climbs in value.
Thanks for the explanation, sure you're right. It still seems in my head that even though you can seed it with a consensus of 1-1, the actual consensus could form around what is a BitUSD worth relative to a $, that will find a mean but not necessarily 1-1.
We will see. The whole thing depends upon robust participation. If we build it, will they come? Hopefully, the marketing is about to kick into high gear. I actually feel more confident now than ever before, given the participation and success thus far with BitShares X. Even with limited features (without the assets that soon will be added), it really is a fine product, and I think a lot of people are discovering that now. And yet, we are going to need more participation. Near the beginning, there should be some exciting volatility, but I expect that to stabilize as it grows. Let's hope, if interest does start to flag at any point, new asset classes (toys) can be added to keep the game rolling. I can see proxies for gold, platinum, silver, oil, and all the agricultural commodity classes as well as the currencies.
The other thing we are going to need is merchants and services who accept BitUSD. Or BTSX. Or BitGLD. Or one or all.