BitShares Forum
Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: karnal on January 21, 2016, 02:52:29 pm
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.. or the only market where sellers are even remotely close to the fair price (settlement price) is BTS:CNY ?
I'd put 4K EUR in CHF, GOLD, SILVER or SGD, maybe even BTC, if the markets were liquid ..
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We are 90% there. Reducing forced settlement to 99% of feed across the board and the lending market will fix this as I have outlined here:
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21099.msg273469.html#msg273469 (https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21099.msg273469.html#msg273469)
and here:
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,20976.msg271612.html#msg271612 (https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,20976.msg271612.html#msg271612)
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Settlement prices are always fair because settlement appears at the price feed .. and has nothing to do with liquidity
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USD:GOLD 24hr Volume 0
USD:BTC 24hr Volume 0
BTC: BTS 24hr Volume 0.05BTC
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Shateholders seem to be scared of trading.
If you don't use it, you will loose it!
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Shateholders seem to be scared of trading.
If you don't use it, you will loose it!
Are you serious? They are not scared. They are just not stupid. How many times do I have to point this out:
(http://i.imgur.com/Lw6qWVp.png)
The risk/reward profile doesn't work. That is why we have seen zero growth in liquidity since the 2.0 launch. Its time to make a change. Reducing forced settlement to 99% of feed and a lending market will fix this and put smartcoin creators in their true role, as lenders.
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Shateholders seem to be scared of trading.
If you don't use it, you will loose it!
Are you serious? They are not scared. They are just not stupid. How many times do I have to point this out:
(http://i.imgur.com/Lw6qWVp.png)
The risk/reward profile doesn't work. That is why we have seen zero growth in liquidity since the 2.0 launch. Its time to make a change. Reducing forced settlement to 99% of feed and a lending market will fix this and put smartcoin creators in their true role, as lenders.
Problem is most people here have never traded or don't understand it... They don't know about the money management factor in trading. Personally I don't think BM has done any trading based on how he designed this system.
Unless he learns something about the needs of traders and then agrees with it, I doubt we will see CNX work on an effective lending market solution.
The dumbest traders I have ever met are crypto traders... They fall for pump and dumps, trade in low liquidity, fall in love with positions, can't admit they are wrong, and basically have no plan at all on when to enter or exit a trade. They shoot from the hip and blow up.
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Settlement prices are always fair because settlement appears at the price feed .. and has nothing to do with liquidity
What I meant is that except for BTS:CNY, the closest offer is light years away from the fair price. Or, if it's more but not too much, it's for $10 worth or something like that. Any significant volume ould end up in a price light years away.
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Problem is most people here have never traded or don't understand it... They don't know about the money management factor in trading. Personally I don't think BM has done any trading based on how he designed this system.
Unless he learns something about the needs of traders and then agrees with it, I doubt we will see CNX work on an effective lending market solution.
I mostly agree. Successful traders develop a different mindset and they know that money management is half the battle. To a successful trader, this is bad money management:
(http://i.imgur.com/Lw6qWVp.png)
So you are not going to attract successful traders who are going to take that kind of risk... and you need successful traders to organically bootstrap liquidity. Otherwise, you will get no liquidity. Once liquidity is bootstrapped, then savers and investors can enter the picture and these markets can grow.
I believe the building blocks are in place... DPOS and a basic market engine. The basic design of smartcoins is sound, with a few tweeks necessary. However, many folks here don't quite seem to get it on a theoretical level. Bts provides many functions, one of which is collateral for smartcoins, which makes the smartcoin creator a lender. The bts owner lends her bts to be used to create smartcoins. Now the question becomes, who does she lend the smartcoins to? The best case is for her to offer to lend them to other peers who can use those smartcoins to trade on leverage with other peers who have also borrowed smartcoins. Then the system works and liquidity grows organically attracting many other types of smartcoin users, but not until then. This is the only way in a derivatives market structured such as this. If she creates them and then sells them, then she is making a bad bet because of the risk/reward profile, unless of course if she charges a high enough premium, which is what we are seeing right now.
Once stealth is implemented, this should be our focus.
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morpheus, you seem like an interesting character. Would you mind telling us a bit more about yourself and you experience? So far I've greatly enjoyed reading your posts.
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Problem is most people here have never traded or don't understand it... They don't know about the money management factor in trading. Personally I don't think BM has done any trading based on how he designed this system.
Unless he learns something about the needs of traders and then agrees with it, I doubt we will see CNX work on an effective lending market solution.
I mostly agree. Successful traders develop a different mindset and they know that money management is half the battle. To a successful trader, this is bad money management:
So you are not going to attract successful traders who are going to take that kind of risk... and you need successful traders to organically bootstrap liquidity. Otherwise, you will get no liquidity. Once liquidity is bootstrapped, then savers and investors can enter the picture and these markets can grow.
I believe the building blocks are in place... DPOS and a basic market engine. The basic design of smartcoins is sound, with a few tweeks necessary. However, many folks here don't quite seem to get it on a theoretical level. Bts provides many functions, one of which is collateral for smartcoins, which makes the smartcoin creator a lender. The bts owner lends her bts to be used to create smartcoins. Now the question becomes, who does she lend the smartcoins to? The best case is for her to offer to lend them to other peers who can use those smartcoins to trade on leverage with other peers who have also borrowed smartcoins. Then the system works and liquidity grows organically attracting many other types of smartcoin users, but not until then. This is the only way in a derivatives market structured such as this. If she creates them and then sells them, then she is making a bad bet because of the risk/reward profile, unless of course if she charges a high enough premium, which is what we are seeing right now.
Once stealth is implemented, this should be our focus.
What do you think about BTS itself being the lender with 1-2% spread up to a daily limit?
People buying Smartcoins increases demand for BTS. BTS also gets the 0.2% trading fee & might even make a profit on the spread.
If the risk profile, gets too high, LiquidUSD can stop accepting new positions.
I think BTS should experiment with at least one liquid Smartcoin product to attract people to BTS and the exchange.
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morpheus, you seem like an interesting character. Would you mind telling us a bit more about yourself and you experience? So far I've greatly enjoyed reading your posts.
I am a systems engineer (mostly networking) turned trader. 90% of all traders fail so it has been a huge feat and I may have failed had it not been for bitcoin, which was a big hit and gave me the capital and experience necessary to become a consistently profitable trader.
So with a background in IT and an interest in finance, bitcoin was the perfect storm and now I believe 2.0 protocols are where the greatest potential is... and bitshares is the closest to producing the 'killer app" that everyone has been looking for. The smartcoin lending market and prediction market (which can also double as a binary options market - perfect for traders) are two of the most promising applications of blockchain technology.
However, its important to understand that this all may not go according to plan and another competitor could take the reins. As a trader, I have been humbled many times when I have been wrong and at times when markets have seemed to consistently go against me, as I believe many here have been humbled by the relentless bear market in bitshares, so it is important to keep things in perspective. However, with a little more work, we could right the ship and be in for a relentless bull market that would dwarf the bear market.
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What do you think about BTS itself being the lender with 1-2% spread up to a daily limit?
People buying Smartcoins increases demand for BTS. BTS also gets the 0.2% trading fee & might even make a profit on the spread.
If the risk profile, gets too high, LiquidUSD can stop accepting new positions.
I think BTS should experiment with at least one liquid Smartcoin product to attract people to BTS and the exchange.
I like the idea of pure p2p lending better, if it can work that way. Anything that decentralizes control or at least appears to be more decentralized.
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Shateholders seem to be scared of trading.
If you don't use it, you will loose it!
Are you serious? They are not scared. They are just not stupid. How many times do I have to point this out:
(http://i.imgur.com/Lw6qWVp.png)
The risk/reward profile doesn't work. That is why we have seen zero growth in liquidity since the 2.0 launch. Its time to make a change. Reducing forced settlement to 99% of feed and a lending market will fix this and put smartcoin creators in their true role, as lenders.
It's amazing how a simple statement can extract very useful information.
Shareholders should be talking this into account when voting or setting a proxy.
I will put this forward as a question in today's mumble.