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General Discussion / Re: What are odds that BTC goes so low that large mining ops turn the switch off ?
« on: January 05, 2015, 10:22:22 pm »DanV, as well as multiple other elliotwave chartists that I follow, are predicting a low in the 200-250 range, a couple months from now. It is a good count, and a pretty reasonable prediction, imo.
There is a massive difference between the $200-250 range, and $50. The ultra bearish attitude that many of you here have towards bitcoin hurts our perception in the eyes of bitcoiners, imo. If you want someone who is interested in bitcoin to become interested in bitshares, the absolute WORST thing you can do is tell them that bitcoin is going to $50.
Far better would be to predict something like 'while Bitcoin goesover $1000 in the next bull run, Bitshares will go to $1. While Bitcoin goes up 10x, Bitshares will go up 100x'. This indicates Bitshares potential to massively increase in value while not immediately prejudicing them against you and evoking a hostile reaction by telling them the thing that the most idiot troll bears have been telling them for months.
If you would all be less hostile towards bitcoin, it would help us gain better adoption among the current crypto community.
I'm not being hostile to bitcoin, I hope it doesn't do that, a rising tide lifts all boats. I'm just saying it's a possibility. Lower 200s could well end up being the bottom, that seems more likely. But what if the Winklvoss ETF is a flop? Everyone's holding out for that, if demand for it is underwhelming $50 is a real possibility.
Look at the yahoo stock chart price from the dot com bubble, it's insane (all time chart)
https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=NASDAQ:YHOO&sa=X&ei=UAyrVNivLMrgavKsgegG&ved=0CCUQ2AE
It went from $108 to $4.30 in 2 years.
There no reason to believe bitcoin wont behave like that.
I thought I saw a long video where Danv tentatively predicted a crash that could be even lower than a low 200s, he might not have done, it was months ago that I watched it I can't remember.
Who knows maybe the winklevos ETF will be a big success and everyone will start holding bitcoin. It's perfectly possible there will be more bubbles and gradually more adoption, that sounds like the most likely scenario to me. The blockchain.info chart of the number of transactions has been growing nicely (apart from a recent slump, perhaps due to the holiday season) https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=.
I'm just speculating that it's possible the last '2 bubbles' were actually 1 bubble, in which case it has more popping to do.
(sorry gamey for derailing your thread somewhat)