You believe because one side gets margin-called and has to actively maintain collateral that that creates a premium. I don't believe that.
With respect, you're wrong. I can prove it:
Lets call the risk of getting margin called
Rm and the risk of a black swan
Rb. Now, each of these risks has a probability associated with it (call them
Pm and
Pb)... Even if they are very difficult to quantify, we can say with certainty that
Pm >
Pb at all times.
Equilibrium price in the bitUSD market is the feed price. When I borrow bitUSD from the market I take on
Rm. When I buy bitUSD from the market I take on
Rb. If I borrow bitUSD and then sell it at the feed price, I'm saying
Rm == Rb, which is obviously a false assumption. If we know that
Pm>Pb at all times, then as a rational trader I must sell by borrowed bitUSD greater than the feed price, to make sure I satisfy
Pm>Pb.