Oct 13th: Predicting BTS Price At 2.0 "LIFTOFF"

[Tuck Fheman]

Why would people with big money use Bitshares if it doesn't have the features they need?

I only use BitShares because it makes me look cool. My friends think I'm a lot cooler than I used to be when I used Bitcoin. So I can't argue with results like that! 

[Tuck Fheman]

Odd, no one guessed 2200. 

[xeroc]

As long as there is no genesis and seed node published .. the repo is "worthless"

[devlux]

Features aren't what increases market cap. You do need a functional Bitshares 2.0 which can scale but once you have that you need people with big money to use Bitshares.

Why would people with big money use Bitshares if it doesn't have the features they need?

Bitcoin doesn't have many features but has a market cap in the billions with VCs lining up along with banks and ETFs.

Market cap has more to do with adoption than features. Over time if people move to decentralized exchanges that will favor Bitshares. But then you have to convince people with a lot of money that decentralized exchanges have some advantage over the Bitcoin ETF.

Compliance is important. Make it easy for people to comply with the law and Bitshares has a chance.

Bitcoin has been going down for months now and it's not a coincidence. Except for a drug market it doesn't have much real world usage. Most people are just speculating with the price and not really using it. It has a big market cap only because it was first and everybody knows it. But it will continue to shrink unless somebody finds useful applications for it.

That's why I think there has to be a better blockchain with more useful features if we want to see a cryptorevolution. People with big money are usually more careful with their investments and are not going to put their money to a project that is only massively hyped without any proofs that it will create real value.

A lot of projects including several I'm involved in are in a holding pattern waiting for the 2.0 launch.  It's simple really.  The tech is effectively unpublished.  Sure I can go to github and read the source code and hammer out what the API "might" look like.  However there is no way to test that and frankly unless someone documents it I'm not going to rely on reading the source code since documentation boils down to "we made it do this and it's official", vs some programmer's comments on a feature that may or may not be transient.

According to the countdown timer there are 10 hours left.  I'm still not seeing an official release of code at the normal github, but managed to stumble on this.  https://github.com/bitshares/bitshares-2  looks official to me, but I don't know for certain that it is the final resting place of the released code base.  Logically it stands to reason that it is, but I'm always suspect until I see something stated officially by the devs.

[Blazin8888]

Since I wrote that post a couple days ago, the market cap has climbed by $4M.  I think the "investors" I referred to in that earlier post are the ones coming into BTS now because they recognize VALUE.  My goodness...BTS is the best crypto there and IMHO hugely under valued. 

So let me just share with all that read this post that "the (BTS) train is leaving the station" so you'd better get on board now as $.04/share is just around the bend.

Sorry buddy but we wont see a 0.04 price for a long time. I doubt this year even.

[TanFan]

Since I wrote that post a couple days ago, the market cap has climbed by $4M.  I think the "investors" I referred to in that earlier post are the ones coming into BTS now because they recognize VALUE.  My goodness...BTS is the best crypto there and IMHO hugely under valued. 

So let me just share with all that read this post that "the (BTS) train is leaving the station" so you'd better get on board now as $.04/share is just around the bend.

[Samupaha]

Features aren't what increases market cap. You do need a functional Bitshares 2.0 which can scale but once you have that you need people with big money to use Bitshares.

Why would people with big money use Bitshares if it doesn't have the features they need?

Bitcoin doesn't have many features but has a market cap in the billions with VCs lining up along with banks and ETFs.

Market cap has more to do with adoption than features. Over time if people move to decentralized exchanges that will favor Bitshares. But then you have to convince people with a lot of money that decentralized exchanges have some advantage over the Bitcoin ETF.

Compliance is important. Make it easy for people to comply with the law and Bitshares has a chance.

Bitcoin has been going down for months now and it's not a coincidence. Except for a drug market it doesn't have much real world usage. Most people are just speculating with the price and not really using it. It has a big market cap only because it was first and everybody knows it. But it will continue to shrink unless somebody finds useful applications for it.

That's why I think there has to be a better blockchain with more useful features if we want to see a cryptorevolution. People with big money are usually more careful with their investments and are not going to put their money to a project that is only massively hyped without any proofs that it will create real value.

[luckybit]

Features aren't what increases market cap. You do need a functional Bitshares 2.0 which can scale but once you have that you need people with big money to use Bitshares.

Why would people with big money use Bitshares if it doesn't have the features they need?

Bitcoin doesn't have many features but has a market cap in the billions with VCs lining up along with banks and ETFs.

Market cap has more to do with adoption than features. Over time if people move to decentralized exchanges that will favor Bitshares. But then you have to convince people with a lot of money that decentralized exchanges have some advantage over the Bitcoin ETF.

Compliance is important. Make it easy for people to comply with the law and Bitshares has a chance.

[betax]

It will have a spike on release, but not big. Then when all the extra features that are on hold are released, it will then jump back to the levels of last year, or might be the openledger integration.. whomever comes first. Then it will be stable for a while, until referrals etc start doing their bit.

[Samupaha]

Features aren't what increases market cap. You do need a functional Bitshares 2.0 which can scale but once you have that you need people with big money to use Bitshares.

Why would people with big money use Bitshares if it doesn't have the features they need?

[Riverhead]

I will have the same, as the OP-er, please.

Make it a double.

[luckybit]

Features aren't what increases market cap. You do need a functional Bitshares 2.0 which can scale but once you have that you need people with big money to use Bitshares.

Tell some of your rich friends about Bitshares. Give them some Bitshares out of your own stash to get them to try it. Marketing has to appeal to high net worth individuals outside of crypto.

[Stan]

What new features will 2.0 have that will make it better. And will crude oil be a pegged asset that will be up and running soon? I am anxious for being able to trade in crude oil.

The front page at BitShares.org summarizes many of the new features.

[Akado]

What new features will 2.0 have that will make it better. And will crude oil be a pegged asset that will be up and running soon? I am anxious for being able to trade in crude oil.

https://bitshares.org/technology/

[tooncesthedrivingcat]

What new features will 2.0 have that will make it better. And will crude oil be a pegged asset that will be up and running soon? I am anxious for being able to trade in crude oil.

[Ander]

I believe the possibility to see a rally similar to the one that moved btc from $20 to $260 is high

Or the one from $2 to $260

[chryspano]

I believe the possibility to see a rally similar to the one that moved btc from $20 to $260 is high

Mostly we need a "reliable" bitshares 2.0 working with no problems, this alone can push us to the moon and beyond.




If we can't have a stable working bitshares 2.0 then we will probably stay at 15M-30M. 

[EstefanTT]

... and 7748 for me muah ha ha ha   

[Ander]

7750 sats. I have to stick with it. 

Then I must dump at 7749! Haha! 

[Tuck Fheman]

7750 sats. I have to stick with it. 

[luckybit]

Probably not much higher than 1 cent. I do think we can reach 1 cent but I'm not sure it can be maintained.

There just isn't a lot of money coming into crypto. Even Bitcoin is seeing everyone cashing out of it and until the next Bitcoin bubble there might not be a flood of money going into altcoins.

That isn't to say Bitshares isn't going to go up, but it will probably happen very slowly, a slow grind rather than a steep liftoff. It could take over a year to get to 08 cent in these markets and that is with steady growth.

On the other hand you never know when the next Bitcoin bubble could be. If there is another bubble then the price could reach 50 cents or even a dollar.  My guess is there will not be a bubble in 2015 and that the entire crypto market will continue to see price declines just like we saw in 2014. I would think of course there will be a spike in the price which may last for a few months but to sustain it would require the marketing campaign be a major success and specifically not on the American side but in China and other countries. I think Americans have run out of money for crypto at this time due to the fact that mining is so centralized now that the profits are also centralized which means less miners who can trade.

[TanFan]

Actually I am not interested in "fantasizing" about the price... I'm just curious as to what this informed Community anticipates that the "market forces" will do to the price.  Seems to me that 2.0 represents such a turning point in terms of the actual attainment of a mega target.  To me, accomplishing that is a "game changer" and changes how BTS will be viewed and who buys it.  Other announcements provide exciting potential for the future but the release of 2.0 changes everything instantly.

Perhaps my target price is way overly optimistic.  However, I didn't write the post to be a cheerleader or pump up anything but rather to get a sense of what the community thinks.  A couple responses opened my eyes to some things I had not considered.  STILL, I believe that speculators will start to be out numbered by prudent investors and users that will recognize BTS as the best technology with the brightest future.  When that happens, yes, I think the market cap makes a MAJOR move higher.

[CLains]

70 million, then fall down to 35 - steady around 25-30 for a few moths after that, depending on BTC and progress.

[Ander]

Too much fantasizing about the future price right now it seems.

I've seen both sides -- conservative-minded folks saying the price will probably top out at $15 million, and dreamers looking forward to $150 million. Logic would therefore dictate the correct answer is -- $70 million.

 

By this logic, if I dream that bitshares will reach 10 billion dollars, does that mean that logic would dictate the correct answer is an average at 5 billion?

I dont think thats how it works.

[nomoreheroes7]

Too much fantasizing about the future price right now it seems.

I've seen both sides -- conservative-minded folks saying the price will probably top out at $15 million, and dreamers looking forward to $150 million. Logic would therefore dictate the correct answer is -- $70 million.

 

[Ander]

Too much fantasizing about the future price right now it seems.

[mf-tzo]

I think that by Oct 13th we should see a market cap of $40 mil at least but due to less investments in crypto $25 - $30 mil maybe more realistic.

I think that by end of H1 2016 when FED will still have kept zero rates, ECB QEs, bitcoin has solved its identity crisis, BTS referals and utilities work as charm and people realize what a messed up world we live and more money come into crypto BTS will have a market cap of at least $200 mil

[lil_jay890]

I highly doubt it will be over it's all time high anytime in the next 6 months for a couple reasons.

1.  There is a lot less money and a lot more projects in the crypto world than  this time last year.  The pie has shrunk and BTSX was probably pumped  to that high to generate interest by a few, I'm guessing chinese, investors.   China is gone now, so the pump won't be that high.

2.  Ever heard of "buy the rumor, sell the fact"?  People are buying to rumor now, will they continue and "buy the fact".

3.  Play, Identabit, Lotto, Muse, and especially Vote are nowhere near completion.  A lot can change and I'm guessing half those projects will fizzle or not see the light of day.  See Sparkle.

The biggest thing we have going for us is OpenLedger.  That's what will bring the most money in.  You can already see how the announcement brought 100k worth of investments into BTS through CCEDK.  This was done via BTS/USD, not BTS/BTC, which indicates new dollars flowing into our ecosystem.

Also remember the supply of BTS has increased from BTSX.  The merger created 500 million more shares and these are continually vesting and causing downward pressure.

My guess is we hit 25million market cap 1 month after launch.  We hold around there for the rest of the year.

[tonyk]

I will have the same, as the OP-er, please.

[JA]

damn son
dont need porn, i can just read your stuff 

but yea i'm not that optimistic maybe 0.03$  at the start. after that it all depends on how smoooth erveything works.

abd this thread will probably be moved

[TanFan]

In terms of BTS price, I am curious as to what this Community anticipates what value "the market" will give to BTS at Bitshares 2.0 launch.  I ask the reader of this to consider that earlier all time high price of over $.04 ( which translated to a market capitalization of over $100,000,000 ) was back at a time when so much about Bitshares technology was speculation and lofty goals.  ByteMaster and his Team did their best to lay out a BTS roadmap in terms of its features and capabilities and it seems that not only have they succeeded it attaining those, but they have taken all of this to an even higher level.  Just consider what Graphene has meant in terms of flat out awesome technology, but also, all of the spin offs in terms of these other initiates, PLAY, IDENTIBIT, LOTTO, MUSE, VOTE, etc, etc, etc.

ByteMaster and Team are delivering on their promises...they have walked the walk....they have done so with impeccable openness, dedication, and honesty.  They will be delivering to the world this great new blockchain technology that WILL change the world and provide a referral system that will drive adoption.  After that, the masses will learn of power of Bitshares 2.0.

So I raise the question to this Comminity (and the world) just what will the value of BTS be on 2.0 launch day? What could it be?  WHAT SHOULD IT BE? 

I will go first by suggesting that WHO SELL NOW with the FINISH line in sight, or should a say, the START line in sight?  What "investor" would sell now?  Those individual that aren't investors, but have a day trader mentality, will get run over by a wave of true investors and everyday users who buy BTS 2.0 for its value, functionality, and growth potential.

So I will anticipate that on October 13th, the price of BTS WILL BE DOUBLE ITS ALL TIME HIGH.  So I'm predicting the price will be at .08 each and a market cap over $200,000,000.  A week later, $.10/BTS.

What do YOU think the price will be and WHY?