Now that we have
two FBAs on presale it is a good time to think how to decide how much value an FBA might have. This is to help you to decide how much you should bid if you want to invest in FBA.
Let's take STEALTH as an example.
STEALTH will get 80 % of transaction fee for stealth transfer. Fee will be three times normal transfer. If we keep the $0.20 fee for normal transfers, it will mean that stealth transfer fee is going to be $0.60 (but this could obviously change if the committee decides otherwise). Owners of STEALTH will get 0.8 * $0.60 = $0.48 per every stealth transfer.
Let's say somebody wants to buy 100 000 STEALTH, which will be 10 % of total amount of one million. Every time a user makes a stealth transfer, this person will get 0.1 * $0.48 = $0.048.
How much he should pay for the 100 000 STEALTH? It depends how much he expects people will use stealth transfers and how long the feature will be used until it is replaced with something else.
Let's say that the risk being replaced will rise significantly after three years. Three years is a long time in cryptoscene and propably during that somebody will invent something better than stealth transfers and it will be accepted in the Bitshares blockchain. So the investment should be made back in that time.
How much people will use this feature? First it'll be only a few transfers per day, but eventually it might be tens of thousands. Let's say it will be on average 3000 transfers per day during the first three years.
Now we can calculate the value of the investment: $0.48 * 0.1 * 3000 * 365 * 3 = $157680
If the investor can get 100 000 STEALTH for less than $157680 (1.5768 USD/STEALTH), this will be profitable investment.
Cryptonomex will produce the stealth transfer feature for $45000 so we can calculate the starting price. $45000 / 1000000 STEALTH = 0.045 USD/STEALTH
Original investor will get all one million STEALTH. If this example is close to what will happen in the future, he will get big profits from this. He could sell 10 % for $45000 for somebody and break even instantly. Everything after that will be profit without any risk. Buyer of the 10 % stake will have risk, but the expected profit is still very big.
So far all presale bids have been made to STEALTH:BTS markets, but this has one negative side: you have to keep an eye on price of BTS and change your bid accordingly. Because BTS is still very volatile, it's better to calculate the value of an FBA in some fiat currency such as USD. This is why I recommend that bidding for an FBA should be made in USD (or CNY or EUR) markets. It will be simpler to calculate potential profits. Of course, if you have a bot that will make the bidding for you, it doesn't matter what currency you use because the bot can change bids instantly when prices change.