I have read the thread on truthcoin before. The views of some individuals is that PM's must be binary or PM's must have an ending point. That is narrow minded and does not serve to truly test the limits of free markets. If you do not wish to call bitshares a prediction market because it does not explicitly incorporate the probability of an outcome than you can refer to it as an information market, since the market for bitAssets is truly relaying real world information to the DAC that would otherwise have to be collected in a centralized fashion. I believe that bitshares will actually be more accurate than other prediction markets as it is very simple to track the price of these real world assets relative to bts (at least more simple than coming up with the probability of an occurrence). The information will already be provided by the same exchanges that trade btc and altcoins today. It would be illogical for anyone to trade within the system in a manner that is not in accordance with evident price outside of the system. At first most of the trades within bitshares x will probably mimic the trades in the centralized exchanges, but after a while it may bay the trades outside of the system that mimic those within it, as the more informed trades realize they can make more money exchanging value with bitassets than they can with real assets.
If you are concerned that bitshares will not work, think about it this way. Bitshares will be traded like bitcoin and other altcoins in a very speculative way. Speculation coupled with uncertainty leads to volatility. When the price of bitcoin seems like its about to go down, even some of the most enthusiastic supporters will sell bitcoin for other currencies that will appreciate relative to it in the short term. However, in the case of bitshares, when ppl are uncertain that a current high valuation of bitshares is unwarranted, instead of selling off bts and driving down the price on centralized exchanges they will simply retain/increase their stake in the network by buying bitAssets. When ppl buy more bitassets it temporarily might drive down the price of bts relative to that bitassets, but in creating more bitassets that person is simultaneously bolstering the utility of the network as a store of value which should ultimately be reflected in the price of bts. I'm not even sure that increased demand for bitassets would drive down the price of bts on external central exchanges. These notions are all theoretical, but I would say that the odds are on our side.
If these ideas do not work in practice it would not only be a set back for us early investors, it would be a set back for all mankind. I think we need to realize that our economic climate has changed and we need to create more information based jobs. We have become overly efficient in the primary, secondary and now tertiary sectors of the economy. So much so that our economy can no longer distribute income. If we are going to progress as a species we must understand that capital is not limited to physical resources, but is also created though information and knowledge. Some people would argue that capitalism cannot solve most of the world most pressing problems such as world hunger. But I would argue that we have not seen capitalism or free markets in their full capacity. Derivatives will change our economic systems in such a way that is entirely unprecedented. I cannot say for sure how far reaching this technology will be, but I at least know in my heart that it will change the world for the better.