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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: bytemaster on November 20, 2014, 07:21:48 pm

Title: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: bytemaster on November 20, 2014, 07:21:48 pm
Some people have noticed (by tracking delegate votes) that millions of BTS which were voting for the current delegates have recently moved. 

As some of you may know I help manage the funds of a few whales so the actions you see that mirror AGS voting are not necessarily AGS funds.

Non-AGS funds which have following my voting patterns have been moved into Short / Buy orders in the BitUSD market to take advantage of the opportunity to sell some BitUSD (read buy BTS) when the individual who is short $760K is forced to cover some time next week (or sooner if this down trend continues).   

AGS funds are still mostly untouched with a total of ~95 million BTS.




Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: Vizzini on November 20, 2014, 08:47:30 pm
Translation: Buy, buy, buy!
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: sumantso on November 20, 2014, 08:48:02 pm
I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: biophil on November 20, 2014, 08:50:37 pm
I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

How would you get that from "Non-AGS funds which have following my voting patterns have been moved ... to sell some BitUSD (read buy BTS)." He's buying BTS. He's interpreting the current market conditions as a good time to buy.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: Ander on November 20, 2014, 08:51:04 pm
I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: zerosum on November 20, 2014, 08:56:19 pm
 2 quick questions if you do not mind BM. I do not find them inappropriate, but if you do, simply disregard them BM.

1.Aren't the BTC donated to AGS and later sold for BTS(X) considered part of the AGS fund? By the 94 mil number it does not seem to be the case.
2.How many of those BTC still need to be converted to BTS?
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: sumantso on November 20, 2014, 08:56:47 pm
I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: biophil on November 20, 2014, 09:00:02 pm
I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.

No, because some have to close because they're about to expire.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: zerosum on November 20, 2014, 09:00:58 pm
I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that big short holder will have to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses, and BM also includes the market conditions that will make such a move more likely.[It is not very likely for his cover order to be triggered as it is @ about 90 BTS/BitUSD  (0.0111 bitUSD/BTS)]
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: biophil on November 20, 2014, 09:03:41 pm
I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that he will has to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses.

Except that I am fairly certain that person shorted to himself, which means he has the bitUSD sitting around already to cover with. Which means I believe the impact on the market will be minimal.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: graffenwalder on November 20, 2014, 09:10:50 pm
Why not set a good example and put in a bit of interest?

I see about 50 million collateral at 0% interest.

Wouldn't a bit of interest make bitusd more appealing and thus BTS more also?
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: bytemaster on November 20, 2014, 09:11:49 pm

I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that he will has to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses.

Except that I am fairly certain that person shorted to himself, which means he has the bitUSD sitting around already to cover with. Which means I believe the impact on the market will be minimal.

Except I know for a fact that he is really short at least 250 K usd.  Because I know people that collectively hold over 400k usd  and there are only 900k bit usd. 
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: biophil on November 20, 2014, 09:15:07 pm

I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that he will has to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses.

Except that I am fairly certain that person shorted to himself, which means he has the bitUSD sitting around already to cover with. Which means I believe the impact on the market will be minimal.

Except I know for a fact that he is really short at least 250 K usd.  Because I know people that collectively hold over 400k usd  and there are only 900k bit usd.

How nice it must be to know these things!
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: Ander on November 20, 2014, 09:17:24 pm
So essentially, there is a person out there who went margin long somewhere between $250k and $750k worth of BTS, depending on how much he shorted to himself.  (That would be something like 15 to 50 million BTS).  Divide by 3 due to collateral, to show how many shares of BTS he was essentially long on margin.

And he is going to get a margin call in a few days, or have to cover before it happens.

And bytemaster is going to use these funds to buy the low that is created by this margin call.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: bytemaster on November 20, 2014, 09:17:32 pm

2 quick questions if you do not mind BM. I do not find them inappropriate, but if you do, simply disregard them BM.

1.Aren't the BTC donated to AGS and later sold for BTS(X) considered part of the AGS fund? By the 94 mil number it does not seem to be the case.
2.How many of those BTC still need to be converted to BTS?

1. is true, but those funds are a separate wallet as I didn't manage the sale. 

2. We stopped buying bts long ago. 
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: arhag on November 20, 2014, 09:31:41 pm
So essentially, there is a person out there who went margin long somewhere between $250k and $750k worth of BTS, depending on how much he shorted to himself.  (That would be something like 15 to 50 million BTS).  Divide by 3 due to collateral, to show how many shares of BTS he was essentially long on margin.

And he is going to get a margin call in a few days, or have to cover before it happens.

No, he is saying that big short holder will have to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses, and BM also includes the market conditions that will make such a move more likely.[It is not very likely for his cover order to be triggered as it is @ about 90 BTS/BitUSD  (0.0111 bitUSD/BTS)]

Tonyk, see what I mean when I say it is not really fair to say your shorting strategy is conservative? If the USD price of BTS stays the same for the next 6 days, then this whale shorter is going to be forced to cover with a 33% drop in price of BTS. At no time during the last 24 days was there an opportunity to cover and reshort to compound gains at a BitUSD/BTS price above $0.0225. This means it is very likely that this whale will lose 2.5 to 7.5 million BTS because of this process (or 16% of their stake). I'm not saying you can't make a lot of money shorting BitUSD, but I just don't think it is fair to call it a conservative investment strategy.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: zerosum on November 20, 2014, 09:45:19 pm
So essentially, there is a person out there who went margin long somewhere between $250k and $750k worth of BTS, depending on how much he shorted to himself.  (That would be something like 15 to 50 million BTS).  Divide by 3 due to collateral, to show how many shares of BTS he was essentially long on margin.

And he is going to get a margin call in a few days, or have to cover before it happens.

No, he is saying that big short holder will have to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses, and BM also includes the market conditions that will make such a move more likely.[It is not very likely for his cover order to be triggered as it is @ about 90 BTS/BitUSD  (0.0111 bitUSD/BTS)]

Tonyk, see what I mean when I say it is not really fair to say your shorting strategy is conservative? If the USD price of BTS stays the same for the next 6 days, then this whale shorter is going to be forced to cover with a 33% drop in price of BTS. At no time during the last 24 days was there an opportunity to cover and reshort to compound gains at a BitUSD/BTS price above $0.0225. This means it is very likely that this whale will lose 2.5 to 7.5 million BTS because of this process (or 16% of their stake). I'm not saying you can't make a lot of money shorting BitUSD, but I just don't think it is fair to call it a conservative investment strategy.
I have already set aside the 55K BTS to run this experiment. Granted I started several weeks after our favorite whale here, but my fund is in red also. I will publish every transaction after  BTS hits $2.5 a piece and  the fund is closed.
And I still consider this fairly conservative strategy... maybe I am too risk tolerant.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: Ander on November 20, 2014, 09:47:13 pm
Shorting bitUSD is definitely not a conservative strategy.

I personally will not do it because i have been burned by margin in the past, and will never use it again.  At times like the present, I simply keep buying as many shares as I can as I get new money, and hold, without the need to worry about margin calls. 

Nothing can ever take my BTS away from me.  It could go to zero, but you are not getting my BTS unless the price goes back up to prices I am willing to sell at again. 

With a potential margin call I cannot use this strategy of averaging in during periods where the price is dropping. 
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: arhag on November 20, 2014, 09:48:56 pm
I have already set aside the 55K BTS to run this experiment. Granted I started several weeks after our favorite whale here, but my fund is in red also. I will publish every transaction after  BTS hits $2.5 a piece and  the fund is closed.

Sounds good. But why wait until $2.5 to publish? Could be quite a while before we get there.
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: zerosum on November 20, 2014, 09:55:07 pm
I have already set aside the 55K BTS to run this experiment. Granted I started several weeks after our favorite whale here, but my fund is in red also. I will publish every transaction after  BTS hits $2.5 a piece and  the fund is closed.

Sounds good. But why wait until $2.5 to publish? Could be quite a while before we get there.

No, I have decided on all my operations to be closed doors for the foreseeable future. 
Title: Re: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS
Post by: Ander on November 20, 2014, 09:58:35 pm
I think its smart to not give away your trading strategy before it happens.

Just look at the good elliot wave chartists on bitcointalk.  Ryan closed his trading thread because whenever he would post, whales would use the information against him, and then chessnut started seeing the same thing once his thread got going strong. 

There is some guy in there who has been posting about his margin position.  He gets a margin call if bitocin hits $341 apparently.  How much do you want to bet that bitcoin will briefly hit $340.99 and screw him over, and then go back up?  Whales just love to fuck over new traders like that and profit from their margin calls.