Is anyone considering the risk that this release is a test and might be reset any time?
What are your thoughts on the probability of that happening?
If I were a betting man... I would guess at least 50/50 chance which means the initial price should be significantly discounted, however, within the first week the odds of a reset will drop dramatically and after a month it will be likely not require a reset. My intent is to fail quickly, fix it, and then restart it. Any resets in March will use the same snapshot. Any resets in April will use a snapshot on March 31.
So only true gamblers looking to make a nice profit (or huge loss) will be speculating in the first few days... This is why I recommend everyone only trade 'on chain'... you can trade assuming the chain will work, if it fails then no one gains and no one loses. If it works then it is for keeps.
If you trade with someone off chain... well, that is just risky.