And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.
50% pullback over how long? 1 hour? That's fine...
Regarding the collateral requirements, what is the response to this fair point from someone on bter.com:QuoteAnd it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.
This seems to be the biggest argument for why the market peg wont work.
And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'
Well this is what many people expect, and they have a fair point. All Ive heard so far in response is that people just "hope" its not going to happen.
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)
QuoteAnd it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.
Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.
There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.
BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.
The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.
Bter has added a BitUSD to USD market... once this has active bids going then users who only want out temporarily can have more confidence that BitUSD is liquid and convertible. This will remove a major source of selling pressure on exchanges.For real .. awesome
QuoteAnd it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.
Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.
There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.
BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.
The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.
It certainly could, but it probably wont. Marketing would determine that as well as other factors.
The two chokepoints which are our bottlenecks are getting value into the ecosystem and having a way to get value out. We have found one way to get value in through fiat -> Coinbase -> Bter -> BTSX for example but it's not very efficient. Minebitshares is an attempt to solve this problem by bringing value in through mining but we need more on-ramps into the ecosystem.
If any of you can think of ways to create these on-ramps in and then the gateways out ASAP then it is possible we could have a market cap in the billions before the end of the year. If you can't get value in and out (value is distinct from money), then that limits the growth rate of our business.
I may have a lot of ideas but I don't have the resources to start businesses. Someone who does have the resources can use me as an advisor along with other creative thinkers in the community so we can push forward. If you want to see it happen and you have the resources to build a gateway service then crowd fund yourself like how Invictus did and recruit whoever you need from the community to make it happen.
If value flows from BTC to bitBTC as described above, won't the price of BTC crash? and the peg take down bitBTC with it?
Looks like a 20% correction. Yay.looks more like a 35% atm :(
I hate how captivated i am by the stupid btsx price. I think everyone was waiting for someone to flinch. The question is now whether there is enough underlying value for it to pick back up. Of course, there is :)Looks like a 20% correction. Yay.looks more like a 35% atm :(
Looks like a 20% correction. Yay.looks more like a 35% atm :(
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)
Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.
Well I still confused by lot of the BitUSD trading. BM, any chances of a layman video? And from the looks of it, there is a huge - 100k bet that BTSX will have trouble crossing 1.3 $/BTSX barrier.
Yeah most likely. Though my confusion is arising from this fact. My 1.3 calculation is derived by current BTSX price in USD X price of BTSX/BITUSD == 0.038439 * 33.33 = 1.28Well I still confused by lot of the BitUSD trading. BM, any chances of a layman video? And from the looks of it, there is a huge - 100k bet that BTSX will have trouble crossing 1.3 $/BTSX barrier.
Any bets that far out are likely to be canceled long before we hit that price.
`Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)
Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.
if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.
Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.
What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.
ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).
All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.
Kind of a Hotel California scenario.
`Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)
Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.
if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.
Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.
What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.
ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).
All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.
Kind of a Hotel California scenario.
The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.
`Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)
Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.
if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.
Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.
What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.
ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).
All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.
Kind of a Hotel California scenario.
The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.
We need to fix some bugs prior to that push... but yes, we have proven the basic capability.Yhea
The bitshares wallet is rather buggy at the moment. It crashes every 5-10 mins..main reason I'm keeping my btsx in the exchange.
`Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.
Apologies, my post could have been clearer.
When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.
With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.
So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.
This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.
Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.
At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)
Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.
if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.
Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.
What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.
ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).
All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.
Kind of a Hotel California scenario.
The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.
When people realize they can buy and sell any asset on a decentralized exchange with low fees and negligible counter party risk (ie. exchange default) trading volume will migrate to the X exchange (good for BTSX shareholders) and trade value will migrate to bitAssets (also good for BTSX shareholders).
At this point the tech has proven viable and we now all we need is a marketing push to bring liquidity....
we urgently need bitBTC as well, BTC is looking awfully bullish ..
we urgently need bitBTC as well, BTC is looking awfully bullish ..
+5% I agree completely
A 50% drop is ok if shorts have time to adjust their positions. The only time it is not ok is if the price drops so fast that there is insufficient collateral and the insurance fund is exhausted.But isn't the margin called automatically which would prevent uncovered BitUSD?
The collateral issue only has a negative effect if the drop in BTSX value happens so fast that the margin can not be called automatically, correct? How quick would that have to be?
Also I strongly believe no more than 3 markets should be operating until liquidity improves and more people start using bitshares in general.
Also I strongly believe no more than 3 markets should be operating until liquidity improves and more people start using bitshares in general.
I agree. USD, BTC, CNY are the only markets that I believe there is enough interest in to trade right now. Once tools and user base is established we can grow to more, but software needs to be more robust first.
+5% ........I don't want this to come off the wrong way but it was a shockingly smooth launch for bitUSD. I expected more well issues. Updates were very fast and taking the way the market was paused was very clever. Even with the price drop I feel even better then before about where this is heading.Also I strongly believe no more than 3 markets should be operating until liquidity improves and more people start using bitshares in general.
I agree. USD, BTC, CNY are the only markets that I believe there is enough interest in to trade right now. Once tools and user base is established we can grow to more, but software needs to be more robust first.
+5% Btw I'm very impressed with how the market is performing at the moment.. the consensus market is tracking bitUSD to USD surprisingly well with current volumes. My confidence in the platform is even higher than it was which is saying a lot. Keep up the excellent work, fellow stakeholders! 8)
+5% ........I don't want this to come off the wrong way but it was a shockingly smooth launch for bitUSD. I expected more well issues. Updates were very fast and taking the way the market was paused was very clever. Even with the price drop I feel even better then before about where this is heading.+5% +5% +5% +5% +5%
Even though there is a HUGE party happening inside! They'll just walk on by and go to some crapcoin and potentially invest there.