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Messages - Empirical1

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121
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD Trading Guide
« on: August 19, 2014, 03:59:11 pm »

BitUSD has been seeded with the consensus that the value of one BitUSD should be equal to the value of one US dollar.  Therefore, unless something happens to change this consensus the most profitable trade to make is to buy BitUSD when it is under 1 USD and sell BitUSD when it is over 1 USD.  If you trade against this then you are predicting others will do the same and as far as I know there is no rationale for any other price.


Not that I'd change it in the guide.

I'm not hot with this stuff, but from my perspective a BitUSD may be worth less than a USD in the beginning to me, because of system risk, lack of utility and the cost+effort of converting via a centralised exchange to say real USD for example.

I think once the system has proved robust, it has more utility, it's other advantages,  as well as if traditional banking risk factors increase. A BitUSD may be worth more than a normal USD to me.

Is that irrational. Is that not how it works?

122
General Discussion / Re: BM Black Swan insurance fund proposal
« on: August 19, 2014, 03:48:04 pm »
Has this insurance fund proposal been implemented?

123
General Discussion / Re: Ethereum & BitShares Partnership?
« on: August 19, 2014, 03:41:43 pm »
Apologies I made a post on BTT without the question mark, though I'm not affiliated with BitShares in anyway so I guess I can write what I like  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=740684.0

Though the first post included the opening line

Quote
Just read this on the BitShares forums from Bytemaster (Daniel Larimer), the founder & main developer of BitShares, it his just perspective & not be construed as being from Vitalik/Ethereum directly but...

as well as the quote

Vitalik and I are not very "political" and mostly care about the best technology for the job.   I am merely expressing my perspective on the conversation and will let him speak for himself.   

Edit: I've since included question mark in title of Bitcointalk thread as well as included an update with the latest quote from Vitalik 'An update on possible collaboration'

124
General Discussion / Re: How to attack Bitcoin Mining
« on: August 19, 2014, 03:21:40 pm »
Mineforeman conceded and blamed heavy medication...

Step 4)  Don't submit winning hashes, reducing the REVENUE of competitors by 3%

When mining you don't know if you have the winning hash until after you submit it (sometimes not even then).

Neil

Hi Neil, thanks for the input. This is the latest response I've got from BM on the forum  https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7003.msg94085#msg94085

Your absolutely right of coarse, the miner could 'guess' what shares may solve a block without too much trouble.

Neil

P.S. I blame a head cold, I took some pseudoephedrine about an hour or two ago and I just realized I am not thinking all that straight.... I think I will stop doing test restores of VM's as well before I do some damage :P .


Wasermann added some good examples of where this may already have happened

Step 4)  Don't submit winning hashes, reducing the REVENUE of competitors by 3%

When mining you don't know if you have the winning hash until after you submit it (sometimes not even then).

Neil
There are some modified versions of mining software (I believe it was cgminer) that can be set so that found blocks are not submitted to the pool. There was a miner in China earlier this year that was mining on the eligius pool, withheld what should have been several blocks (they would have been expected to find several blocks verses what they actually found); it ended up costing the pool several hundred BTC. There was also likely a similar attack on BTC guild that lasted several months before that as their luck was way below what it should have been.

Conversation ended. Don't think I'll bump it, Bitcoin is on shaky enough ground as it is.

I was already of the opinion it was extremely vulnerable because you only had to get to two people and there was also no certainity ghash.io wasn't already malevolent.

Having said that, I guess you could argue that for the next 3-6 months at the very least DPOS can still be thwarted for the short to medium term by getting to one person and/or location.

125
General Discussion / Re: Sending to Wrong Name
« on: August 19, 2014, 02:43:31 am »
I personally believe many online businesses and in future even my local restaurant/hardware store/plumber/individual users, when it comes time to pay by BTSX or BitUSD would prefer an account name that matches their business/taste and they would be willing to pay a small premium for it.

In my opinion that should be done using BitShares DNS. We can have our own version of BIP 0070 where we use the BDNS authentication capabilities rather than X.509 certificates, and instead of the merchant passing a unique payment address to the customer, they give the customer's client their BTSX account name and a short code to automatically include in the memo of the transaction(s).

Sounds good and I guess in the real world you wouldn't interact with the actual BTSX account name via point of sale devices either.
A good account name/email address is still desirable imo, but not a necessity unlike a web address.

However I don't see the downside to charging $0.1-0.25 for a BTSX account name myself.

Thank you so much for sending them back  :)

 +5% Glad we have guys like Clains in the world.

Bitcoin had a guy who paid $5 million for some pizza. Clains might be the guy who gave $5 million back that was sent to the wrong address :)


126
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares ATM
« on: August 19, 2014, 01:37:15 am »
We should contact this company https://bitcoinatm.com/
and others to request they let us buy or sell Bitshares at the ATM.

 +5%

127
What about snapshotting with the rollback enabled and airdropping us identical shares on a new blockchain.

128
For me it's a question of whether you can design a system that gives shareholders confidence these actions will only be taken in the big cases & when there is a definite clear consensus.

In every other system the answer is no, because you don't have the ability to provide that confidence. So I would not be in favour of a rollback for NXT.

This is *exactly* the problem actually.  If the rollback is only used in big cases, it means that it is safe to be part of a very popular NXT failure but not part of a small one (Because it won't be serious enough to be rolled back) - This will have a very centralizing effect where if you're going to be part of an exchange, well it better be the biggest exchange because otherwise people will say "Well it's not so bad, it wasn't the biggest exchange so we'll survive this". 

The rules need to be the rules, if you create conditions under which the rules and history itself can be re-written you will be inviting those who want to reinvent history to create exactly the conditions you are trying to avoid.  If it was not desirable to rewrite history such a mechanism could work, but because there are many ways individuals and groups and profit from rewriting history it's a very bad thing to codify in a way that is "OK".

It's concerning more people don't see this intractable issue.

We don't have to reward too big to fail. We could tax bter or burn all of it. I just don't want the hacker walking round with 50 million he can dump on the share price at any time.

129
General Discussion / Re: BTSX is taking off!
« on: August 19, 2014, 12:44:54 am »
ah, good opportunity to buy more if so..  ;)

 +5% I already have 'enough' but I can't stop buying it, it's just sooo good  :)

130
General Discussion / Re: Market Report
« on: August 19, 2014, 12:34:04 am »
True, but as far as I can see, the only reason to get out of PTS is if one is extremely excited about BTSX and needs to pay for it somehow. Otherwise, why have people held it until now only to flake out the week of a dual snapshot?
1) Donate to AGS using PTS
2) wait for snapshot annoucment
3) sell pts when high
4) get your shares from AGS
5) buy low after snapshot

sounds reasonable to me

That was reasonable when AGS existed. I'm talking about today, this week. Why would people sell PTS if not to buy BTSX?

If you don't like the snapshot or you think you can buy in cheaper post launch. In my case I'm a PTS seller now, but it was a close call.

My personal decisions

1. The alt-coin market is in a downturn, very negative, to be tied up now.
2. I couldn't value the Vote DAC at all. It looks interesting but Adamkernest has not been very active since the announcement. I have no idea what their short term business plan/approach is. There is limited interest at the moment. So personally I felt it had limited pre-snapshot value.
3. I like the DNS DAC. Toast is great and I think it looks strong.  I also think people like Clains in particular have done a good job in general putting the word out a bit. Hard to value post launch, mine was wide $2.5-10 Million.

Judging by investor interest, PTS volumes. I have a feeling you're not going to be missing out hugely value wise if you sell now and buy post-launch, so given the downturn in the alt-coin market & given I've already got some AGS. It made sense to me to sell some PTS.   

I have BTC but otherwise, BitShares is literally the only thing you want to be invested in right now imo. (I have a little NXT hedge left, sold 63% in the last few days, a little XCP hedge, sold 1/2 of that to buy more BTSX 2 weeks ago too )

131
For me it's a question of whether you can design a system that gives shareholders confidence these actions will only be taken in the big cases & when there is a definite clear consensus.

In every other system the answer is no, because you don't have the ability to provide that confidence. So I would not be in favour of a rollback for NXT.

However I think DPOS is a consensus model that should be able provide a mechanism for coming to tough decisions like this and the broadstrokes in the option outlined by BM is something I approve of personally.

If the majority of shareholders felt really strongly about a certain action there would be a hard fork anyway so might as well formalise some process imo.

if it is possible to implement via a hard fork and there are cases where people would choose to hard fork, then perhaps we should formalize the process and prevent the hardfork and overall disruption.

 +5%

132
General Discussion / Re: BTSX is taking off!
« on: August 18, 2014, 10:43:57 pm »
first wave over?

The forum was down for a while. That scares new people a lot imo.

The price in BTC graph though still looks very good.

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitshares-x/

So yeah just taking a small breather imo.

133
General Discussion / Re: Market Report
« on: August 18, 2014, 10:10:23 pm »
True, but as far as I can see, the only reason to get out of PTS is if one is extremely excited about BTSX and needs to pay for it somehow. Otherwise, why have people held it until now only to flake out the week of a dual snapshot?

Because their PTS would/should achieve the maximum selling price right before the dual snapshot.
 

134
Follow My Vote / Re: let it be beneficial to vote for the right one
« on: August 18, 2014, 09:35:56 pm »
This is not a good approach in general; people will vote for the candidate they think will win, rather than the candidate they think is best. The only effect will be voter unanimity, not voter motivation.

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2

 +5% True

What's the meaning of this? Adding the complexity of system I think.

It's a possible solution regarding voter apathy. (people being too lazy to vote and vote well.)

Yes, possible, but I think it only work for those who interested in luck chance, not exactly the people who are lazy to vote.
The cost is system payout and complexity but does not resolve it completely.

But voter apathy is a problem. Some extra motivation would be good imo.

But the system can only afford a small cost to get that motivation. So only by building it into a prize, would it become something big enough, that is able to help motivate.

Which is why I like the lottery idea.

Edit: For delegate voting in BTSX.  Not for voting for the 'right one', as I see biophil is right


135
I have to think about this one.

At the time. Off the top of my head I thought we could take the the top 1-20 delegates and tell the even numbered ones to change their names to 'YES' and the odd numbered ones to change their name to 'NO' for 24/48 hours. Then shareholders add and remove approval as necessary. At the end of 24/48 hours you can see by how many YES's are in the top 10 or adding/re-calculationg their approval to determine which decision shareholders at that time support.

Difference between the two strategies being we would know how BTSX shareholders felt about that particular incident maybe. 

I'm sure there's probably lots of problems with this approach, one being people might be lazy to re-adjust their vote afterwards and delegates might be pushed down a few positions by being randomly assigned the unpopular decision
(2. Maybe the hacked funds could influence the approval levels unless we could block them from voting.) 

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