I gave up predicting short term valuations .. but your arguments are reasonable!
So far I seem to have been right. I've been predicting a downtrend through the entire holiday season.
I don't think we can expect the price to go up unless there is both marketing and people with money to spend. Last year Bitcoin spiked up because people in China were buying at the same time people in America were selling but also possibly because of manipulation.
This year we aren't seeing a spike in Bitcoin buying coming from the USA or from China. This would mean the price of all altcoins could continue going down as miners keep printing more, as early adopters spend during Black Friday, etc.
The good thing about Bitshares is we have BitUSD for bear markets like this. Bitshares in particular isn't in a bear market but Bitcoin itself is in a bear market and that is what I think is slowly draining the money out of all altcoins in general. It will only be when people figure out they can save their money in BitAssets and trust it enough that Bitshares will rise in price.
These are just theories of mine though. I don't know if it is true myself so this thread is to hear about different theories on how to actually protect ourselves from volatility in Bitshares.
Another question is how much impact will the delegate dilution have on the price? Wouldn't some delegates cash out?