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Based on the premise in the OP would the value of BTSX really be 3*bitUSD + 3*bitEUR * 3*bitGLD issued etc etc ?
is there an animated video in the works aimed at explaining bitassets? similar to - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaY_KIsouTY ..
Quote from: bytemaster on September 10, 2014, 04:05:08 amWhen attempting to value a company one of the primary metrics that can be used is the earnings per share and the resulting P/E ratio. You can view BitShares systems as companies that earn revenue from transaction fees and have expenses paid to people providing resources to the company.I have put together a basic chart that shows the earnings BTSX would see at various transaction rates and trading volumes and then assumes an industry average 20 P/E ratio to derive an expected market cap valuation for the network.Based upon these numbers the valuation of BitShares X with 1 transaction per second and $500K volume per day on the internal exchange is $62 million dollars. However, if the internal exchange volume reaches similar levels to the external exchanges today, then the expected transaction rate would yield a valuation of $300 million dollars. Once the exchange volume hits $10 million per day, the resulting transaction volume of 10 transactions per second the valuation would be about $700 million dollars. These valuations are based entirely on P/E ratios which are clearly not sufficient for valuing a crypto-currency. Bitcoin for example has huge negative earnings, a transaction rate of less than 5 TPS and a valuation over $5 billion. Using Bitcoin as a metric we could claim that a network is worth about $1 billion per TPS. The vast majority of Bitcoin transaction volume occurs on exchanges, with BTSX many of the on-exchange trades will move onto the protocol itself and thus BTSX should have on-network transaction volumes equal to Bitcoin in a much shorter period of time.The assumed P/E ratio of 20 implies a 5% ROI; however, most banks these days give depositors less than 1% ROI. If BTSX is able to maintain its peg by backing bitUSD with BTSX and can share the transaction fees with bitUSD holders, then the demand for bitUSD will be enormous. Due to the collateral system that requires effectively 3x the value of all bitUSD deposits to be held as collateral in BTSX, we can estimate the value of BTSX to be about 3x the demand for USD deposits at 5% ROI. Considering the vast sums of money currently tied up in low-yield treasuries, savings accounts, etc the demand for bitUSD will be enormous. Of course, the more bitUSD that is created and “held” without corresponding transaction volume, the lower the ROI will become until supply equals demand. All of this is to say that the fundamentals on BTSX are very strong when analyzed like a traditional business and even stronger when compared to other crypto-currency systems on the market. It all depends on time to market and other difficult to predict factors. If Bitshares X can market BitUSD effectively so people know about it and tell their friends then the opportunity for 5% yield could perhaps go viral. How do you engineer taking BitUSD viral?You also have many competitors who will copy or try to copy BitUSD so it's a matter of quickly rolling out the features while also always continuosly adding new features. It is likely that the competitors will achieve feature parity in a short amount of time which means any particular set of features which look like they would bring in enormous demand today might not be as novel in a few months.So for September 2014 BitUSD is quite novel and BitUSD with 5% is even more novel. The question is will the Bitshares platform win the innovation arms race? I see it as an innovation arms race and I tend to invest in the companies which have a 6 month lead in that arms race. If Bitshares can maintain their innovation lead then there will always be new investors who will want to invest in the most innovative technology.There will be forks, clones, and other communities which attempt to copy the innovations from Bitshares and what matters is the rate at which team Bitshares pushes out new innovations. This way people who just copy and paste cannot keep up because the newest ideas will always come from the main chain.tl;dr Make Bitshares X as contagious and sticky as you can.
When attempting to value a company one of the primary metrics that can be used is the earnings per share and the resulting P/E ratio. You can view BitShares systems as companies that earn revenue from transaction fees and have expenses paid to people providing resources to the company.I have put together a basic chart that shows the earnings BTSX would see at various transaction rates and trading volumes and then assumes an industry average 20 P/E ratio to derive an expected market cap valuation for the network.Based upon these numbers the valuation of BitShares X with 1 transaction per second and $500K volume per day on the internal exchange is $62 million dollars. However, if the internal exchange volume reaches similar levels to the external exchanges today, then the expected transaction rate would yield a valuation of $300 million dollars. Once the exchange volume hits $10 million per day, the resulting transaction volume of 10 transactions per second the valuation would be about $700 million dollars. These valuations are based entirely on P/E ratios which are clearly not sufficient for valuing a crypto-currency. Bitcoin for example has huge negative earnings, a transaction rate of less than 5 TPS and a valuation over $5 billion. Using Bitcoin as a metric we could claim that a network is worth about $1 billion per TPS. The vast majority of Bitcoin transaction volume occurs on exchanges, with BTSX many of the on-exchange trades will move onto the protocol itself and thus BTSX should have on-network transaction volumes equal to Bitcoin in a much shorter period of time.The assumed P/E ratio of 20 implies a 5% ROI; however, most banks these days give depositors less than 1% ROI. If BTSX is able to maintain its peg by backing bitUSD with BTSX and can share the transaction fees with bitUSD holders, then the demand for bitUSD will be enormous. Due to the collateral system that requires effectively 3x the value of all bitUSD deposits to be held as collateral in BTSX, we can estimate the value of BTSX to be about 3x the demand for USD deposits at 5% ROI. Considering the vast sums of money currently tied up in low-yield treasuries, savings accounts, etc the demand for bitUSD will be enormous. Of course, the more bitUSD that is created and “held” without corresponding transaction volume, the lower the ROI will become until supply equals demand. All of this is to say that the fundamentals on BTSX are very strong when analyzed like a traditional business and even stronger when compared to other crypto-currency systems on the market.
I am a fan of the Bitshares platform, but lets keep our heads on. First, there is no such thing as a "standard PE ratio". Valuation is much more complex than that, especially for a business in a highly dynamic area of innovation where leadership can shift quickly. Second, its way too early to talk pie-in-the-sky numbers when there are still very basic issues that need to be resolved, contrary to some other posts I've read claiming an early victory. At this point there is still no mechanism in place to ensure that BitAssets will remain close to their pegs. Last I looked the highest bid on USD was 11% below the feed price, for BTC 12% and for CNY 15% below. The current mechanism to generate yield on USD (being based on a transaction fee pool) could never ensure this pegging, and is effectively subsidised (I think unsustainably) by BTSX holders. Further, there remains very limited liquidity in these markets and high spreads, which makes them unattractive for traders and potential commercial users of USD. Yes, I know its all still early, and I don't want to be a wet rag. But let's keep our heads focused, continue working as a community to get this to work, prove it to the outside world and then the rewards will come, whatever they may be.
Quote from: tonyk on September 12, 2014, 01:49:17 amFor me retirement (being rich) is when I can work without the need to get a paycheck. While I do not really envision myself doing nothing, I will much prefer to do something that keeps my brain busy, gives me some 'moral' satisfaction and that occupation does not need to necessarily bring financial benefits on any short term bases (weekly/monthly/yearly).I feel the same way, being rich to me is having enough "fuck-you" money to be able to decide for yourself what you'd like to do with your time, not have it imposed on you by the necessity of having a steady salary for paying down mortgage, food, etc.. I hope to "retire" before I'm fourty, but retirement in my case merely means quitting my dayjob to work for myself on things that I'm passionate about. Hint: Bitshares is one of those things Post contents inspired by www.mrmoneymustache.com, check it out if you have time
For me retirement (being rich) is when I can work without the need to get a paycheck. While I do not really envision myself doing nothing, I will much prefer to do something that keeps my brain busy, gives me some 'moral' satisfaction and that occupation does not need to necessarily bring financial benefits on any short term bases (weekly/monthly/yearly).
Quote from: G1ng3rBr34dM4n on September 12, 2014, 01:48:12 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:42:34 pmQuote from: Chuckone on September 12, 2014, 01:31:21 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:25:01 pmQuote from: xeroc on September 12, 2014, 01:14:27 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:11:54 pm... I expect to see at least 0.30 per share a year from now.0.30 denoted in BTC, USD, EUR, or CNY?USDThat's approximately 8 times the current value, and give BTSX a valuation of 600M$. That's kind of bullish, but not unseen in the crypto-world. Knowing the quality of the product/features offered and the quality of the devs supporting the whole project, nothing's impossible! It's all about appealing to the masses and deep pocketed investors...Are you familiar with the bitcoin bubble cycles?lol - my first reaction was 200-300x seems realistic. 500x+ is bullishA 200x increase would put the BTSX market cap at $16,000,000,000 USD. I don't see that happening all in one bubble cycle. I'll be happy with a 5x increase over the next year or so.
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:42:34 pmQuote from: Chuckone on September 12, 2014, 01:31:21 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:25:01 pmQuote from: xeroc on September 12, 2014, 01:14:27 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:11:54 pm... I expect to see at least 0.30 per share a year from now.0.30 denoted in BTC, USD, EUR, or CNY?USDThat's approximately 8 times the current value, and give BTSX a valuation of 600M$. That's kind of bullish, but not unseen in the crypto-world. Knowing the quality of the product/features offered and the quality of the devs supporting the whole project, nothing's impossible! It's all about appealing to the masses and deep pocketed investors...Are you familiar with the bitcoin bubble cycles?lol - my first reaction was 200-300x seems realistic. 500x+ is bullish
Quote from: Chuckone on September 12, 2014, 01:31:21 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:25:01 pmQuote from: xeroc on September 12, 2014, 01:14:27 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:11:54 pm... I expect to see at least 0.30 per share a year from now.0.30 denoted in BTC, USD, EUR, or CNY?USDThat's approximately 8 times the current value, and give BTSX a valuation of 600M$. That's kind of bullish, but not unseen in the crypto-world. Knowing the quality of the product/features offered and the quality of the devs supporting the whole project, nothing's impossible! It's all about appealing to the masses and deep pocketed investors...Are you familiar with the bitcoin bubble cycles?
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:25:01 pmQuote from: xeroc on September 12, 2014, 01:14:27 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:11:54 pm... I expect to see at least 0.30 per share a year from now.0.30 denoted in BTC, USD, EUR, or CNY?USDThat's approximately 8 times the current value, and give BTSX a valuation of 600M$. That's kind of bullish, but not unseen in the crypto-world. Knowing the quality of the product/features offered and the quality of the devs supporting the whole project, nothing's impossible! It's all about appealing to the masses and deep pocketed investors...
Quote from: xeroc on September 12, 2014, 01:14:27 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:11:54 pm... I expect to see at least 0.30 per share a year from now.0.30 denoted in BTC, USD, EUR, or CNY?USD
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 01:11:54 pm... I expect to see at least 0.30 per share a year from now.0.30 denoted in BTC, USD, EUR, or CNY?
... I expect to see at least 0.30 per share a year from now.
So lets say we get a large portion of the BTC crowd in bitBTC. Wouldn't someone cashing out a very large stake upset the peg? If their bitBTC reaches a point they want to sell $5MM worth they'd still have convert it to BTC on the open market. I guess we're assuming that one or more of the following will come about:1) The centralized exchanges support bitBTC so they can cash out 1/1 bitBTC/BTC2) They can go from bitBTC->bitUSD->fiat directly3) bitBTC->fiat Coinbase style.Going from BTC->USD in large enough quantity would cause a price slump. Going from bitBTC->BTC in large enough quantity may give the market a heads up to start dumping some BTC...
Liquidity providers are essentially lenders that will "hold" while you wait for a buyer to come on the market.
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 12, 2014, 02:12:35 pmA 200x increase would put the BTSX market cap at $16,000,000,000 USD. I don't see that happening all in one bubble cycle. I'll be happy with a 5x increase over the next year or so.BitShares is currently trading at over 5x its value of just one month ago...things move fast when something truly revolutionary is afoot. I personally believe we'll all be caught off guard at how quickly things explode if BitYield works as planned and an impressive trading software suite rolls out. The potential here is absolutely monumentally enormous...can't wait.
A 200x increase would put the BTSX market cap at $16,000,000,000 USD. I don't see that happening all in one bubble cycle. I'll be happy with a 5x increase over the next year or so.
this summer
Quote from: Chuckone on September 12, 2014, 11:37:56 amGood for you all if your stake in BTSX is large enough to be rich if it catches on I certainly won't get rich but might be able to switch to part time work, or a job that is less demanding of my time. May even be able to make a go of working in crypto.
Good for you all if your stake in BTSX is large enough to be rich if it catches on
In a way I am truly scared by this possibility. I just checked and I AM in the top ten of all time posters...
Quote from: tonyk on September 12, 2014, 01:49:17 amFor me retirement (being rich) is when I can work without the need to get a paycheck. While I do not really envision myself doing nothing, I will much prefer to do something that keeps my brain busy, gives me some 'moral' satisfaction and that occupation does not need to necessarily bring financial benefits on any short term bases (weekly/monthly/yearly).Oh, shit! you're starting to sound like you want to be as eagleeye already is (in his own mind).
This leads me to not quite on topic but semi-related question -What do Billionaires do in their free time?PSI am just trying to be prepared that's all.
Quote from: bytemaster on September 10, 2014, 04:05:08 am If BTSX is able to maintain its peg by backing bitUSD with BTSX and can share the transaction fees with bitUSD holders, then the demand for bitUSD will be enormous. Due to the collateral system that requires effectively 3x the value of all bitUSD deposits to be held as collateral in BTSX, This is where the value is for me and what other companies don't have. Every dollar worth of our product in circulation probably equals two to three dollars worth of value for BTSX?I imagine the valuation will be primarily driven by how much 'BitAssets In Circulation' are increasing on average per month, not earnings from fees. I mean a normal vault just earns a small percentage from the fees for each dollar of storage demand or trading in the case of an exchange & so their value is derived from that, but in BTSX, every $10 million of new outside BitAsset storage demand also directly adds at least $10 millon, probably $20-30 million to the value of the BTSX CAP, that's huge, no? How do you value that? Like in the first month there are already circa $500 000 worth of BitAssets already in circulation. How many will be added per month as more BitAssets are introduced and now that we have BitYield!! and how much will that rate be increasing by per month as adoption & demand continues and the system becomes perceived as more robust and safe? I think it's conservative to guestimate even now that the amount of BitAssets in circulation could be increasing by $2 million a month on avg. by month 12. That requires $70 million a year (3x value of BitAsset Deposits) of BTSX to be additionally tied up per year most of which will have be added to the current CAP. Multiply that by a few years and then add the earnings to the valuation too. It seems like BTSX will be worth a fortune based on legitimate valuations very early on.
If BTSX is able to maintain its peg by backing bitUSD with BTSX and can share the transaction fees with bitUSD holders, then the demand for bitUSD will be enormous. Due to the collateral system that requires effectively 3x the value of all bitUSD deposits to be held as collateral in BTSX,
I had a friend read BM's op, this is what he sent back:"This guys argument is really poor. To use a P/E ratio you have to use it for all similar companies (for Apple you would use the tech industry average). The only benchmark you have for bitshares is bit coin which has negative earnings and is extremely overvalued. He brings up return on investment (roi) but that's going to be way higher because it's an unsecured virtual currency so accounting for that would drive his valuation way down. He also mentions that bitx is securitized by bitusd-this is a red flag. Who has conidence in securitizing with something equally as unsecuritized"If anyone has any response for him, I will pass alongSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The marketing team needs to show up, because from this point on it's all marketing.
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 10, 2014, 08:53:27 pmThe marketing team needs to show up, because from this point on it's all marketing.Brian has not posted recently... In my mind that means he is hard at work. I am eagerly waiting. Something big must be coming up.
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 10, 2014, 08:53:27 pmThe marketing team needs to show up, because from this point on it's all marketing.They are just about ready... we still don't have a stable / bug free client but we are almost there.