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Messages - Empirical1.2

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76
General Discussion / Re: Whale Powered Assets
« on: May 03, 2016, 04:09:21 pm »
Quote from: Stan on April 19, 2016, 07:00:00 pm
Proposals are based in part on what resources are available to work on them.
Resources are hired based on the availability of stable funding.
A constant battle over who controls the funding light switch means no one dares hire against any line item.
So the resources remain allocated elsewhere.

Voting is overrated.  I wouldn't want to ride on an aircraft controlled by voting passengers.
Give me a benevolent whale any day.
:)

'The DAO' seems to be doing very well in its fund-raising so far, so it seems the market has faith in something similar to the BTS voting model. I guess the real test will be to see how they do in practice.

http://coinjournal.net/dao-decentralized-fund-management-crowdsale/

Quote

The DAO Raises Over US$13 Million During First Three Days of Crowdsale

Similarly, in The DAO, there is no director and no board. Voting power is granted to holders of The DOA tokens who can vote to approve or decline proposals submitted. Voting rights are proportional to the amount of tokens held. The proposals submitted to The DAO by contractors, define how much or how little control over its operational responsibilities The DAO “outsources” to the contractors.

The DAO said it is looking for projects that provide a return on investment or benefit to the organization and its members, and which benefit the decentralized ecosystem as a whole.

The organization earns revenue generated by the products and services it helps fund. Profits are then distributed to participants based on transparent rules that are decided by the participants beforehand.

77
General Discussion / Re: What happens if Steem market cap surpasses Bitshares market cap?
« on: April 29, 2016, 12:24:11 pm »
Quote from: luckybit on April 29, 2016, 02:56:31 am
This is a question no one has asked but probably many people are thinking about.

If you look at total supply it's already valued higher than BTS.

It's valued at >$12 million, with about $15 000 worth of buy support above $1 million...  ::)

78
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: April 28, 2016, 11:52:06 am »
Quote from: merockstar on April 28, 2016, 01:37:12 am
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,22317.msg290945.html#msg290945

Quote from: bytemaster on April 26, 2016, 10:00:59 pm
I think the future is pretty clear for BTS:

1. work out the kinks with Steem
2. merge best parts of steem + BTS into a next generation DEX
3. sharedrop + dev allocation

It is just a much longer roadmap.

what do you guys think, bts buy out steem?

The last thing you want is another merger.

After 5-6 months the current expensive merger will be over (which is releasing circa 50 BTC per week, with the largest merger recipients likely selling) That will be a HUGE saving which dwarfs BTS development costs. During that time BTS will also have hopefully found it's feet and will be funding some basic development, SmartCoin liquidity & hopefully at least 1 major feature.

Regards Steem, given what I currently know about the launch & structure I would expect it to decline significantly over that same period. (I also think despite their huge and obvious development talent, 'social + media' is one of CNX/BM/Stan's biggest areas of weakness, so unless the people behind Steemit are really phenomenal I view it as a bad match in that regard too.)

So the only way I can foresee a merger happening, is by BM essentially acknowledging Steem isn't very good and the only way to increase it's value is to say he will fork some of BTS onto Steem and that he will be adding some features BTS is lacking & use the threat of that to incentivize a merger to acquire a strong position in 3.0 however as usual this process will significantly destroy value and anyone invested in BTS will lose a ton, to the point even BM won't make a very large $ gain overall once the messy process is over. BTS will then also be hamstrung for another X years following that, depending on terms.

79
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: April 26, 2016, 02:00:11 am »
Quote from: lil_jay890 on April 26, 2016, 12:29:05 am
Safe haven cryptos like btc ltc Doge and peercoin are outperforming.

Speculative stuff is getting hammered... This happened a few months ago.

Yeah when Bitcoin does well other established crypto-currencies do well and DACs underperform.

Quote from: Empirical1.2 on November 03, 2015, 04:24:59 pm
The better Bitcoin does, the better it is for other immutable crypto-currencies

Quote from: Empirical1.2 on November 03, 2015, 03:18:23 pm
As usual I expect other crypto-currencies to benefit the most like LTC, DGC, PPC while ETH, XRP, BTS and MaidSafe will benefit the least.



80
General Discussion / Re: Ethereum price discussion
« on: April 25, 2016, 10:40:03 pm »
Quote from: liondani on April 25, 2016, 10:32:35 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 25, 2016, 10:21:00 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 22, 2016, 04:31:54 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 12, 2016, 11:33:37 pm
I don't know :) I like MAID this week though, MVP getting closer...

I'm stocking up on MAID at these prices again, think ETH is pulling it down but MVP seems to be coming along well.

Ouch...

(Still holding Maid and going to DCA at this lower price hoping the MVP will be released soon... )

sorry for the noob question...

what is DCA and MVP?

DCA is dollar cost averaging. So I'm buying more MAID now so that my average price for Maid on this trade will be lower.

MVP is minimum viable product. MAID are very close to releasing a MVP finally, possibly in the next few weeks, I'm hoping when that happens MAID will see new highs and the trade will pay off.

81
General Discussion / Re: Ethereum price discussion
« on: April 25, 2016, 10:21:00 pm »
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 22, 2016, 04:31:54 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 12, 2016, 11:33:37 pm
I don't know :) I like MAID this week though, MVP getting closer...

I'm stocking up on MAID at these prices again, think ETH is pulling it down but MVP seems to be coming along well.

Ouch...

(Still holding Maid and going to DCA at this lower price hoping the MVP will be released soon... )

82
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: April 25, 2016, 08:00:45 pm »
Quote from: bitmeat on April 25, 2016, 07:26:05 pm
What is this merger I keep hearing about?

Quote from: bitmeat on October 21, 2014, 02:00:14 am
Quote from: Felix on October 21, 2014, 01:54:20 am
I cann't understand the reason why AGS/PTS holders have already acquired btsx shares and now will be allocated again by diluting btsx shares!!!

It's not diluting, it's a merger. BTSX is buying out AGS and PTS. I love it!

You as a BTSX holder would also receive dividends on all future DACs. Isn't it great?

That merger...



83
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: April 25, 2016, 03:42:15 pm »
Quote from: BunkerChain Labs on April 25, 2016, 02:36:45 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 25, 2016, 02:22:55 pm
Quote from: D4vegee on April 25, 2016, 11:00:18 am
Unfortunately. After two years of believing in BTS. I am now struggling to justify why i should keep my holdings. Im worried this aint nowhere near the bottom. Is there any further development or is STEEM the new kid in town?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It will be tough until the merger is over.

I think BTS needs some new vision/leadership and development proposals. I haven't been following them lately but KenCode seems to be someone who can get things done and for good value.
I imagine the Chinese will have to change their tune on no dilution, part of their reasoning was that development would continue because otherwise developers would lose money on their BTS stake but they've (developers) clearly sold/selling a reasonable amount and focusing elsewhere.

Regards Steem,  it's significantly over-valued imo and possibly uninvestable by design, I'm hesitant to elaborate too much at the risk of improving their model. I think the creators will still be able to get a few hundred thousand out of it over the next year though. There could also be other elements/'secret sauce' I'm unaware of.

http://cryptofresh.com/ballots

Someone should send them the memo on this.. they still haven't changed anything.

If they don't change their tune like you say though.. I think we are going to see not just devs looking elsewhere but those of us building on bitshares looking also. Any business looking to use bitshares has to want it 'as is', and not expect any improvements.

I agree on the leadership front... though there is an internal conflict on this front as well as far as the community goes. Do you recall just a few months ago just how much hate was directed at CNX and this push for 'decentralization' of the development? It was this attitude of anybody but CNX  for a little while.. which they responded too and stayed out of putting anymore proposals.

So why is this downtrend happening now? What has changed that really impacts Bitshares future prospects? Or is this just the ongoing dumping cycle that if you look back seems to happen this time of month.. perhaps due to the merger holders?

Personally I would have liked to see more decentralization of development from new groups, possibly Chinese and cheaper,  while still obviously needing to rely on CNX/BM for major features like say margin trading.  Atm we don't seem to have much of either but tbh I don't track it too closely. 

As for the downtrend, I would guess it's the fact that the lead dev, largest shareholder and largest merger recipient is primarily focusing on another DAC & USD. If there's a sense of BTS progress again even if not's fully development related then I think it will stabilise though personally I think the expensive merger could still be a big drag until it ends. 

84
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: April 25, 2016, 02:22:55 pm »
Quote from: D4vegee on April 25, 2016, 11:00:18 am
Unfortunately. After two years of believing in BTS. I am now struggling to justify why i should keep my holdings. Im worried this aint nowhere near the bottom. Is there any further development or is STEEM the new kid in town?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It will be tough until the merger is over.

I think BTS needs some new vision/leadership and development proposals. I haven't been following them lately but KenCode seems to be someone who can get things done and for good value.
I imagine the Chinese will have to change their tune on no dilution, part of their reasoning was that development would continue because otherwise developers would lose money on their BTS stake but they've (developers) clearly sold/selling a reasonable amount and focusing elsewhere.

Regards Steem,  it's significantly over-valued imo and possibly uninvestable by design, I'm hesitant to elaborate too much at the risk of improving their model. I think the creators will still be able to get a few hundred thousand out of it over the next year though. There could also be other elements/'secret sauce' I'm unaware of.

85
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: April 24, 2016, 10:48:00 pm »
Unless BTS ends the merger early I think the longer term down-trend will reassert itself, especially with the largest merger recipients likely selling.

Ironically BTS will still probably outperform Steem over the next 3 months imo. 

86
General Discussion / Re: BTC to 6000?
« on: April 22, 2016, 08:01:05 pm »
Quote from: Tuck Fheman on April 22, 2016, 07:37:39 pm
http://forums.prohashing.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=821&p=3113#p3113

He's right about the halving usually being priced in early, the decline after is natural though, (bit of a sell on the news event) but not evidence that the halving is of limited impact because the price generally settles at a much higher base than say 6-12 months prior. (As would be expected.)

He didn't think Ethereum could go much below $10. Again like his halving analysis underestimating the impact of inflation, downwards in ETH's case, on price.

He thinks ETH will see a surge in June, which it might if that co-incides with major ETH news. But again it's a question of mined supply being sold into relatively thin crypto buy walls. After the halving BTC can support $10 billion for less money/average demand than ETH can support 2 billion.

Also he thinks it has established itself as the second currency but imo ETH is viewed & valued by the market as a DAC.

87
General Discussion / Re: BTC to 6000?
« on: April 22, 2016, 07:01:51 pm »
Quote from: werneo on April 22, 2016, 05:42:31 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 22, 2016, 04:43:45 pm
I've been bullish on BTC due to the halving. It will be able to support a much higher price on the same level of demand and the market will start pricing some of that in.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it test $1000 before the halving.

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com

(Edit: It can't support anywhere close to 6000 though even with only 4% inflation :) )

Don't forget the transaction cap of 1 megabyte per block. Bitcoin transactions capacity maxed out for the first last month, and block times slowed to over 40 minutes. Another bitcoin bull market could cause transaction confirmation times to balloon to an hour if not more.

Ironically, a new mega bull could provoke a crisis. Then it's fork or die.

I think it will force a change but I'm not sure it will be the end of the world if it doesn't.

I have a theory that BTC being used a transactional currency is of limited value, because merchants, due to volatility, immediately sell received BTC for fiat causing selling/downward  pressure on BTC.

I think it might be to BTC's benefit to be slow and expensive and function primarily as a store of value/digital gold.

88
General Discussion / Re: BTC to 6000?
« on: April 22, 2016, 04:43:45 pm »
I've been bullish on BTC due to the halving. It will be able to support a much higher price on the same level of demand and the market will start pricing some of that in.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it test $1000 before the halving.

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com

(Edit: It can't support anywhere close to 6000 though even with only 4% inflation :) )

89
General Discussion / Re: Ethereum price discussion
« on: April 22, 2016, 04:31:54 pm »
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on April 12, 2016, 11:33:37 pm
Quote from: liondani on April 12, 2016, 06:34:06 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on March 29, 2016, 12:21:35 pm
Quote from: liondani on March 28, 2016, 11:32:54 pm
Quote from: Empirical1.2 on March 28, 2016, 06:13:06 pm
I'm margin selling all the way up to 0.030 myself.

You made the mistake to not participate on ethereum crowd-sale... don't make another one! We need you here...healthy!

Yeah I might lose on this one :) My thinking is that they have a high valuation, a lot for sale under 0.032 and high inflation atm.

If you look at LTC when it had that kind of inflation, it could never maintain a high level, as that 30% inflation would always drag the price down when the current reason for speculative demand dried up.

If I lose on this trade, I'll lose on others because I've put buy orders very low on other things I like expecting a sharp Ethereum correction to make them crash too, so I might end up having to buy into them higher. Oh well...


Thumbs up to @Empirical1.2  for his accurate prediction !!!!     +5% +5% +5%
Now tell as where you think it stops?

I don't know :) I like MAID this week though, MVP getting closer...

I'm stocking up on MAID at these prices again, think ETH is pulling it down but MVP seems to be coming along well.

Have some open shorts on ETH still waiting to close will open new shorts again if goes above 0.02.

90
General Discussion / Re: Whale Powered Assets
« on: April 21, 2016, 01:54:19 pm »
Quote from: Ben Mason on April 20, 2016, 11:16:58 am
What makes it harder is the gap in my technical knowledge and my distance from the best information.  For instance, how do I evaluate the relative value of Bitshares as it stands and new initiatives (born out of necessity or frustration or innovation) like steem?  I feel i have to take a position in steem because many key community members have and it seems prudent.   Ultimately,  I have only ever been interested in one thing and you know what that is already.  I would hand over all my stake now if it would guarantee the success of the vision......

Yeah this is why I prefer we don't promote it on BTS because it's leaching BTS investment $. (Personally I don't have any.)

Also be careful, I assume if you have limited technical knowledge you're probably not vesting, because they haven't provided a windows wallet yet to my knowledge, so in addition to everything else, the value of your Steem is likely declining in BTC terms as the value gets transferred from you to the majority owners. 

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