Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.
See this historical graph:
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.
And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.
After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right? And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.
My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time. Anyone have any arguments for a different view?
Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either. Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.
I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005
Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.
See this historical graph:
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.
And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.
After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right? And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.
My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time. Anyone have any arguments for a different view?
Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either. Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.
I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005
I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005
I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.
I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005
I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.
Can you provide some justification for this, which everyone will accept as fact?
I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005
I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.
Can you provide some justification for this, which everyone will accept as fact?
He is correct. It was about $.01 or less. I had no initial shares so I had to buy.
I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005
I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.
Can you provide some justification for this, which everyone will accept as fact?
He is correct. It was about $.01 or less. I had no initial shares so I had to buy.
Think that would hold up if I added that to wikipedia? "The opening prices of "bitsharesX was less than $.01, and we know this because GaltReport claimed it, and he knows because he didn't get any genesis shares so he had to buy afterwords."
Where are you guys getting these numbers?
Brent
Depending on what day you made an AGS donation, you got a different price. If you donated the week before the snapshot, you paid a much higher price. If you mined PTS in the first week, you paid a lower cost. My unscientific estimate is that the average is closer to .01+5%
Okay. July 21, 2014 I see price of .00002125 BTC from coinmarketcap.com 180 day chart. From coindesk.com I see a BTC price of $620 on that day so I think it comes out to $.013175 per BTSX.
Best I can do for now.
Edit: Even lower the next day, July 22, 2014: .00001598 BTC and BTC $618 for $.00987564 per BTSX.
Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.
Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.
See this historical graph:
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.
And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.
After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right? And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.
My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time. Anyone have any arguments for a different view?
Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either. Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.
Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.
Could just be Mark Karpeles manipulating the [mtgox] btc market with his willy bot.
http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/
I believe we could overcome bitcoins in 6 - 12 months.
I believe we could overcome bitcoins in 6 - 12 months.
I see you are very confident in the marketing team. I'm still not sure if they can get this much trading volume. But I would love to be wrong..
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I believe we could overcome bitcoins in 6 - 12 months.
I see you are very confident in the marketing team. I'm still not sure if they can get this much trading volume. But I would love to be wrong..
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Its not just what the marketing team can do for you, its what you can do for the marketing team (or bitshares). :D
Furthermore, if you have good ideas, which you may (we all have good ideas inside of us), then go to the Marketing Forum and/or Press forum.
Its not just what the marketing team can do for you, its what you can do for the marketing team (or bitshares). :D
"The moment between the striking and the fire.." (From the song Jungle Drums by Emiliana Torrini). Do you know some songs of her Fuzz?
Keep in mind that BTSX will crash first before going back up again.. just warning you this is the 'return to normal' found in any bubble.
Media attention: Coinmarketcap.com which every single person interested in Crypto follows. Price starts going up and people rush in to see why and get in before it's too late. Then they spend all the money they are willing to spend and prices crashes soon after because buying support is gone, selling support is increased because price is increased and people are trying to lock in profits. It has happened to countless other cryptos.
BitYield?
No I don't think crypto-currency is a bubble.. I think it was.. look at Bitcoin and a few others that all spiked at some point and I think that BTSX is in one currently.
And keep in mind that most people who buy crypto don't follow every in and out, and most probably know that BTSX has instant transactions and maybe that BitUSD exists.. but even there, I went to a alt coin conference and nobody could figure out why BTSX's price was rising so quickly, people just don't have time to follow every little improvement or problem with a coin.
Keep in mind that BTSX will crash first before going back up again.. just warning you this is the 'return to normal' found in any bubble.
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/25658/large/bubble_main.jpg?1364495604)
BTSX has some great technology but it simply hasn't had as much time to acquire as many users, and trust me it'll crash soon. I'd give it one or two days before we hit the second peak. I'd recommend you sell some soon if you are in it for the money, then buy back in a month or so. Don't say I didn't warn you!
When Bitshares is $1 billion market cap. Everyone will begin to know its power and then boom $20 billion marketcap.
Hey ****who, go sell some BTSX, cause while posting your curve got in significant trouble...
The ask is at 0.00009898...
Don't say I didn't warn you!
Keep in mind that BTSX will crash first before going back up again.. just warning you this is the 'return to normal' found in any bubble.
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/25658/large/bubble_main.jpg?1364495604)
BTSX has some great technology but it simply hasn't had as much time to acquire as many users, and trust me it'll crash soon. I'd give it one or two days before we hit the second peak. I'd recommend you sell some soon if you are in it for the money, then buy back in a month or so. Don't say I didn't warn you!
When Bitshares is $1 billion market cap. Everyone will begin to know its power and then boom $20 billion marketcap.
That seems like a stretch.. but true or not, short term BTSX isn't there yet. Look at how much more Nxt is capable of and it has a larger community, point being, BTSX is currently overvalued. That's not to say long term it's not a great investment but in a month or two it'll be a better one. I've about to sell what little I bought about a week ago, maybe I'll sell tomorrow or the next day, anticipating this second peak and plan to buy back in a month or two.
I'm not trying to manipulate prices this is just how I see it and in a few weeks, odds are I'll be proven right. It's a lot easier to see if you aren't emotionally attached to the coin the way that most people in this forum are, I'm still very much newly interested in BTSX.Hey ****who, go sell some BTSX, cause while posting your curve got in significant trouble...
The ask is at 0.00009898...
Don't say I didn't warn you!
Note I stated that it would take a couple more days.. and I might be wrong it might be another week or two of up, no way to know.
Look at how much more Nxt is capable of and it has a larger community, point being, BTSX is currently overvalued.
What do you think the peak will be?
"The moment between the striking and the fire.." (From the song Jungle Drums by Emiliana Torrini). Do you know some songs of her Fuzz?
no not familiar :P
It's so funny how people involved in crypto will pick coins like they pick a sports team.
Team BTC, team NXT, team DOGE, team BTSX.
How about team blockchain technology?
Keep in mind that BTSX will crash first before going back up again.. just warning you this is the 'return to normal' found in any bubble.
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/25658/large/bubble_main.jpg?1364495604)
BTSX has some great technology but it simply hasn't had as much time to acquire as many users, and trust me it'll crash soon. I'd give it one or two days before we hit the second peak. I'd recommend you sell some soon if you are in it for the money, then buy back in a month or so. Don't say I didn't warn you!
What do you think the peak will be?
It's so funny how people involved in crypto will pick coins like they pick a sports team.
Team BTC, team NXT, team DOGE, team BTSX.
How about team blockchain technology?
You hear of team SuperNet? Might interest you.. it's a Nxt initiative to try to unite the coins. Basically a asset that will be backed by all of the major crypto players, holding on to a large chunk of many coins. Sort of like the first Mutual Fund for crypto. If any coins make it big, everyone invested makes it big. And let's face it.. we all know that some of the coins will do so, just that nobody is 100% sure which ones will stick around.
Keep in mind that BTSX will crash first before going back up again.. just warning you this is the 'return to normal' found in any bubble.
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/25658/large/bubble_main.jpg?1364495604)
BTSX has some great technology but it simply hasn't had as much time to acquire as many users, and trust me it'll crash soon. I'd give it one or two days before we hit the second peak. I'd recommend you sell some soon if you are in it for the money, then buy back in a month or so. Don't say I didn't warn you!
What do you think the peak will be?
Bitshares has not completed the stealth phase.
99% of the world has no idea Bitshares exist.
Probably less one in ten BTC/Alt users understand the platform. Less than that have sold BTC/Alts to acquire BTSX.
My completely unbacked opinion is that BTSX will transition into the awareness phase over the next three or four months.
The 'first sell off' will happen around the $1bn market cap, mostly for psychological reasons. I'm (guessing) that will happen Q1 2015.
This horse hasn't even left the gate.
more like one year for the awarness stage
Here's the thing about it being a bubble.. what can customers currently do with it other than speculate or buy BitUSD? That makes it a bubble. Maybe a bubble within the stealth phase in the long run.. but a bubble none the less.
Anything you can do with BitShares, you can do with Nxt.. except you can also do far more with Nxt, you can actually buy/sell stuff with Nxt.. some stores accept it, there are many websites all over powered by Nxt and using Nxt for business, it's all over the place and has a lot of community support and has for a while. Some big name payment processors are going to be adding it soon, they have a Point of Sale payment system coming out soon. The Nxt marketplace just launched. Except granted DPOS is quite cool.. still not as cool as Nxt's upcoming Instant Transaction system.. it's actually going to be much more decentralized Instant Transactions unlike DPOS, but granted that sounds like it's a long way away and until implemented, doesn't do much for Nxt. Nxt has much more of a network effect going for it.
I'm comparing it to Nxt because BitShares is currently much like Nxt was in December of last year and both are POS and attract similiar crowds. It'd been in development for a few months and had a lot of potential and we all assumed that everyone else must see the same potential we did. But guess what, they didn't and never do. If they couldn't use it right now to do anything, then why buy it right now.. why not wait for the excitement to die down and see if it was actually going to have staying power. Granted FUD about the 'unfair' distribution didn't help, but Nxt is still just as revolutionary as BTSX, if not more as it figured out much of this stuff first.
But Bitshares has it's own brand of FUD people are spreading about it being centralized due to DPOS.. which is partially true given you can vote for multiple delegates. And if someone manages to get 51% of the delegates, they can simply choose to stop including transactions that allow holders to choose different delegates and suddenly BTSX is dead. Which is easier and cheaper when you only have to get 50 delegates by convincing people to vote for them without needing to actually buy 51% of the stake. I definitely suspect that something like that will start being used to try to scare people from BTSX and it will affect price.
I'm not trying to scare people just be realistic.. be aware that it is risky and odds are that the second phase of the first bubble will break soon. This whole talk of BTSX being revolutionary is part of the 'New Paradigm' that comes will all bubbles. Don't lose half your life savings because you invest it all in now realizing that BTSX has long term potential, then the price halves.. or more. Wait until after the price halves so you can buy twice as much! Just please, download the Nxt wallet found at nxt.org.. and tell me that you really think that BitShares has Nxt beat feature wise. BTSX has some improvements and features that Nxt has been slow to implement. I'm not saying switch to Nxt either.. just try to remove emotions and not lose too much money, especially if you're a little guy who can't afford to lose too much.
Oh and yes, SuperNet might be centralized currently, I think currencies are held via multi-sig.. I think that control of it will be gradually more and more decentralized as the Multi-Gateway is expanded and more currencies are added to MGW. Which is a really cool project by itself.. you can trade Nxt and BTC in a decentralized fashion!
hughmanwho you have the rights to brag about Nxt , but the thing is you are NOT in the right place. FUDing majority of BTSX investor ?? WE HAVE OUR FAITH IN BITSHARES RIGHT FROM THE MOMENT WE MINED PTS.
hughmanwho you have the rights to brag about Nxt , but the thing is you are NOT in the right place. FUDing majority of BTSX investor ?? WE HAVE OUR FAITH IN BITSHARES RIGHT FROM THE MOMENT WE MINED PTS.
hughmanwho you have the rights to brag about Nxt , but the thing is you are NOT in the right place. FUDing majority of BTSX investor ?? WE HAVE OUR FAITH IN BITSHARES RIGHT FROM THE MOMENT WE MINED PTS.
I'm not sure the post was intended as FUD.
His cautions are with merit and his advice is sound.
In fact, posts like these are very valuable as they remind us to constantly reassess our investment strategies.
Complacency combined with hype is a bad mix.
Fortunately for me, I've reassessed and jumped right back on the train.
YMMV :D
Keep in mind that BTSX will crash first before going back up again.. just warning you this is the 'return to normal' found in any bubble.
(http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/25658/large/bubble_main.jpg?1364495604)
BTSX has some great technology but it simply hasn't had as much time to acquire as many users, and trust me it'll crash soon. I'd give it one or two days before we hit the second peak. I'd recommend you sell some soon if you are in it for the money, then buy back in a month or so. Don't say I didn't warn you!
What do you think the peak will be?
Bitshares has not completed the stealth phase.
99% of the world has no idea Bitshares exist.
Probably less one in ten BTC/Alt users understand the platform. Less than that have sold BTC/Alts to acquire BTSX.
My completely unbacked opinion is that BTSX will transition into the awareness phase over the next three or four months.
The 'first sell off' will happen around the $1bn market cap, mostly for psychological reasons. I'm (guessing) that will happen Q1 2015.
This horse hasn't even left the gate.
more like one year for the awarness stage
And in the interests of Full Disclosure,
hughmanwho would like to state: .............................................................................
Here's the thing about it being a bubble.. what can customers currently do with it other than speculate or buy BitUSD? That makes it a bubble. Maybe a bubble within the stealth phase in the long run.. but a bubble none the less.
Anything you can do with BitShares, you can do with Nxt.. except you can also do far more with Nxt, you can actually buy/sell stuff with Nxt.. some stores accept it, there are many websites all over powered by Nxt and using Nxt for business, it's all over the place and has a lot of community support and has for a while. Some big name payment processors are going to be adding it soon, they have a Point of Sale payment system coming out soon. The Nxt marketplace just launched. Except granted DPOS is quite cool.. still not as cool as Nxt's upcoming Instant Transaction system.. it's actually going to be much more decentralized Instant Transactions unlike DPOS, but granted that sounds like it's a long way away and until implemented, doesn't do much for Nxt. Nxt has much more of a network effect going for it.
I'm comparing it to Nxt because BitShares is currently much like Nxt was in December of last year and both are POS and attract similiar crowds. It'd been in development for a few months and had a lot of potential and we all assumed that everyone else must see the same potential we did. But guess what, they didn't and never do. If they couldn't use it right now to do anything, then why buy it right now.. why not wait for the excitement to die down and see if it was actually going to have staying power. Granted FUD about the 'unfair' distribution didn't help, but Nxt is still just as revolutionary as BTSX, if not more as it figured out much of this stuff first.
But Bitshares has it's own brand of FUD people are spreading about it being centralized due to DPOS.. which is partially true given you can vote for multiple delegates. And if someone manages to get 51% of the delegates, they can simply choose to stop including transactions that allow holders to choose different delegates and suddenly BTSX is dead. Which is easier and cheaper when you only have to get 50 delegates by convincing people to vote for them without needing to actually buy 51% of the stake. I definitely suspect that something like that will start being used to try to scare people from BTSX and it will affect price.
I'm not trying to scare people just be realistic.. be aware that it is risky and odds are that the second phase of the first bubble will break soon. This whole talk of BTSX being revolutionary is part of the 'New Paradigm' that comes will all bubbles. Don't lose half your life savings because you invest it all in now realizing that BTSX has long term potential, then the price halves.. or more. Wait until after the price halves so you can buy twice as much! Just please, download the Nxt wallet found at nxt.org.. and tell me that you really think that BitShares has Nxt beat feature wise. BTSX has some improvements and features that Nxt has been slow to implement. I'm not saying switch to Nxt either.. just try to remove emotions and not lose too much money, especially if you're a little guy who can't afford to lose too much.
Oh and yes, SuperNet might be centralized currently, I think currencies are held via multi-sig.. I think that control of it will be gradually more and more decentralized as the Multi-Gateway is expanded and more currencies are added to MGW. Which is a really cool project by itself.. you can trade Nxt and BTC in a decentralized fashion!
Though 50% of all NXT are represented by only 28 large NXT accounts, 477 accounts are required to represent 95% of all NXT and 1317 accounts are required to represent 99% of all NXT. The largest single account represents 5% of all NXT, but only 25 accounts have more than 1% of all NXT in them.
On the other hand, the vast majority of NXT accounts are indeed very small compared to the big fish. 34.3% of all accounts have a zero balance, and 48.4% of accounts have never held more than 5 NXT (presumably these are primarily faucet accounts).
Collectively, this leads to a Gini index of inequality of 0.992 (0.986 eliminating "faucet" accounts). Basically, if NXT were a country, it would be the most unequal on the planet (Gini values for countries range from 0.25 in Scandinavia to 0.7 in some African countries). However, this isn't a fair comparison. Better would be to compare the NXT Gini index to that of a small- to medium-sized publicly traded company shortly after the IPO. I don't have these statistics, but I imagine someone does.
It's so funny how people involved in crypto will pick coins like they pick a sports team.
Team BTC, team NXT, team DOGE, team BTSX.
How about team blockchain technology?
You hear of team SuperNet? Might interest you.. it's a Nxt initiative to try to unite the coins. Basically a asset that will be backed by all of the major crypto players, holding on to a large chunk of many coins. Sort of like the first Mutual Fund for crypto. If any coins make it big, everyone invested makes it big. And let's face it.. we all know that some of the coins will do so, just that nobody is 100% sure which ones will stick around.
Does SuperNet has DPOS? IMO better products of crypto will battle it out for the most secured and innovative way of blockchain technology in terms of service it may render, as decentralized/distributed as possible. Mining is totally in obsolete stage. So services generate cashflow and stakes will be bigger as time goes by. Investors will surely want to have a slice of pie with this form of income generation. Bitshare is several miles ahead with DPOS plus company may adapt it to jumpstart their own decentralized business.
Here's the thing about it being a bubble.. what can customers currently do with it other than speculate or buy BitUSD? That makes it a bubble. Maybe a bubble within the stealth phase in the long run.. but a bubble none the less.
Anything you can do with BitShares, you can do with Nxt.. except you can also do far more with Nxt
Except granted DPOS is quite cool.. still not as cool as Nxt's upcoming Instant Transaction system.. it's actually going to be much more decentralized Instant Transactions unlike DPOS, but granted that sounds like it's a long way away and until implemented, doesn't do much for Nxt.
Nxt has much more of a network effect going for it.
I'm comparing it to Nxt because BitShares is currently much like Nxt was in December of last year and both are POS and attract similiar crowds. ...Nxt is still just as revolutionary as BTSX, if not more as it figured out much of this stuff first.
And if someone manages to get 51% of the delegates, they can simply choose to stop including transactions that allow holders to choose different delegates and suddenly BTSX is dead. Which is easier and cheaper when you only have to get 50 delegates by convincing people to vote for them without needing to actually buy 51% of the stake. I definitely suspect that something like that will start being used to try to scare people from BTSX and it will affect price.
Just please, download the Nxt wallet found at nxt.org.. and tell me that you really think that BitShares has Nxt beat feature wise. BTSX has some improvements and features that Nxt has been slow to implement. I'm not saying switch to Nxt either.. just try to remove emotions and not lose too much money, especially if you're a little guy who can't afford to lose too much.
Does NXT have market pegged assets?no
Does NXT have market pegged assets?
Does NXT have market pegged assets?no
Right when I heard of Nxt I dismissed it because of its name simple as that... its not going anywhere.
Bitshares = bitcoin but with shares... its an easy transition from bitcoin. Sorry but no matter how innovative nxt is its not going to achieve a household name with the silly title. Anyways it was enough for me to dismiss it and not buy or want to develop, and im sure many others... in your own words not trying to spread FUD just speaking the truth. Gluck!
And if someone manages to get 51% of the delegates, they can simply choose to stop including transactions that allow holders to choose different delegates and suddenly BTSX is dead. Which is easier and cheaper when you only have to get 50 delegates by convincing people to vote for them without needing to actually buy 51% of the stake. I definitely suspect that something like that will start being used to try to scare people from BTSX and it will affect price.
What does 'someone manages to get 51% of the delegates' even mean? And what does someone have to gain by breaking the network? Even if a 51% attack occurred, at that point BTSX would be forked and the 49% could say "have fun by yourself, dumbass" and continue as normal. Besides, 51% attacks are possible on all systems.. saying BTSX is more vulnerable that any other system is completely unfounded FUD. I'd be more fearful of majority NXT holders colluding on their forge than delegates being thwarted.
UPDATED: You only need the bottom 51, not the top.
Now that market cap of BTSX is reasonable high and the top 51 delegates have over 10% of the voting shares it's an interesting exercise figuring how much it would cost to unseat the top 51.
So with a market cap of $70MM USD the cost of unseating the 51 delegates would be:
50th delegate has 10.11% and the 101st delegate has 9.2% of the share votes for an average of say 10% of shares voted.
$70MM USD market cap. 10% is $7MM USD to buy enough votes to unseat all 51. That is of course assuming you could amass $7MM USD worth of BTSX without raising the price at all.
That leaves the attacker to ponder how they could net more than $7MM USD out of the attack.
Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.
See this historical graph:
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.
And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.
After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right? And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.
My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time. Anyone have any arguments for a different view?
Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either. Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.
I want to believe that BTSX will be 0.50 in 6 months, but is there anything tangible backing this claim other than speculation at this point?
Just having that nuclear option means it'll likely never need to be used.
what he means is basically a hard fork of the network ... if someone screws up the network miserably .. then DacSunLimited might need to do a hardfork to fix the issue and or block an attacker .. probably will never happen .. but has happend to bitcoin in march 2013 by a software bug and resulted in a hardforkJust having that nuclear option means it'll likely never need to be used.
can you please elaborate on how it could happen. I read what you and bytemaster said. But can you describe it in more detail please
If you do not know some of the powerful arguments for why it could be worth $0.50 in 6 months, you must be new to this forum. A few of the very powerful (though not quantitative) arguments I know about, which are most convincing to me, are the fact that everyone always talks about how Bitcoin is just the first draft of this decentralized technology, and that something far superior will eventually replace it, long term. Hence the term Crypto Currency 2.0.
Also, BitsharesX, as far as I can see, is vastly superior not only to Bitcoin, but to everything else out there, or even on the horizon. The second most powerful argument to me, is the fact that there is a critical need (i.e. HUGE demand) for a crypto currency that is Stable in price. BitUSD is the first technology that has now proven that this is possible. In other words, BitUSD, once sufficiently proven to everyone, could replace the US government as the largest distributor of USD denominated currencies or stores of value (i.e. more than all T-bonds issued by the US Governement). And even if only .0001% of that happens, the price of BTSX cold literally "go to the moon", or as THE bytmaster prefers to say: "Go to Mars, or even Pluto" simply because of all the BTSX collateral requited to enable that to happen. And I can think of a whole shitload of other arguments that are near as powerful as these, but there isn't space for all that here. If there are any BIG (as in convinces lots of people) arguments for anyone I've messed, I'd like to hear them.
Finally, are you familiar with exponential laws like Moore's Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law) and the more general Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns (http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns)? Gordon More helped Intel grow as much as they did by predicting the growth rate of Integrated Circuits with his very accurate predictions that came to be known as Moore's Law.
When I saw Bitcoin doing a very similar law like thing, over a very surprisingly long period of time, especially the last 10 times increase in 6 months, for a total of 7 times, I couldn't believe that could happen, so consistently, with something like Bitcoin. So I started thinking of this as the "Canonized law of the Crypto Currency" and figured if there was a 2.0 Crypto Currency, it could take over the growth were Bitcoin left off, just as Kurzweil predicts will happen with new paradigm shifts, in his generalized law of accelerating returns.
Sure, long term, the first non quantitative arguments I pointed out seem very powerful to me. But there is nothing quantitative about those long term predictions. To me, this Mores law is a very powerful argument, and not only that, it is a very quantitative argument, that puts some real numbers to things. It is just a general observation that very improbably things, when there is enough of these kind of megatrend things like this, they can become Law like.
And, disclaimer, this "Canonized law of Crypto Currency" http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2 (http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2) is not tied to Bitcoin, Bitshares or any individual currency. Just as Moore's Law didn't only apply to Intel Chips. It is just the decentralized peer to peer technology in general, and includes the market cap of all of them, combined.
I'd be interested if anyone else besides me thinks this could be a very powerful quantitative predictor of the future total value of all Crypto Currency, just as Moore's law still accurately and quantitatively predicts Chip densities.
THE bytmaster prefers to say: "Go to Mars, or even Pluto"
very nicely written.
we need that one on a shirt:QuoteTHE bytmaster prefers to say: "Go to Mars, or even Pluto"
+5%
UPDATED: You only need the bottom 51, not the top.
Now that market cap of BTSX is reasonable high and the top 51 delegates have over 10% of the voting shares it's an interesting exercise figuring how much it would cost to unseat the top 51.
So with a market cap of $70MM shares the cost of unseating the 51 delegates would be:
50th delegate has 10.11% and the 101st delegate has 9.2% of the share votes for an average of say 10% of shares voted.
$70MM USD market cap. 10% is $7MM USD to buy enough votes to unseat all 51. That is of course assuming you could amass $7MM USD worth of BTSX without raising the price at all.
That leaves the attacker to ponder how they could net more than $7MM USD out of the attack.
UPDATED: You only need the bottom 51, not the top.
Now that market cap of BTSX is reasonable high and the top 51 delegates have over 10% of the voting shares it's an interesting exercise figuring how much it would cost to unseat the top 51.
So with a market cap of $70MM USD the cost of unseating the 51 delegates would be:
50th delegate has 10.11% and the 101st delegate has 9.2% of the share votes for an average of say 10% of shares voted.
$70MM USD market cap. 10% is $7MM USD to buy enough votes to unseat all 51. That is of course assuming you could amass $7MM USD worth of BTSX without raising the price at all.
That leaves the attacker to ponder how they could net more than $7MM USD out of the attack.
I think it would be a major bonus for the entire network if someone did that... here is what would happen:
1) people would organize to vote them out...
2) if the attacker stopped transactions that voted for other people then DAC Sun would release a hard fork that burned the attackers shares and the network would continue... instant 10% dividend :)
Oh and I'm in close contact with the guy working on Instant Transactions, which is what initially drew me to Nxt, it is definitely taking too long, it's a big project though and until about a month ago was working a full time job and doing this in his spare time. Apparently just switched over to full time though. And it scales very nicely.. entirely world could switch to Nxt and the instant transaction system would scale. Other parts would break first. The other thing is that it apparently somewhat depends on Transparent forging, which isn't due until November, to be released on Nxt's first birthday.
Oh and I'm in close contact with the guy working on Instant Transactions, which is what initially drew me to Nxt, it is definitely taking too long, it's a big project though and until about a month ago was working a full time job and doing this in his spare time. Apparently just switched over to full time though. And it scales very nicely.. entirely world could switch to Nxt and the instant transaction system would scale. Other parts would break first. The other thing is that it apparently somewhat depends on Transparent forging, which isn't due until November, to be released on Nxt's first birthday.
Sounds too good to be true, to me. I'd be interested in knowing THE bytemaster's take on this. You know if he believed in it, he'd be busy integrating it into BitsharesX.
That's just it though, an attacked would not to have any stake in BTSX.. or barely any, just enough to be allowed to run a delegate. Then he maybe he spends some money convincing people to vote for him or giving giving back 100% of transaction fees to those that vote for him, or whatever. Given that people can vote for multiple delegates, a lot of people will vote for these delegates who are willing to work for free. Once the attacker gets the bottom 51% of delegates, he locks down the network.. and 51% attacks and you hurt trust in Bitshares, even if you do fork the blockchain.
Define "Instant"... on average a BTSX transaction takes 5 seconds to clear... with a small tweak we could reduce that to 2.5 seconds.
"What happens if 51 delegates collude?" is going to be a common question, no matter how small the likelihood of it actually happening.
you may forget that btsx is an international network .. i guess country politics will have their problems becoming an active delegate ..Quote from: OldMan"What happens if 51 delegates collude?" is going to be a common question, no matter how small the likelihood of it actually happening.
I can imagine a time when delegates are part of a political party. You'll have the BitShares equivalent of delegate.democrats and delegate.republicans. Voting one party in over another means that party has control of the network.
you may forget that btsx is an international network .. i guess country politics will have their problems becoming an active delegate ..Quote from: OldMan"What happens if 51 delegates collude?" is going to be a common question, no matter how small the likelihood of it actually happening.
I can imagine a time when delegates are part of a political party. You'll have the BitShares equivalent of delegate.democrats and delegate.republicans. Voting one party in over another means that party has control of the network.
Overall it takes 10 seconds to process a credit card swipe / print / sign. BTSX can already be faster than credit cards... so how "instant" do you really need?
"Faster than a credit card and safer than a bank."
Would get some serious attention.
you may forget that btsx is an international network .. i guess country politics will have their problems becoming an active delegate ..Quote from: OldMan"What happens if 51 delegates collude?" is going to be a common question, no matter how small the likelihood of it actually happening.
I can imagine a time when delegates are part of a political party. You'll have the BitShares equivalent of delegate.democrats and delegate.republicans. Voting one party in over another means that party has control of the network.
I don't mean that literally. I mean we'll have the BitShares equivalent.
2) if the attacker stopped transactions that voted for other people then DAC Sun would release a hard fork that burned the attackers shares and the network would continue... instant 10% dividend :)
So I don't understand how you can be pro-BTSX but anti-Nxt due to an 'unfair distribution'.
If it's that you are worried about too much of the network being controlled by people with big accounts.. the delegates could collude just as easily as forgers. It's not implemented yet but long term, 90% protection will be implemented.
If it's that you are worried about dumping.. you just said that someone owns ~10% of BTSX! It'd take multiple Nxt accounts all deciding to sell at the same time to achieve that level of dumping. Personally as a Nxt fan, I would love to see that level of dumping.
Yeah, wish I could say more about instant transaction method but it was posted at Nxtforum.org for 3 or 4 months for all to see, discussed with lots of other nxt developers, but the developer is staying quite about how it works currently, so I will too.
Who are you talking to? I don't see anyone being anti-NXT. And what's the 'long term, 90% protection'?
Are you talking about Nxt instant transactions?
How did you read about instant transactions a year ago? Were BTSX transactions available a year ago?
Because the initial idea within Nxt was only initially proposed 4 months ago. It was in May. A couple months of chatting and figuring out details, plus the guy quit his job a month ago to start working on them full time and doing the actual coding.
The only version that was available in December was BCNext's idea that you would only allow someone to instantly spend 10% of all your Nxt within a given 24 hours period, and the rest would be locked.
So I don't understand how you can be pro-BTSX but anti-Nxt due to an 'unfair distribution'.
If it's that you are worried about too much of the network being controlled by people with big accounts.. the delegates could collude just as easily as forgers. It's not implemented yet but long term, 90% protection will be implemented. In fact taking control of delegates is easier, yes it would be a lot of work but it say a group of 5-10 Counterparty people decided to do it, it would be doable with fake accounts and what not. Hard and unlikely to happen, yes.
If it's that you are worried about dumping.. you just said that someone owns ~10% of BTSX! It'd take multiple Nxt accounts all deciding to sell at the same time to achieve that level of dumping. Personally as a Nxt fan, I would love to see that level of dumping.
Yeah, wish I could say more about instant transaction method but it was posted at Nxtforum.org for 3 or 4 months for all to see, discussed with lots of other nxt developers, but the developer is staying quite about how it works currently, so I will too.
Taking control of 51 delegates is not easy in any way, but I don't know how it would compare to Nxt nor how much damage that could do in Nxt compared to BTSX, so can't really comment on that. My surely biased gutfeeling is that it would be less harmful in BTSX, but I don't have anything to back that up I'm afraid :)
Perhaps the best thing to do, prior to the spotlight arriving, is to say: 'Yes, there is an attack vector. Here is what is required for a successful attack. And here is the end result'.
...The majority of delegates will want to jump off the cliff, and only a few will be trying to do the right thing and change directions faster...
All these attack fears everyone has, I just do not see. It is all just a complete waste of time, and quite the distraction. How about we spend some time on something that is important?
In my opinion, the most significant risk, is something where the popular thing to do, is to jump off the cliff.
A good example is the popular thing in the Bitcoin community is POW and mining. There is a clear expert consensus that dPOS is far better, but the popular hurd isn't getting this expert minority message. So Bitcoin, Ether, and everyone is about to jump off the POW cliff. It will be nice for Bitshares, as we will lose some significant competitors, but it still hurts to see all of that about to die a miserable death. And that kind of loss will really hurt this industry, where if someone could get the herd to change directions sooner, we could progress much faster.
And with the complete lack of current governance systems with BTSX, it is only a matter of time before the BitsharesX community faces a similar issue. The majority of delegates will want to jump off the cliff, and only a few will be trying to do the right thing and change directions faster, possibly unsuccessfully or way to slow, leaving us very vulnerable, just as Ether is now very vulnerable to dPOS.
That risk, and a fork in the community (the splitter stellar currency has now killed ripple, or at best cut it in half) is what I most fear for BitsharesX.
What about everyone else? What do you see as the biggest risk?
...The majority of delegates will want to jump off the cliff, and only a few will be trying to do the right thing and change directions faster...
I'm not sure what you mean by this?
All these attack fears everyone has, I just do not see. It is all just a complete waste of time, and quite the distraction. How about we spend some time on something that is important?
In my opinion, the most significant risk, is something where the popular thing to do, is to jump off the cliff.
A good example is the popular thing in the Bitcoin community is POW and mining. There is a clear expert consensus that dPOS is far better, but the popular hurd isn't getting this expert minority message. So Bitcoin, Ether, and everyone is about to jump off the POW cliff. It will be nice for Bitshares, as we will lose some significant competitors, but it still hurts to see all of that about to die a miserable death. And that kind of loss will really hurt this industry, where if someone could get the herd to change directions sooner, we could progress much faster.
And with the complete lack of current governance systems with BTSX, it is only a matter of time before the BitsharesX community faces a similar issue. The majority of delegates will want to jump off the cliff, and only a few will be trying to do the right thing and change directions faster, possibly unsuccessfully or way to slow, leaving us very vulnerable, just as Ether is now very vulnerable to dPOS.
That risk, and a fork in the community (the splitter stellar currency has now killed ripple, or at best cut it in half) is what I most fear for BitsharesX.
What about everyone else? What do you see as the biggest risk?
...The majority of delegates will want to jump off the cliff, and only a few will be trying to do the right thing and change directions faster...
I'm not sure what you mean by this?
All grass roots, and beurocratic organizations have the same problem. First off, you can't do anything alone, especially with world finances like this. You need to have the largest herd possible. So, the problem becomes, how do you get the largest possible herd (get smart people to stop splitting), AND get that herd to make the drastic and often difficult to make changes necessary for survival and the most rapid possible progress, without getting bogged down by size.
And leading minds, like everyone creating all the Alt coins, are like cats. If we could all work together, efficiently and intelligently, everyone working together, rather than trying to kill everyone else, or hoping they die, we would have conquered the financial world by now.
There is always popular herding opinion, that is often not the best way to think, believe, and act. A few minority experts always see this first, but how do you make it easy for them to help the entire herd to get educated, and change directions as fast as possible.
I think that in the near future, the Bitshares community will be faced with an existential issue. If the herd does the right thing, instantly, they will survive, if they do the wrong thing (like Bitcoin is choosing to stay with POW) or if it takes too long to get all delegates to OK a change, we will die, or be significantly hurt, compared to what could be. You can already see this today - inability to get the entire herd to see the best rules to make for BitUSD and all that. Sure, THE bytemaster is the world's most brilliant person with all this, but we could do so much better, if everyone could communicate concisely and quantitatively. We need a quantitatively measurable way to determine what the experts believe is best. Like is possible at Canonizer.com, we could be progressing so much faster, without THE bytemaster bottleneck. We all need to be able to perform at his level, if we really want to change direction fast as a huge herd, without having lots of splitters. diluting or forking things.
I like to think that we love cold, hard truths in this community. That we can react accordingly, and cut off nostalgic attachment to ideas as they become dated.
(http://www.acalltoaction.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Man-Sculpts-Himself.jpeg)
Oh and I'm in close contact with the guy working on Instant Transactions, which is what initially drew me to Nxt, it is definitely taking too long, it's a big project though and until about a month ago was working a full time job and doing this in his spare time. Apparently just switched over to full time though. And it scales very nicely.. entirely world could switch to Nxt and the instant transaction system would scale. Other parts would break first. The other thing is that it apparently somewhat depends on Transparent forging, which isn't due until November, to be released on Nxt's first birthday.
Sounds too good to be true, to me. I'd be interested in knowing THE bytemaster's take on this. You know if he believed in it, he'd be busy integrating it into BitsharesX.
Shouldn't we recruit some of the core devs away from nxt?
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Shouldn't we recruit some of the core devs away from nxt?
...The majority of delegates will want to jump off the cliff, and only a few will be trying to do the right thing and change directions faster...
I'm not sure what you mean by this?
All grass roots, and beurocratic organizations have the same problem. First off, you can't do anything alone, especially with world finances like this. You need to have the largest herd possible. So, the problem becomes, how do you get the largest possible herd (get smart people to stop splitting), AND get that herd to make the drastic and often difficult to make changes necessary for survival and the most rapid possible progress, without getting bogged down by size.
And leading minds, like everyone creating all the Alt coins, are like cats. If we could all work together, efficiently and intelligently, everyone working together, rather than trying to kill everyone else, or hoping they die, we would have conquered the financial world by now.
There is always popular herding opinion, that is often not the best way to think, believe, and act. A few minority experts always see this first, but how do you make it easy for them to help the entire herd to get educated, and change directions as fast as possible.
I think that in the near future, the Bitshares community will be faced with an existential issue. If the herd does the right thing, instantly, they will survive, if they do the wrong thing (like Bitcoin is choosing to stay with POW) or if it takes too long to get all delegates to OK a change, we will die, or be significantly hurt, compared to what could be. You can already see this today - inability to get the entire herd to see the best rules to make for BitUSD and all that. Sure, THE bytemaster is the world's most brilliant person with all this, but we could do so much better, if everyone could communicate concisely and quantitatively. We need a quantitatively measurable way to determine what the experts believe is best. Like is possible at Canonizer.com, we could be progressing so much faster, without THE bytemaster bottleneck. We all need to be able to perform at his level, if we really want to change direction fast as a huge herd, without having lots of splitters. diluting or forking things.
Of course, your idea of "the right thing" may be very different from someone else's idea of "the right thing".
You say "we could do so much better, if everyone could communicate concisely and quantitatively" but...EVERYONE CAN'T.
Bottom line, everyone won't agree on everything so I don't think that's a reasonable expectation. Seems to me BM takes as much input as he can given the constraints and makes his best decision.
Regarding the dilution, splitters and forking, I don't think you can do too much about that unless someone gets a huge investment behind them and can be big enough to be the loudest voice and push the agenda.
Kinda like how bitcoin is now.
We are the straying cats to bitcoin as the current "establishment" crypto currency. After all, it's open source and smart people who think they have a better idea will try to make a go of it. I do agree that it can make for a confusing marketplace and decentralized decision making is not always pretty :).